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Britain is set to become Europe’s most highly populated nation within two generations, driven by immigration.
Forecasts published by the European Commission suggest that Britain will overtake Germany within 50 years as the population rises from 60.9 million today to 77 million.
The projected 25 per cent increase triggered renewed calls for the Government to stem the flow of immigration, which has surged since Labour came to power 11 years ago. Increasing population, together with a rise in the number of elderly people, will heap further pressure on public services, particular the NHS.
Dominic Grieve, the Shadow Home Secretary, said that the report showed a coherent strategy was needed to deal with population growth. “This not only requires an annual limit on immigration, which takes into account its impact on the public service infrastructure and cohesion,” he said, “it also requires us to tackle other issues like family breakdown which have a direct effect on resource use in our country, as well as to improve our skills base.”
A Home Office spokesman said that the Government was introducing a points-based immigration system to ensure only those individuals that Britain needed could come here to work or study. “The points system is flexible, allowing us to raise or lower the bar according to the needs of business and the country as a whole,” he said.
The latest figures suggest that the number of people over the age of 80 in Europe will almost triple from 22 million to 61 million within 50 years, when there will be two people of working age to support every pensioner. The current ratio is four to one.
While Britain’s population is set to rise by a quarter, the biggest increases will be in smaller countries. The population of Cyprus will rise by 60 per cent and those of Ireland and Luxembourg by more than 50 per cent, the Commission estimates.
The population of France, which has the highest birth rate in Europe, will increase to 72 million, while Spain will grow from 45 million to 52 million. Germany, by contrast, will shrink from more than 82 million inhabitants to about 70 million, because of a trend towards smaller families.
The populations of 14 of the EU’s 27 members are expected to be smaller in 50 years than now. The most significant changes will be in countries that have joined the EU only recently. The population of Bulgaria is forecast to fall by 28 per cent, Latvia by 26 per cent, Lithuania 24 per cent, Romania 21 per cent and Poland 18 per cent.
EU statisticians predict that within seven years deaths will outnumber births and that the only source of population growth will be migration as people on Europe’s eastern and southern flanks look to improve their lot by emigrating to the Union.
In the short-term, the number of citizens in the EU is expected to rise from 495 million today to 521 million by 2035. But from this peak, it will gradually decline to 506 million in 2060.
A European Commission spokeswoman said: “We are concerned with finding out whether our member states will be able to pay for the costs linked to ageing, and whether future generations will not be overburdened.”
Tom Clougherty, the policy director at the Adam Smith Institute, said that the projected 25 per cent increase in Britain’s population would have a significant impact on infrastructure and public services. “The main implications will be for housing and transport, both of which are already in short supply,” he said.
“In the former, we have a market that is restricted by planning regulations, preventing developers from meeting demand, while in the latter there has been a lack of government investment.”
Public services would also come under strain. “In healthcare the rationing that we are seeing already is likely to get worse,” he said.
However, John Salt, from the Migration Research Unit at University College London, said: “I do not think anybody is really in a position at the moment to plan for what is likely to be happening in 50 or 60 years time. There are too many variables. For instance, we do not know how long the present trend on net migration is going to continue.”
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How ironic that a European Commission spokesman voiced concern as to how 'states' (we are a country, not a state) would cope. If it wasn't for the open door policy forced upon us by the EU we would be able to cope a lot better and would have more chance of monitoring our own immigration.
Victoria , London, England
Interesting reading the comments here - it seems like many folks have long forgotten during the last Tory election campaign how Michael Howard was saying that immigration was out of control. The New Liar voters had their chance THEN to do something about the problem....
Gail, France,
With out immigrants this country would fall apart. So stop moaning about or do something about it. British public didn't complain when they were taking money from those immigrants. You are just repaying the debth. Simple you see.
Marko, Birmingham, UK
Immigration from EU you cant stop so stop moaning about it. Immigr. from the other parts of the world you can, so do something about it. The gov has a point system so they are doing something about it.Also remove all illegal immigrants, Why? Because they are ILLEGAL. But there is no will to do this,
harj, birmingham, uk
If Scotland and Wales go their separate ways the Labour Party will find it almost impossible to win elections in England.
Unless they can alter the population structure in England, which they can do by promoting massive immigration, which is what they have done.
Just looking after themselves.
J.Cresswell, Matlock,
Things change; economic slowdown=lower influx and more departures, at least with regard to income motivated groups (new EU ms). Still, the welfare for everyone drive does seem to put greater strain on social spending without producing much in return. Come to Hackney, London, and see for yourselves.
Simon, London,
"Following the publication of the Green Paper The Path to Citizenship on 20 February we have analysed the views of the 598 written responses to our proposals"
454 - from migrants, non British citizens living outside the UK and organisations
So 144 Brits took time to comment - Enough said!
S Good, London,
At no stage was voter consent obtained for Labour's approach to immigration - which is clearly shown by this report to have had a huge and lasting effect on the nature of this country.
Surely, the Labour Government's actions over its three terms in office have therefore been illegal.
Frank, Winchester,
This "government" has failed us: Lax immigration, poor management of finances, violent crime, weak civil liberty, and misguided devolution. I was not a natural Tory voter but I see that a vote for any other party than Tory risks waking up the next morning to find five more years of.... Labour!!
Hector, Wokingham,
If the whole of the UK were at the same population density as the SE of England, the UK's population would be around 190 million. But at this point, we would have to import all of our food if not water as well.
Michael, Edinburgh, UK
No. The UK's infrastructure is struggling to cope as it is with crowded roads, creaking rail and massively expensive housing. UK born citizens are having to make compromises to suit the governments rabid policy of immigration.
It's time to shut the gates for a generation or two.
Paul, London,
The end result of this disaster will be famine. Farmland will have to be reduced in order to make way for housing. This is already happening across the nation. WE will become more dependent on other nations who are also reducing their agricultural land to make way for shopping centres and houses!
Matt, Naples, UK
So we import immigrants to pay our pensions? And who is going to pay theirs? Oh yes that right, we import more immigrants?????? Sack the Government!
Teresa, Norwich, UK
And then the talk about saving the evironment??????????????
Steve, York, UK
Since the British people are almost unanimously against this level of immigration, can someone tell me why it is being permitted? This appears to be proof that democracy is something of a sham in the UK.
Simon , London, UK
We have the crappiest housing in Europe, over-crowded schools, a health care system that rations everything and our prisons are over-flowing. Couple this with rising unemployment & 2.6 million on Incapacity Benefit and you have paradise! We've been sold down the river by our Political Masters!
Graham, St Albans, uk
As I have said before, 60+ million people in a country the size of the UK is insanity. What are you all going to do for food/fuel/raw materials when importing them becomes too costly/impossible because of rising world costs?
Write to your MP/PM and tell them you want a change to the immig. rule.
Mal, Edmonton,
This is exactly what New Labour has wanted all along - to dilute and disenfranchise the indigenous population to such an extent that they become foreigners in their own country. Voting Conservative will do nothing to prevent this, and voting Lib Dem will simply accelerate the process.
Andrew, London, England
We are told the population of Britain has gone up but Wales
2.5 million & Scotland 5 Million still have the same population
as when l was at school 35 years ago, so it's the English
population that grows, in a country of 50,000 square miles,
same size as Greece- Pop 10 MiL, England-Pop 51 MiL.
Roger, Weymouth, England
But we need all those immigrants to keep BTLs in business!
Paul, Coventry,
Enough already, who is responsible for this criminal lack of control, when was this sanction requested and given?
Deportations should start immediately.
Dave, Chorley,
This will knock government targets for CO2 emissions into a cocked hat.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
The vast majority of immigrants have come from Non EU countries (Office of National Statistics). Much of this comes from allowing easy entry for the relations of the immigrant. This, combined with returning to find a spouse from their home country, makes Non EU immigration out of control
David Cartright, Birmingham,
I don't vare who comes here as long as they look like us and speak Englishand don't bring nasty foreign habits into our society
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
The big question is if the number of jobs available and the welfare state, NHS etc. will simply be able to scale up to cope with all these extra people. We are faced with the sate being responsible for feeding and housing 10s of millions of people, where will money will come from?
Alan Wilson, Sheffield,
This is partly due to Labour's policy of 'no limit to immigration' (thanks Blunkett) & failure to tackle illegals. Remove welfare/NHS rights for new migrants. Immigration from 3rd world countries must stop & we shd only allow in those who have skills we need. Otherwise the BNP will be beneficiaries
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Wow!!!! The country is already overcrowded and housing almost impossible. Where will all these people go?
77million people ???? For God's sake I will be dead by then...:)
pascal-pierre, Dinan, Brittany, France, European Union
We should scrap the army of bureaucrats in our embassies and high commissions with the power to refuse or allow entry to the UK, using the money instead to set up close monitoring of immigrants. Those who want to contribute positively to our society won't mind a touch of Big Brother for a few years.
Barry, Wallington, UK
Why do we have this obligation to accept new immigrants, regardless of circumstance, has our pc society made it impossible to disallow all new applicants. With unemployment at an all time high, even qualified foreigners will end up claiming benefit.
Daniel, Woodstock, England
Edward Smith,
That is far from the truth. Canadians, Americans, Australians, Kiwis? These people integrate better than someone from Bulgaria surely? What we don't need is skilless third world immigration, asylum seekers, and people who don't integrate well and that seek a pluralist society.
Alex, London, England
If the current pensioner : worker ratio is four to 1 and likely to fall lower to 2:1 then surely immigration of all foreign workers should be actively encouraged. It could ease the pressure on the pensions system and also reduce the tax burden on uk born workers.
greg , bristol, uk
Erm...where are they proposing to put them all? It's not like we're a huge nation with infinite resources.
This is batty given the current economic/environmental climate. Our services are already creaking at the seams
We shouldn't close the doors, but neither should we leave them wide open
Sacha, Bath, UK
And what about the UKs Co2 ??
JAMES, Aberdeen, UK
Stop moaning. If we really get so many people coming here in the next 4 decades it won't be because of the weather, it will be because it's a successful country and a good place to live. If not, they won't come. Anyway much of the projected migration is from EU countries and we can't stop them
Clifford, Reading,
The fact is, most people don't want this, so why is it being forced on us by short-sighted politicians. If there are short-term benefits, which I'm doubtful of, the longer-term problems being created far outweigh them.
John, London, England
Total madness, we are no longer allowed to criticise any ethnic minority or comment in anyway the immigration policy without being called racist. I for one am not happy with this influx of people flooding our country. I feel it is changing our culture and character for the worse
Martin, Reading, Berkshire
Wonderful for the British opportunity to have a black queen or king!
kali, nairobi,
This government say population growth is good. UN says we are facing a future food shortage, ergo big population = bad. My main question is why are we letting in immigrants when we have unemployment? First get the unemployed into work. If there are still available jobs, then allow immigration
Graeme, Edinburgh,
There will be a lot of very short tempers if this ever comes to pass. Britain is already more than full.
judy, Liverpool, England
I'd be interested to know in what year we expect gridlock as the UK highways seem close to capacity already. In fifty years time we'll be parking our cars in skyscrapers as there'll be little room to park on the ground.
The future's looking grim.
colin, kelowna BC, Canada
John Salt from Migration Watch is guilty of the same Orwellian fudge as the government. If he MEANS immigration, he should SAY immigration. Migration can mean inward or outward movement, and he means INWARD. Such laxity simply muddies the already murky waters.
Bill Harding, York,
People born here SHOULD NOT have the right to bring their relatives from other countries, unless those are EU countries (they would then have the right to come anyway) !
Only this way can the hidden migration into the UK be stopped.
Non-EU immigrants evidently do not integrate well in the UK.
Edward Smith, London, UK
But what are the confidence levels in these estimates? A lot can happen in 50 years. It makes no sense to extrapolate short-term trends so far into the future.
Andrew Gallagher, Galway,
I'm sure reports like this would have my English ancestors turning in their graves. If we need more people we should be encouraging the resident population to have more children as they do in France. There should be limited immigration with priority given to skilled workers not extended families!
Richard, London,
And how long before the patchwork quilt of no-go areas becomes permanent ? Fast approaching a USA or Northern Ireland or Yugoslavia style of segregated communities. New Labour's solution for community cohesion ? Lets dilute the english parts even more so they wont cause any trouble.
frank, swindon, uk
This is why I am voting Tory at the next election. The are the only ones who say they will put an annual limit on immigration to stop such a population scenario.
Kirsty, Cheshire, UK
Well, a big round of applause for Labour.
Britain would do well with even a /few/ reforms stemming immigration. I hope the politicians realise this before it's too late.
Nick Caine, London, UK
What exactly is the problem to which the solution is more - lots more - people ?
Stephen O'Loughlin, Hudersfeld,
While agreeing with the sentiments of Mark, Leeds I do think that the country to which he refers is the United Kingdom.
Iain, Scotland
Iain Cuthbertson, Greenock, Renfrewshire
This is bad news. I'm a British foreigner. The British side of me will kick myself out of this country. Then I can become an expat, British of course.
jayil, london, uk
To work where?
ronnie, bucks, UK
Well done Mr Brown for turning England into a third world country!
mark, Leeds,
There is a tipping point which we are fast approaching where the workers of today will no longer fund the pensions of the retired, especially public sector workers, they will just simply elect a party that refuses to honour the promises previous governments have made, but didn't fund.
Stephen, St. Ives, England
We dont want no more people...too much pressure on resources..and if we do people born in this country have the right to bring over and invite there relatives (cousins/uncles) first from other countries..
Mohammed Singh , Bradford, UK