Ministers will defy public concern over gang violence by claiming today that crime is falling at a record rate.

Even before the final figures for the British Crime Survey (BCS) were in, Whitehall officials had already begun drawing up plans to trumpet the reduction in offences, The Times has learnt.

The survey, published today, will state that crime is falling in all 43 police forces in England and Wales and that the Government has exceeded its key target of cutting offences by more than 15 per cent since 2003. Its release comes at a time when the credibility of official statistics is being questioned. Senior police are worried about shortcomings in recording two major areas: knife and gun crime.

Despite a recent series of stabbings, the survey will conclude that knife crime is stable. The researchers interview 47,000 people aged 16 and over about their experience of crime over the previous 12 months. They cannot capture the extent of knife crime because they do not interview under16s.

Other figures to be released today will show that police recorded about 20,000 serious offences involving knives last year, including grievous bodily harm, attempted murder, woundings and robbery. It is the first time such figures have been collected.

The BCS will show that violent crime is down but that drug offences are up. The Times understands that it will show a fall in offences from 12.3 million in 2002-03 to about 10.3million in 2007-08. It will be argued that crime has fallen by 30 per cent since Labour came to power in 1997.

At a meeting of the National Policing Board in May - minutes of which have been seen by The Times - ministers and civil servants discussed how best to promote their message. Sir David Normington, Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, “congratulated all concerned on a remarkable performance” and the meeting “discussed the lack of recognition that had been given to such impressive figures”.

Stephen Cahill, of the Police and Crime Standards Unit, said that the Government should “claim success”. He added: “Resources would be committed to getting the message across.”

Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, told the meeting that congratulations were in order and said she hoped that there would be more public recognition of the cut in crime.

The survey will reignite the debate on the validity of crime figures. Sir Ian Blair, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, complained last month that the public did not believe crime statistics because they were compiled in an absurd and bewildering way.

He said in a lecture: “In London, there is almost no public faith in the crime figures.”

The commissioner called for a new set of “simple and credible” statistics. He is one of several police chiefs who have warned ministers of “the paucity of information on guns” and called for a concerted intelligence effort to discover where criminals get guns.

Assistant Chief Constable Jon Murphy, who is working on a policing project to develop a clearer picture of organised crime and gang activity, told The Times: “A lot of weapons have been seized over the last 12 months. But has that affected the level of gun crime? No, it hasn’t. We don’t know how many there are [in criminal hands].”

Ministers and the Home Office insist that the British Crime Survey gives a better reflection of crime in England and Wales than police figures, which cover only offences reported to officers. However, by not interviewing under16s the survey misses the extent of juvenile crime. Nor does it include crimes committed against businesses.

Marian Fitzgerald, Visiting Professor of Criminology at the University of Kent, said that the survey also failed to capture the extent of violence because of difficulties in gaining access to households in high-crime areas. She said: “The people who are most at risk of crime and serious violent crime are young men in inner cities. For the last decade social surveys have found it difficult to get into these areas.”

As a result, she said, the survey offered a more comforting picture to ministers about the extent of violence.

The Government will publish plans today for police reform, including giving elected mayors control over local policing services. The move is intended to encourage a greater take-up among local councils of directly elected mayors. A bureaucracy czar is to be appointed with the aim of cutting police paperwork and getting more officers on to the streets. There will also be direct elections for some members of police authorities who currently operate as watchdogs to local forces.

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