Clare Francis
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The effects of higher borrowing costs are beginning to take their toll on lending, according to the latest data on the mortgage market.
Figures released today by the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) reveal that the number of mortgage approvals fell by 14 per cent last month and analysts expect this weakening to continue throughout the year.
Interest rates have gone up by one percentage point since last August but consumers have been more resilient than many economists had expected. The housing market remains buoyant, with prices having risen by 10.9 per cent over the last year, according to Halifax. High street spending has also been strong.
However, over recent weeks evidence has emerged suggesting that higher interest rates are beginning to bite. The BBA figures, which revealed that 170,000 mortgages were approved in April, down from 198,000 in March, follow a survey from the Royal Institute for Chartered Surveyors, which found that new buyer enquiries have fallen for the fifth consecutive month. This will filter through to the housing market over the coming months, with many property analysts predicting that the rate of growth will fall to around 5 per cent by the end of the year. But if interest rates rise again, the impact on the property market could be more severe.
At the beginning of May, the majority of economists had thought this month’s rate increase, which took Bank rate from 5.25 per cent to 5.5 percent, would be the last in the current tightening cycle. However, the Bank of England has since published its quarterly inflation report, within which it hinted that rates may have to rise again to curb inflation.
The consensus view is now that Bank rate will go up to 5.75 per cent before September, with a 50:50 chance of a further quarter point increase before the end of the year. This would take Bank rate to 6 per cent, its highest level for seven years and economists warn that it could trigger a fall in house price in some areas.
Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide building society, said: “In our view, the talk of rates climbing to 6 per cent are overblown and if implemented in the current climate, could be damaging to housing market stability. With the market already showing signs of cooling, too sharp a rate hike could undermine market confidence and dry demand up swiftly. On top of this it could also lead to widespread payment difficulties, which could precipitate price falls.”
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If too sharp a rate hike leads to widespread payment difficulties as Fionnuala Earley says, it will be the fault of lax lenders not the Bank of England. As everyone knows interest rates can go up as well as down and they are still historically low .
David, Watford,
The extremes being quoted (ie boom or bust). Actually although prices have slowed (3 mnthly average 6% -Nationwide) they are still positive. The national statistics disguise regional variations, the midlands and the north having boomed dramatically 3-4 years ago have been stagnant (ie no growth) for 18 months and and now are in into reverse. Whereas London and the South-east are still strong...why? Population movement - we have had a major economic boom in London - unemployment is negligable and the City has sucked in workers from all over the UK and the world, giving wealth and opportunity to a wide audience - imporntatly whether they rent or buy they have to have somewhere to live and that causes the squeeze. The only way this unravels is in a recession, people lose jobs they go home. Exactly that happenned in the early 1990's but no sign yet. It will take more than interest rates to do that. But in trying to tame London, interest rates will bite in the northa and midlands.
gavin, London,
Fionnuala Earley has talked up the market by highlighting over-demand, under-supply, divorces leading to an increase in demand for flats, and occassionally mentions speculative interest. If there is over-demand for housing, why are rents stagnant or falling Fionnuala? House prices have rocketted on a speculative bubble caused by global liquidity - people who are broke can't buy a house regardless of demand or supply levels.
High house prices are due more to lax lending criteria by lenders, fuelled by people speculating on the market. The market is now turning; global liquidity is reducing and interest rates are rising. People will be hurt. The slide in property prices has begun. See www.propertysnake.co.uk to see prices reductions in your area - then start to worry. Price reductions are currently in the range of 2% - 6% but this will increase because now are the good times and how many people are challenged by debts? The bad times are about to arrive.
NickT, Aldershot,
House prices are also ruled by supply and demand and restrictive planning policies (mismanaged by successive governments) have contributed to the mess the housing market is now in.
People have got rich just by sitting on building land and houses and doing nothing.
Lift the restrictive planning policies so a greater number of houses are built - so that they are affordable to a greater number of people.
Will any government do this?....a dramatic house price fall could well detrimentally effectthe economy.
Sooner or later, some government will have to grasp the nettle.........................
Anna, Camberley, UK
People know what they are getting into when they take out a mortgage.
9 years ago I refused endowment mortgages that advisors kept throwing me. I also refused to accept that interest rates would go to as low as 3% and opted for fixed repayments over 10 years at 5%.
I for one borrowed at three times my salary initially based on my then wage not expected future earnings and found it a struggle. I could not afford the current market prices even with an increased salary (which I've worked hard to achieve).
You can currently rent properties cheaper than take out interest only mortgages. If I was a new buyer I'd sit tight for 6-12 months and rent a property. They will certainly be no worse off and will not be stuck with negative equity should the expected crash arrive.
Remember banks are never the losers if the crash does happen. The current market has been driven by greed.
I for one will sit this one out.
Craig Watkins, Bury, England
Can we all remember that there are only three factors that determine house prices, supply, demand and affordability, the same as it has been throughout history.
If so called "key workers", who are earning more in real terms now than ever before, cannot get on to the housing ladder, then who or what is driving up prices?. Is there an economist out there who can explain this?
The prophets of doom who have been forecasting a house price crash for the last five years have proved to be spectacularly wrong.
The market conditions that caused the boom and bust of the late eighties/early nineties do not exist today, a simple analysis of now and then will show this.
G.J. Edwards, Gerrards Cross, Leafy Bucks
The BoE operates in the wider interests of the economy and its primary role is to ensure that inflation does not exceed a certain level.
If interest rates have to rise to 6% so be it.
Why should the BoE endanger the rest of the economy just to keep mortgage lenders, homebuyers and homeowners happy? They do take into consideration mortgage interest rates and the effects on the economy as a whole should house prices decline.
If it is for the greater good of the economy that interest rates rise and that this remains the case even when falling house prices are taken into consideration - then so be it.
We live in a market economy. Markets rise and fall in all sectors. There are good and bad times in all sectors.
In the UK we have had it good for a long time - especially the housing market - so maybe a bad time is due.
Its never pleasent to suffer a bad time - then again would homeowners prefer the BoE to do nothing and let the economy drift into recession?
AG, Petersfield, UK
Time for a very welcome house price correction! IRs should go higher than 6% and stay there for long time!
Michele, Richmond, Surrey
We live in a small town in Devon. Here it's virtually impossible to buy a decent family house for under £500k as demand seems to far outstrip supply. There's very little on the market.
Now, for a small town there seem to be very large number of houses let out.. Renting is less of a problem.
Maybe a blow to the buy-to-let market in the form of increasing interest rates would release some of the housing stock to genuine buy-to-own families like us who want to move up the ladder, but don't want to take the long term capital risk of not owning our own property.
Derek, Sidmouth, Devon
If people borrow beyond their means and they become homeless, it is a fitting punishment, and they should certainly not be compensated for theit own decision through free will! If the housing market does not crash here, I will move to America where it has already crashed a considerable amount, and with a strong pound my savings earning a high rate of interest will soon afford me a house outright without messing aroung the UK and mortgages, I will not be a beast of burden as a young home buyer in this land of bubble prices, when will this ridiculous bubble burst? Why dont more young people emmigrate to the US, or to Europe where house prices are much cheaper... oh yes, they already are, removing the first time buyer element from the UK housing market. BTL folk, I hope your greed swallows you up.
James, Bristol, UK
If Fionnuala Earley of the Nationwide believes that interest rates are set purely for the benefit of the housing market then she is seriously mistaken.
Interest rates are set to control CPI inflation (which has nothing to do with house prices). If inflation shows signs of rising - as it does now - then rates will be increased. If this results in house price falls, then so be it.
Everyone would be wise to remember that the price of houses can go down as well as up.
Ian, Cambridge, UK
I dislike the manipulate language used by Fionnuala. I would hardly call a boom in house prices over many years "housing market stability", it is more of a problem brewing up. Likewise I would hardly call an incremental 0.25% increase "too sharp a rate hike", more like a belated response to the problem brewing, fuelled by lazy borrowing criteria by banks, mass speculation on property prices and also fuelled by the Bank of England misjudging where to set base rates over the past 5 years. There is good reason why 'boom and bust' is a well known tag line.
Jon Adams, Dubai, UAE
according to official data from the British Bankers Association net mortgage lending fell from £5.1bn to £5bn in April. These figures
are not weak enough to stop the Bank of England raising rates again, hopefully in June but in any case no later than August.
Peter Jones, Glasgow, UK
If thats the best the chief economist can do I'd hate to see the Jack and Jill stuff the rest of her team might produce!
The problem is not interest rates its years of lax, ill thought through and unsustainable lending by companies like the Nationwide that caused the housing bubble - its about to burst - its not different this time as she and her colleagues say - debt is real - house prices do go down - the result is negative equity. Nationwide had best get a bigger letterbox for when the keys start being dropped through their door - its not different this time.
The future homeless will no doubt be able to seek compensation for being allowed to borrow 5 times salary - I for one hope they win!
Steve Baker, Otley, North Yorkshire
Fionnuala : 'too sharp a rate hike could undermine market confidence and dry demand up swiftly. On top of this it could also lead to widespread payment difficulties, which could precipitate price falls'
Oh, darling, price falls? How unfortunate! What, with just 2 quarter point increases? You should be thinking about that when you let people borrow up to 7x times income or when you financed 100% rent coverage BTL investment (speculation). It is your fault darling! And the government's of course, for not taxing BTL speculators punitively.
Housing has become a real mess, especially in London, it will now be a hard way out
Nik, London,
Why is Fionnuala Earley always commenting on the future path of interest rates - I thought that the bank had an inflation targetting remit and not a house price targetting remit. Surely, if inflation is above the two year forecast then rates should rise regardless of mortgage approvals.
A similar, we don't target house prices argument was used to maintain artificially low housing market stimulating rates when CPI inflation was low and asset inflation was rampant. Surely it works the other way around, or should the bank of England just have no credibility?
CityAnon, London, UK
If house prices rose 10.8% (say 11%) in the first five months, then in order for house prices to rise only 5%, this year, house prices over the next 6 months woudl have to fall nearly 6% or 1% every month. This suggest the 5% forecast is foolish. House prices will not fall as long as consumer sentiment remains strong. They may remain flat for the remainder of teh year which means house prices for the year will be on average about 10%.
John Fernandez, London, Uk
have you got a number for mortgage check thankyou
david, doncaster, s yorkshire