The target to build three million new homes by 2020 is not high enough to meet the growth in the number of elderly people and young families, a report says.

A paper from the Town and Country Planning Association (TCPA) obtained by The Times claims the latest analysis of 2006 population statistics shows that at least a further 500,000 homes are needed in England within 12 years. The new pressures are partly because men and women are living even longer but also because more women are having their children later and long-term migrants are starting families in this country.

There is likely to be a big demand for extra houses in the North East and the Midlands as migrants move from the South East.

But with the credit crunch slowing construction, the authors admit that their targets will be almost impossible to achieve and that there will be a shortfall of more than 750,000 homes by 2016. The number of new builds this year is expected to fall from about 170,000 per annum to 120,000 and is unlikely to pick up for four years.

Gideon Amos, the TCPA’s chief executive, said that the predicted shortfall would lead to severe overcrowding and soaring house prices once construction started again. “The worrying implication of this report and its picture of a burgeoning older population is the spectre of rising overcrowding, homelessness and social exclusion,” Mr Amos said. “Even when credit conditions improve and mortgages again become available the current undersupply of additional homes, will quickly risk a return to spiralling prices.”

Christine Whitehead, Professor of Housing at the London School of Economics and one of the report’s authors, said that Gordon Brown had based his projections on 2004 population statistics. But the Office for National Statistics now projects the population in England will grow 2.86 million more by 2026 to 58.7 million.

Homes shortfall

58.7m
Projected population in 2026

7.9m
Expected increase in population between 2006 and 2026

26.75m
Number of households by 2026

3m
Gordon Brown's target for new homes by 2020

3.5m
TCPA target for new homes by 2020

Source: Times research

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