James Bone at the Eduardo Frei Montalva Base, Antarctica
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Scientists welcomed Ban Ki Moon to Antarctica with a glass of Johnny Walker Black Label served “on the rocks” with 40,000-year-old polar ice. But the researchers delivered an alarming message to the UN Secretary-General about a potential environmental catastrophe that could raise sea levels by six metres if an ice sheet covering a fifth of the continent crumbles.
The polar experts, studying the effects of global warming on the icy continent that is devoted to science, fear a repeat of the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf. The 12,000-year-old shelf was 220 metres (720ft) thick and almost the size of Yorkshire.
“I was told by scientists that the entire Western Antarctica is now floating. That is a fifth of the continent. If it broke up, sea levels may rise as much as six metres,” Mr Ban said after being briefed at the Chilean, Uruguayan and South Korean bases during a day trip to King George Island, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula.
For Mr Ban, a media-shy former South Korean Foreign Minister, to travel to Antarctica was a dramatic gesture aimed at highlighting his personal concern over global warming. Accompanying the UN chief was his wife, Yoo Soon Taek. The meticulously dressed couple had to don padded polar trousers and anoraks in the hold of a Chilean military transport aircraft during the 2½hour flight from Punta Arenas, southern Chile.
Mr Ban skipped a three-course lunch that the Chilean Air Force had prepared so that he could land by ski-plane on the retreating Collins glacier. “What we have seen is very impressive and beautiful,” he said. “But at the same time it can be disturbing too.”
Eduardo Frei Montalva Air Force Base, a year-round settlement of corrugated-iron cabins belonging to Chile, lies in one of the world’s worst “hot spots” – temperatures have been rising 0.5C (0.9F) a decade since the 1940s. The base is still coated in thick snow and the bay still frozen because of an unusually harsh Antarctic winter. The temperature for the UN chief’s visit was a tolerable minus 4C (25F). The arrival of the austral summer would normally have turned the ground to mud by this time of year. Yet scientists say that what matters for the polar ice is not how cold it gets in winter but how hot it gets in summer. And they are alarmed at the extremes of temperature.
Sang Hoon Lee, the chief of the South Korean research station, said: “The most evident change is the retreat of the glacier in front of the Korean station, which has been more than one kilometre in the past 50 years. That means very, very serious global warming is taking place.”
Gino Casassa, a Chilean member of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said: “The climate change here in the past ten years has been up to ten times the global average.”
The change was predicted by John Mercer, a glaciologist, he said. The late Dr Mercer, who worked at Ohio State University, theorised that the collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula could be a harbinger of the disintegration of the much larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise global sea levels by six metres over the course of a century.
His warning was first published in the journal of the International Association of Scientific Hydrology in 1968, but attracted little attention until it was published in Nature magazine a decade later. Now it has the UN Secretary-General’s attention as he prepares for a UN climate change conference in Bali next month aimed at trying to agree limits on “greenhouse gas” emissions once the restrictions specified by the Kyoto Protocol expire in 2012. Before that Mr Ban will go to Valencia, in Spain, for the launch on Saturday of a fourth and final report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, summing up the findings of the panel’s 2,500 scientists.
The panel’s last major report, in 2001, predicted that the Antarctic ice cap would grow in size in the 21st century before shrinking and adding “several metres” to global sea level “over the next 1,000 years” – a finding that the panel is now expected to reassess.
“This is an emergency. For an emergency situation we need an emergency act,” Mr Ban said before his flight back to Chile. “We have resources. We have financing. Only lacking is political will.”
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Having an article like this with the words 'floating' only plays into the hands of the global warming denial conspiracy. That had me worried about the sense of the message until I read the comments about the difference between floating freely in the ocean and becoming unstable by resting on a layer of trapped water. (Those clarifications won't be there for the readers of the paper edition, who will either be baffled or lose confidence in the truth of your paper). Please get articles about science checked by someone with a science background before printing, so that for example words such as floating can be explained further.
andrew, london, uk
It has always been the same when reading reporting of global warming, climate change etc. Someone blows it with regard to the "facts". Is it journalistic licence - putting words into, in this case, Mr Moon's, mouth. Did he really say that, or worse still, did a "scientist" tell him that, water levels will rise when the ice melts. Until people stop inventing alarming phrases, and tell the truth, there will always be sceptics making the case against the trend.
Jim, Norwich, uk
There is a confusion about the West Antarctic ice sheet. It is not floating but sitting on rock below sea level. This is from NASA climatologist James Hansen:
"We see that the ice streams have doubled in their speed on Greenland in the last few years and even more concern is west Antarctica because it's now losing mass at about the same rate as Greenland, and west Antarctica, the ice sheet is sitting on rock that is below sea level. So it is potentially much more in danger of collapsing and so we have both the evidence on the ice sheets and from the history of the Earth and it tells us that we're pretty close to a tipping point, so we've got to be very concerned about the ice sheets."
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1870955.htm
Matt, Sydney, Australia
I guess the Times is betting on the stupidity of its readers.
Floating ice does not raise water levels when it melts.
Once again AGW promoters play their gullible sheep for fools.
hunter, houston, USA
Nobody can argue with you that the climate is changing. It always has and always will. 4,000 - 5,000 years ago the ocean was 18 degrees warmer than it is now. What is missing is proof that the warming is man made, sunspots, or other natural items. Until then, I believe spending resources on "solving" global warming is wasteful.
Al, Bel Air, MD, USA
Have any of the experts considered the possibilty that the global and antarctic warming is coming from beneath the surface? Fifty eight years ago when I was 12 years old I knew about the unfrozen lakes in the antarctic regions. Could it be that the undergound activity might be increasing? It was recently discovered that there are over 220,000 under the surface sea vents over the world. The sun is also a consideration. Water vapor is the MAIN greenhouse gas. We don't want to eliminate that. It only makes up more than 95 % of the greenhouse gases. The worriers are really power hungry when you get down to it.
Michael Rondeau, Las Vegas, NV USA
Do a bit of research before assuming that geologists and geophysicists do not know that free floating ice does not displace any additional water as the ice melts.
Ice sheets are masses of ice that are grounded. Over time, the ice moves to the sea. When the ice reaches a point where it is fully displaced (floating) in the sea the ice becomes an ice shelf.
Much of the land beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is below sea level. However, other than a few ice streams, the ice shelf was previously grounded on that land.
Melt water has accumulated below the ice sheet tens or even a few hundreds of feet. The sheet is floating on that trapped water. It is not, however, floating in the ocean so it has not yet displaced any oceanic water.
Also, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains about 2.2 million cubic kilometers of ice. The world's oceans cover about 335 million square kilometers. If the ice sheet were to completely melt, it would add a bit over 6 meters to the oceans' depth.
Paul E. Tickle, Baltimore, MD, USA
So, 1/5th of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is now "floating". That is a lot of ice, particularly as 2007 saw the greatest extent of ice ever recorded in Antarctica. Before I lose my mind in panic, I'd like a few questions answered.
1. What was the ice doing before?
2. How can this be happening as there is no warming in Antarctica, apart from on the Peninsula which is only about 2% of the total area?
3. Why didn't the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf cause any sea level rise?
4. Given that the Antarctic ice sheet is at its greatest ever recorded extent, does that make matters better or worse?
T
Tom, Shenington, UK
If one fifth of the continent is floating, the ocean levels cannot rise in the event of the ice breaking up and/or melting. It is no different than an ice cube melting in a glass of water. The level remains the same. The floating ice displaces the water. This is basic logic!
Carl - Glendora, CA USA
Carl, Glendora , California USA
Let's not forget, the eastern end of Antarctica is actually growing, anyone heard that one? Only if you look for it. And kudos to the people who think, engineering 101.
adigerol, Boulder, co
to Adam and Bill. There has been many reports of how the surface ice melts and runs down through cracks in the ice which lubricates the ice attached to rock. The ice on western Antarctica is on land but is literally floating on a layer of water. So if the ice shelves were to disintegrate, the whole ice pack on land which measures thousands of feet thick would slide into the ocean, raising sea levels 18 ft around the world. I hope this clears things up for you.
Chris , Colorado Springs, USA, Colorado
Even if these alarmist predictions were true (and based on past track record of climate alarmists this is extremely unlikely), this supposed fact (that "the ice is melting") in no way shape or form proves or even implies that man's activities have anything to do with this melting or that we can do anything about it. Only the politically biased climate models using bogus positive feedback mechanisms "prove" this association, and never seem to match reality when tested. Polar ice melting/accumulating cycles have gone on for milenia and a very long time before we were on the scene.
E. Grau, Huntington Beach, CA., USA
A few days ago I saw a sientific report with a similar topic.
There were numers about
China (now 5 mio cars in 20+ years about 500 mio. cars)
India (now 12 mio cars in 20+ years about 500 mio cars)
So whatever we do know int the west will not work if the asians by 8 cylinder US-Cars. Not even if they use normal small european cars.
As I can see the leader of this world acting I guess the poeple
living in the low lands better sell their houses and buy
house boats.
Klaus , Stuttgart , Germany
âI was told by scientists that the entire Western Antarctica is now floating. That is a fifth of the continent. If it broke up, sea levels may rise as much as six metres,..."
If it's already floating, how would it raise sea levels if it melted? That makes no sense whatsoever... it's already displacing it's own weight in water.
Bill Pearce, Jacksonville, FL US
when the ice which is floating on water melts, it does raise the water lrvel by a minimal.However what is happening in this acse is that the LAND ICE(i.e., the frozen ice-landmass constituting the antartic) has now started to melt and not just the ice floating on water.The rest requires elementary knowledge of the laws of physics to understand how it is going to create a huge increase in the sea levels.Ignoring a warning does not ward off the danger.It is a matter of survival of the human race , and so having an ostrich like approach is not going to help anybody.
Manisha rudra, Kolkata, India
What does it matter what the exact sea rise would be. We can assume that the calculation was based on reasonable physics and that the figure stated is equally within the realm of the possible. However, because of the tendancy of humanity to congregate near coastlines the result of a sea level rise of even one quarter of this amount would flood the homes of about one quarter of the worlds population, including most of Bangladesh and London. Such items as this are alarmist, but alarms are there to be listened to. The next IPCCC report comes out this week, diluted as usual by political control, and probably without reference to this latest prediction. Despite its under estimates it will again be decried by politicians whose jobs depend on not worrying electors or donors. It is to be hoped that we will eventually get to the stage when majority opinion overcomes self-interest and the exploitation of the earth's resources and the generation of waste material cannot continue.
Peter LEES, Radstock, UK
Adam, you need to talk with Eve...
For, we are talking about the displacement of a solid mass in water - as things are actually.
What if this solid breaks away and "strays", turning into a liquid, melting into the ocean currents .... ?
Cause and effect.
Nothing is static.
Jeffrey Moore, Toulouse, France
Obviously what we need in order to understand these types of predictions are the scientific calculations that appear to support them.
If the sea levels would rise by six metres then it should be shown how this number has been calculated only then can we know how much credence to give to that research. We need to be aware of how the scientists have calculated the volume of ice that might turn to water and how that in turn affects the land adjacent.
Alan C, Llanerchymedd, UK
If this ice sheet isactually floating it will have already displaced its weight of sea water. Hence the rise in sea water levels will be miminal as majority of floating ice is submerged. Can't we have a really debate and reporting o what is happening instead of sensational head lines.
Capt E.J. Fitch
Edmund Fitch, Lewes, UK
Hm. I found it quite ironic that the climate models directly contradict the predictions made in the article. This means that this is most likely a local phenomena, which has nothing to do with the "global warming". In other words - the end of the world is not here yet.
gringo, Hillsboro, Oregon
It is not really "floating ice". These ice masses are actually "ice shelves" (100-1000 metres thick ) grounded on the continent, "hanging" like a cantilever, and mostly emerging from the ocean (unlike sea ice, which is eight ninths submerged). Thus, melting of antarctic ice shelves would add huge volumes of water to the oceans.
antoni, San Luis Potosi, Mexico
âI was told by scientists that the entire Western Antarctica is now floating. That is a fifth of the continent. If it broke up, sea levels may rise as much as six metres,â
This makes no sense. If it's floating, it has already displaced the water meaning, sea levels shouldn't rise any more.
adam, Leeds, UK