Michael Sheridan in Mianzhu, China
Pick up your copy of Joy Division: Closer at WHSmith today

Chinese officials ignored warnings from five eminent seismologists that a strong earthquake would strike the mountainous province of Sichuan this year, including one forecast that almost exactly predicted the date of the tremor that killed more than 68,000 people.
The government appeared to be trying to suppress evidence of the warnings last week and none of the seismologists could be traced for an interview.
News of the warnings, disclosed on a Chinese scientist’s blog, has created a storm of criticism on the internet and deepened the rage of bereaved parents in ruined towns such as Mianzhu, where schools had collapsed on their pupils.
Sichuan journalists even dared to question the head of the State Earthquake Bureau. They demanded to know if it was true that the forecasts were dismissed because officials did not want anything to disturb preparations for the Olympic torch relay to pass through this month.
The journalists got no answer and there has since been little mention of the warnings in the official media; but there is no doubt that the documents cited are authentic.
The first forecast came in a highly technical article published by four seismologists in September 2006 in China’s Journal of Catastrophology.
The four, Long Xiaoxia, Yan Junping, Sun Hu and Wang Zuzheng, calculated that stress factors along the Sichuan-Tibet tectonic fault indicated that a quake measuring above 6.7 on the Richter scale would strike this year. They suggested the government should set up emergency headquarters and organise local disaster teams to train city dwellers and farmers in how to protect themselves.
There is no evidence anything was done. But the seismologists were not available to explain why. “You’re a journalist?” said an official at their university, contacted by telephone. “They are not supposed to accept any interviews, so just give up the idea.”
The fifth expert to issue a warning is said to be in seclusion, afflicted by heartache over the loss of so many children. Geng Qingguo, a renowned seismologist, had come out of retirement to present his dire predictions to a meeting of specialists on April 26 and 27.
Geng outlined his calculations that an earthquake of more than 7 on the Richter scale would occur along the boundaries of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai provinces. He even predicted that the most likely date would be within 10 days of May 8.
The scientist dispatched a copy of his findings to the State Earthquake Bureau in Beijing on April 30. Once again, nothing seems to have been done.
The quake struck with a Richter scale force of 7.9 on May 12.
None of this would be known but for the fact that one of Geng’s colleagues, Li Shihui of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, disclosed the whole story in his blog after the earthquake.
“His opinion was not accepted by the State Earthquake Bureau,” Li wrote, “and when he heard of the Sichuan earthquake he tried to cry, yet no tears would come, so heavy was his heart.”
Neither Li nor Geng is now available for comment, as the public anger intensifies. Access to the blog has been blocked by web censors.
“Yes, Dr Li used to be a researcher in our laboratory,” confirmed a woman official at the academy. “After the earthquake he published some articles that caused a big argument. But he has retired and we do not have his phone number. That is all I can tell you.”
Li’s rapid retirement appears to have come after the publication of an article detailing his blog and both sets of warnings by a veteran journalist, Ching Cheong, the chief China correspondent for The Straits Times of Singapore. “We do not know why the authorities chose not to act,” said Ching. “Some attributed it to the Olympics frenzy.”
Ching’s story was translated into Chinese and circulated on the internet, setting off a fire-storm of abuse from citizens.
It hurt most of all in places such as Mianzhu, where the Communist party secretary, Jiang Guohua, fell on his knees before anguished parents to implore them to abandon a protest march last week. Their children were among an estimated 9,000 to die when poorly built schools collapsed on them.
Mianzhu is populated by thousands of people living in tents among the ruins of its buildings. “A hundred people died in there,” said a local woman, Zhang Bing, 23, pointing to a bulldozer that gnawed at the rubble of a supermarket on the main square, where several bodies still lay entombed.
On one level the city of 500,000 exemplified the virtuous storyline that now appears mandatory for the state media. Nobody sat listless or idle in Mianzhu. Its citizens manifested the entrepreneurial resilience of the Chinese people. Shopkeepers busily erected stalls to peddle wares hauled from their wrecked premises. Families organised themselves to keep tents clean and neat.
An orderly queue formed to collect free hot rice, supplemented by meat and vegetables cooked by individuals. There had been not one instance of looting, people said.
Corporate China has piled in to the rescue alongside the state. China Mobile set up relay dishes and sold cheap mobile phones. Banks dispensed cash. China Post was even sorting the mail at an improvised outdoor centre.
On the outskirts of town, at least 20,000 souls congregated in a tent camp supervised by the People’s Liberation Army. It included an outdoor hospital where doctors and nurses continue to toil over broken bones and sickly old folk.
However, on another level Mianzhu could become a barometer of public opinion, as the initial shock or relief give way to more complex feelings.
Jiang, the local party secretary, explained the risks in a frank interview with China’s Nanfang Weekend newspaper. “At first I relied on my rank as party secretary to request those parents not to go to the streets with their protests,” he said. “But they turned a deaf ear to me and even the police couldn’t stop them.
“So I got on my knees, not because I was ashamed but because I was thinking of the hundreds of thousands of people in this city who are homeless, short of clothes and food, so that any protest like this could cause mass unrest. That’s been my biggest worry since the earthquake.”
Undaunted, the parents are discussing a march to Chengdu, the provincial capital. They have been banned from travelling on buses by the party secretary. One of them, Li Yan, said: “He’s always lied to us and tried to cover up the real situation.”
Explore your passion for food with the delights of Thai, Indian & Chinese cooking
In our new series, Tony Hawks takes a dry, wry look at modern life - junk mail, interminable meetings and snooty sales assistants
Read the training tips and advice that helped our London Triathletes
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
2007
£30,000
2006
£14,337
2008
£39,937
Great car insurance deals online
c.£75,000
GlosFirstmeansbusiness
Gloucestershire
Competitive package
Npower
Midlands
£
£32,795 - £41,545
Universitry of Southampton
Southampton
Competitive Package
Npower
West Midlands
1 & 2 Bed apartments
From £249,995
Great Investment, River Views
Great Dubai Investment Opportunities
from £89,950
low-cost ownership homes in London
Multi–Centre 9 Nights
From only £925pp
View thousands of properties online with your Vacation Rental People
£POA
List your property with two leading travel websites
£POA
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Globrix Property Search - find property for sale and rent in the UK. Milkround Job Search - for graduate careers in the UK. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Some of these posts with the benefit of hindsight never fails to fascinate me. These are natural disasters lol, not man made wars which although more easily predicted the outcome of which isnever for cretain eg. Iraq. The US could have done things diffently in Vietnam ... looking back! Nuked it!?
Glynn, Kingston,
Between this earthquake and Hurricane Katrina, I'd say that Katrina was forecasted more accurately. Still the preparation and response were far from satisfactory. And this in the world's most developed country. Natural disasters are exactly that: for authorities its a case of damn if you do or not.
Glynn, Kingston,
Fact is one of these guys had predicted major earthquakes before. So ignorance should be put out. Main point is this area is earthquake prone so why were buildings not built appropriately ?
Vic, Hong kong, Hong Kong
"our PLA is the best army in the world,PLA is better than other country"army even theUSA."
only coz PLA is saving you, not killing you, on this particular 6/4
you'll be ok just never ask Y scools fell but government buildings were ok.
Mei Guo Ren, Au mountain,
Now.i am in sichuan province,China. i know what happens here. In this earthquake ,my friends and my classmates and my countryman now all admire our government and our PLA ,i love them ,our PLA is the best army in the world,PLA is better than other country"army even theUSA.
wang zhen ya, Chengdu , China
To Timothy:
That's just lame. Its a well known fact that nuke sites were affacted in the quake, and more than 30 sources of radiation were buried by debris. If there was any 'accurate' warning, they'd have removed those nuke stuff beforehand, as the damage would be impossible to cover up.
Dan, London, UK
I can tell you.In 1976,there was a big earthquake in TangShan,China.Before the earthquake,many people found that there would be a strong earthquake,so they lived out of house for 5 days.Then,nothing serious had happened.All people go home.To people superise,the big earthquake happened on sixth day!
Zhang Hua, Tang Shan, China
There are some mis-information and mis-understanding here.
It is possible to predict big earthquake with some certainty.
The role of government is to inform the public and prepare for the potential damage but the Chinese government did none of it. Instead the government hide the information
Timothy, Boston, USA
The most ironic thing is that several local government posted on their website to denounce "rumors" that a big earthquake will hit and vowed to catch anybody spreading the "rumor"
After the earthquake hit, those postings were taken down very quickly. There were signs something about to happen.
Timothy, Boston, USA
To: CS, Sydney, Australia
You are right. Nobody can accurately predict earthquakes. Lack of response to a prediction is understandable. Imagine if the authorities had evacuated 60 million people in Sichuan and there was no earthquake. Wld the authorities be blamed?
No right to bash China!
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
To: Ana Pereira, Philadelphia, USA
Easy said than done. Can you kindly explain what happen in the Hurricane Katrina episode?
How do you explain when many people in Indonesia refused to evacuate even when a nearby volcano was about to blow its top and red alert given. Luckily it did not blow.
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
ridiculous. If you are looking to bash China there is plenty of scope but failure to predict a natural disaster can hardly be a good reason. nobody can predict earthquakes that accurately and evacuating people because something 'might happen' is not very clever.
CS, Sydney, Australia
The proof is in the pudding.. These scientists predicted the quake, one even had a date and that materialized.
It is impossible to evacuate a large number of people but it 's quite possible to move people away from the most dangerous, unreinforced masonery buildings, and organize tents areas.
ana Pereira, Philadelphia, USA
It is true the earthquake was predicted, having been in Katmandu - where a similar big quake is due on a 75 year "cycle" - the preparations can be just chaotic.
I'm not sure anything could prepare for this, but buildings could have been constructed better.
http://www.justgiving.com/tibetearthquake
Dawa, London, UK
This post is complete horsebleep. It isn't possible to predict the timing of earthquakes within decades, much less days. If it were, we'd never have earthquake casuaties in any country ever again.
So China willingly risked hundreds of thousands of lives for a torch relay? Stupid comment.
Larry, Shanghai, China
Could they have evacuated that many people even if they had known for sure?
Susan, Barry, S Wales
Unfortunately until there is international consensus on the exact method of earthquake predictions and its accuracy, no government is going to evacuate its citizens on the say-so of the odd academic.
The US could SEE Katrina coming their way and still failed to get its act together in time.
zl, London,
Most of the USGS predictions from the mainstream sources are in decades not days. Stan Deyo's work is more timely but he is placed on the fringe. The swarm methodology gives a likelihood but still not accurate within days.
Ed Hoarse, Cheyenne,
It is quite complicated to predict earthquakes. Even Americans cannot do so though they are famous for their advanced technology and facility. Then why blame Chinese government? What we need now is help and care, but not standing by aloofly. By the way, thank those who helped us in this distaster.
Francisca, xiamen, china
I believe that the next major earthquake will occur in Seattle area in US. It will match, or exceed Sichuan earthquake.
I am not a scientist nor adept at predicting things. And I hope that it will never happen. My whish is we meet such event, should it ever happen, better prepared.
Miron, Seattle, US
i have no comment but offer everybody 3 solid facts:
1.the communist official in this photo, lost his wife and child in this earthquake
2.china's State Earthquake Bureau mainly consists of the academics rather than the communist officials
3.United States Geological Survey has its website
tough?
Ran, York, UK
Earthquakes cannot be forecast - ask the Japanese and Californians! Evacuation of 100 million people is not an option - Sichuan has a pop. of 60 million. This story has been swirling around the Chinese internet and ignored by the media for good reason........
patrick moore, tokyo, japan
I think that's almost impossible to predict earthquakes at any country, so many scientists, whom should we believe? what did they based on to do the prediction? So, to be a journalist, ones should have and some commonsense knowledge about earthquakes!!!
Joey, Chongqing, China
China has easily five times if not more students studying geoscience than the US. They seem to pursue the hard sciences where US students seem to take easier road of social sciences or finance. (Panama also prefers tourism& finance) I'm not surprised that their knowledge extends to earthquakes.
ephilipp, Panama, Panama
There are a lot of extremely talented scientist, seismologists in China. Typically those kind of people would get nowhere near a seat of actual influence and authority, eg Director of the China Earthquake Bureau. They don't hold with seeking truth from scripts sent over by the Propaganda Bureau.
Linda Dial, Calgary, Canada
Are they "eminent seismologists" or "prominent seismologists?"
Jeremy P, Turlock, USA
It always takes a lot to awaken and mobilize the true power in any nation, the people..........the sleeping giant.
David Johnson, San Rafael,
Chinese can predict earthquakes that accurately? That's a lot better than in the US. I imagine the warnings were ignored at least partially because people didn't believe it.
rcfiver, Brussels, Belgium