Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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The Gordon Brown bounce is real but it is neither large nor unconditional enough for Labour to entertain realistic hopes that it has turned the corner.
Mr Brown has seen a marked upturn in both his own self-confidence and his poll ratings. He has banished the dithering gibe and has appeared decisive and in command as the British rescue plan has been followed by other countries. He even had the rare pleasure of a warm welcome from eurozone leaders in Paris. His nonstop public performances are assured, while the Conservatives appear incoherent and ineffective. Leadership speculation is silenced. So Labour MPs are smiling for the first time in a year.
That all matters, not least to the Government’s morale. However, comparisons to the Falklands conflict and the bounce that boosted Mrs Thatcher’s ratings in 1982 are misleading. The situations are wholly different. And trying to draw parallels with the current dispute with Iceland, a sideshow, are ludicrous. The Falklands was a short-lived and self-contained event. Current economic troubles are not only likely to last a long time, but their impact will be much more wideranging.
First, the figures. Labour has advanced from a low of 26 to 27 per cent between May and August, according to the average of all published polls, to above 30 per cent in seven of the last eight polls, and an average of 31 to 32 per cent so far this month. But this has been largely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, as the Tories have slipped only from 45 to 46 per cent to an average of 43 to 44 per cent. As politicalbetting.com has noted, Labour needs the “Tory share to get consistently below 40 per cent before it can harbour any thoughts about David Cameron being stopped from getting a majority”.
By contrast, in 1982, as UK Polling Report has pointed out, the Tories moved from just behind, or level pegging, with Labour and the then Alliance, at about 33 per cent, before the Falklands conflict to the mid40s afterwards, with Labour down to well under 30 per cent. That is a real bounce.
Secondly, while Mr Brown’s personal rating is up, he is trusted to handle the present crisis and the rescue plan has majority support, this has not altered the underlying public mood. According to last week’s Populus poll, two thirds agree that it is “time for a change”. The latest YouGov poll shows that half the public thinks that the Government was too slow in acting and a big majority is pessimistic about the outlook for the economy and house prices.
Mr Brown is now in a stronger political position than even a few weeks ago. He has earned a second chance. But this is before the recession starts to bite, unemployment rises and real living standards are squeezed. The current bounce may not be sustained.
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"He has earned a second chance." Eh???
After 11 years on his watch?? I don't think so.
And the fact that he relishes in our misery?
He is doomed, come 2010, or sooner.
tone, cambridge,
why should gb benefit? he has been in charge for the last 11 years....it all happened on his watch.
and i detest that he is now "happy"...when so many millions are not.....Don't worry GB, in 2010 we will remember who got us into this mess....
tone, cambridge,
Pessimism on house prices is a matter of perspective - first-time buyers should feel optimistic.
Let us not forget that having to bail-out banks puts the UK in the minority alongside the likes of Iceland (as well as the US of course). Whatever happened to "better prepared to weather the storm"?
Paul, Reigate,
Singh Leeds ,we don't know if the nationalisation of NR has worked yet! They still owe the government billions and if house prices fall they won't be able to pay it back. Gordo has saved face but it is by no means certain that he has saved the country ! the taxpayer hasn't been given the bill yet.
Neal, Reading,
GB was ahead in the polls in summer 2007 then came the northern rock saga, correct me if i'm wrong but didn't the tories oppose the nationalization of the rock and slated Brown and Darling for being left wing nuts. So it turns out brown was right all along and it seems the U.S and Europe think that.
singh, leeds, uk
All Brown has done is thrown taxpayers money at a problem he helped cause so he does not deserve any accolades for that. If pundits think he has recovered ground then it's way past time the electorate was invited to comment and that means an early General Election.
R J Cook, Welwyn Garden City, England
Gordon Brown for Chancellor.
Alistair Darling for PM.
Ivan de Nemethy, London, Murder Mile
Would Cameron and Osborne be doing anything different, or even as much, if they were in power instead of Brown? I think not. In fact, the latest accusation from them of Brown's "triumphalism" sounds suspicially like sour grapes to me, since a glowing spotlight is on him and not them.
K Philips, London, UK
Graham Bromley. Have you forgotten that Gordon Brown was in the treasury for 10 years? If Thatcher is to blame (18 years after she left office) then surely Brown doing nothing for a decade to her reforms means he is also culpable? Brown's inaction on these reforms means he agreed with them.
KGE, Chelmsford, England
It's a bit early to be assessing the political landscape. However - if you insist.......Labour's strategy is - one step at a time. Get nearer to the Tories in the polls and that sets the scene for the roughest, dirtiest scrap in uk political history. Why do you think Campbell and Mandleson are back?
John , Leeds, UK
Total rubbish. Brown does not deserve a second chance. he MAY have retrieved the situation he helped create, but don't forget hos dumb policies helped put us into recession before the credit crunch became today's crisis.
Neil Murphy, Cromer,
I don't think anyone will understand your view about McBroon getting a "second chance" - a second chance at what? He's had a thousand chances and made a mess continuously.
Do you keeping engaging a tradesman who continually does a bad job and keeps increasing his rates?
No more chances !!
Padraig, Perth, Australia
so let me get this right keithw, the crash in the rest of the world is the fault of Gordon Brown? are you for real? smell the coffee. The loosening of the fiscal rules re borrowing started under thatcher, before her you needed a deposit to buy anything on credit, no deposit, no finance.
Graham Bromley, Rotherham, South Yorks
Keep taking the medication if you beleive that. Having to take desperate measure to try to fix something you helped ruin, will not get any stay of execution for this totally inept Governement.
If it did the people of the Uk deserve all they get repeated like the last 10 years.
KeithW, Wirral, UK