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What is the latest house price forecast?
The struggling property market is in increasing danger of being propelled into a slump. Yolande Barnes, the head of residential research at Savills, has given warning that prices may plunge 25 per cent over the next two years unless the credit crunch is resolved quickly. With the shortage of home loans paralysing the market, Barnes predicts that the best we can expect will be falls of 4 per cent this year and 2 per cent next year. The worst case that she envisions is a fall of 10 per cent in 2008 and one of 15 per cent in 2009.
Do other agents agree?
Knight Frank has also unveiled a new, much gloomier, picture of the property market. In October, the agent was predicting price increases of 3 per cent for 2008 - but now Liam Bailey, the head of research, says that a fall of 3 per cent looks likely. And, if the credit crunch persists, he believes the slide could be as severe as 10 per cent.
Are these the gloomiest predictions yet?
Capital Economics, Global Insight and some other commentators have predicted potential falls of 20 per cent or more over the next two years. And this week David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, said that prices could drop 30 per cent if “aggressive action” is not taken to stave off recession. But these downbeat predictions from Savills and Knight Frank represent the the first time that leading agents, who watch residential property more closely than many observers and who have remained relatively upbeat, are joining in the chorus.
Is this a repeat of the 1990s slowdown?
Falling house prices, rising repossessions and the spectre of negative equity may feel like the housing market crash of the 1990s. But Richard Donnell of Hometrack, the property data company, believes current conditions are closer to the short-term slowdown of 2004 and 2005.
What is different?
Yolande Barnes, of Savills, agrees that conditions differ: in the 1990s interest rates doubled quickly, leaving houseowners without enough income to cover mortgages. Most homeowners still have scope to adjust household budgets to cover rising costs, despite rocketing food and fuel prices, which will keep repossessions relatively low as long as the employment outlook does not worsen.
How long will recovery take?
It is hard to say. Barnes sees parallels with the “mortgage famine” of 1974, when lenders suddenly restricted the supply of home loans. Sales dropped and house price falls in real terms followed for several years, as property values were left behind by rampaging inflation. In this case, Ms Barnes thinks that quick action could ensure recovery begins in 2009 or 2010. But the troubles may drag on until 2012, if the credit crunch doesn't loosen its grip.
But the Government is stepping in, isn't it?
The unprecedented £50 billion mortgage bailout - in which lenders will swap home loans for safer government bonds - should shore up the market over the long term. But observers say that it will provide little immediate relief. Lenders continue to withdraw products, limit access and increase their margin on those deals with remaining customers. Just a week ago, Halifax increased the cost of some of its loans by 0.6 per cent.
Is it gloom everywhere?
It seems so. Savills' latest figures blame the credit crunch for the spread of house-price falls across all regions. In the first quarter of this year, prices dropped 2.5 per cent across the UK, with homes in the North West and South West worst hit. The latest Hometrack data, out this week, indicated that prices are declining across 51.4 per cent of postcodes in the country. The latest data from Nationwide records that house prices across the country have fallen 1 per cent in the past 12 months, the first year-on-year fall recorded since March 1996.
Are there any winners?
The only group of home-owners not feeling the pinch are the “super wealthy”, according to Savills. This group - largely overseas buyers - own properties in the best parts of Central London and have no need to borrow money. The lavish homes they favour, priced at more than £5 million, are hard to find and are thus keeping their value best.
And the losers?
The “merely wealthy”, typically homegrown City buyers, are looking on the international wealthy with an envy more intense than usual. For they need to borrow and to stay in work to meet their mortgage costs, leaving them vulnerable. This has contributed to the sharp falls in Notting Hill, Fulham, Chiswick and Richmond recorded by Savills.
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"Firm action is needed to stop the slide becoming a crash" Stop the endless attempts to reinflate the bubble. HPI is bad for most people, *including* current mortgage holders since it makes it harder to move up. Next you'll tell me that the price of bread doubling is a good thing.
CB, UK,
ten things you need to know about house prices
more to come , more to come ,more to come ,more to come
more to come...................(to the downside)
jay pandya, zurich, switzerland
When will people realise that prices only went up in the first place because there was too much credit available?
Now that it's been taken away, things have to go back to normal, which means prices correcting. Only a fool wouldn't spot this coming. "A fool and his money are easily parted".
Jonah Prose, London,
David, London - The self fulfilling profecy already happened. Banks, EAs, BTLs and owners already talked the market UP into an unsustainable boom.
It now needs to be corrected, now that banks have realised lending money to people who couldn't pay it back was actually a bad idea.
tony, Belfast,
Property price increases cannot continuously out-perform salaries, otherwise it will ALWAYS eventually become unafforable. Your 'home' is not an investment!
House prices have too much tendancy to go up, and so need corrected every 18 years or so with a crash. Its nothing new.
tony, Belfast,
I love the fact the estate agents blame the credit crunch, when it's overpriced houses that caused the credit crunch in the first place.
bob, London, UK
It's mass hysteria. Because people are so heavily taxed in this country no one can amass any real wealth by saving or through investment. So the illusory wealth in their house becomes all consuming and all important. The part the so called 'intelligent' media have played in this is reprehensible.
Hilary, Southall,
Just looked at your video. Wow you can't stop yourselves! Give me some good news! Please, PLEASE, tell me my house has gone UP in value. I can't STAND IT IF YOU DON'T!
When are you lot going to get into your thick heads that high house prices are a BAD thing.
Only the banks win.
Hilary, Southall,
This really is a case of a self fulfilling prophecy. Everyone's talking themselves into a crisis! My flat is currently on the market for a price far more than it would have been a year ago. All it is is that prices are just not rising as fast as they have been. Property is always a long term thing..
David, London,
Why should there be intervention? Is our economy so HPI dependant that the government intervenes. Let the market revert back to historic ratios.No one saved our steel or mining industries which were useful. By the way expensive houses are sterling assets which have lost 20% in value unless hedged!
david barker, eastbourne,
A lot of property pundits remain behind the curve. Last year Savills and similar organisations said prices would not fall, then it become that they may fall a little but would soon recover and now they are calling a fall of upto 25%. This will again be proven wrong, I suspect 35-40% is on the cards.
Mike Livingstone, Reigate, UK
Who cares if the market crashes? I for one am very happy that prices are dropping.
The vast majority of people (perhaps the government should read that as VOTERS) have a lot to benefit from a housing price crash.
Do Labour still wonder why they did so badly in the recent local elections??
Kong, MAnchester, UK
Most of the leading market comentators have people who do little but watch the housing market and related indicators. Unlike estate agents their jobs aren't riding on the numbers. The fact that EAs are gloomy means that the dismal outlook is simply beyond spin
Jonathan, London,
Property prices are in decline and unless the credit crunch resolves itself soon price declines of 25%+ are not unfeasible.
I am happy to see more realistic house prices but a sharp decline in the market will have a wide impact on the economy = large unemployment = recession
Ben, York,
Why are journalists/TV producers etc obsessed with property prices falling? Not all your readers/viewers own homes!
I can't remember the same sort of negative coverage given to the propery boom - which leaft even people like myself on just under £50k a year unable to buy anywhere decent.
Andrew Soames, London, UK
Even the language is biased to get the suckers in, and massage the impending rout!
The property market is not 'slowing down', as seems the popular phrase - it's gone into reverse. And what nonsense is 'negative house price growth' - house price falls? Property ladder = property snake!
David, Birmingham,
The usual balanced reporting from the Times property section I see.
Glad you are keeping your advertisers happy.
Pity no-one believes a word you print any more - a short term slowdown like in 2004? Don't make me laugh, (or treat me like an idiot).
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
Joe in Edinburgh is spot on. What good are rising house prices if you wish to trade up? A decade ago an extra bedroom cost about £20K, now it's more than £50K.
As Tom in Ludlow has accurately put it, the media like to describe debt in any other terms than what it really is - pay it off asap!
Paul, Coventry,
Stop trying to fiddle in stopping the correction. HPI to wages has been insanely out of whack, funded by easy credit.
You got all your pretend wealth in property - welcome to illiquidity.
Well said Nick. I'm totally priced out of Wilmslow.
DS, Manchester, UK
Excessive house prices mean that generation X's legacy to generation Y is a mountain of mortage debt. This coupled with lower rates of return on investments, higher taxes plus small annuity rates means the younger generation can look forward to working longer before retiring with next to nothing.
Nick, Wilmslow, Cheshire
These property vested interests are absolutely insane. They havebeen living it large for too long and are now in denial.
The property market will be "resolved" when it crashes. End of!
John, Manchester, UK
What's all this home owner stuff, most of these are in fact debtors.
Please, please can some one tell me why property price inflation is good, food, energy and other inflation bad.
Other than in the fact that inflation destroys debt of the few and the wealth of the many.
Tom Taylor-Duxbury, Ludlow, UK
House price rises are an enigma, for those of us who buy our homes a rise of 10% a year does nothing for our overall wealth as to buy another home will cost more also. When we eventually retire and move to a smaller home we could of course make a profit. The real winners are property investors.
Joe, Edinburgh, Scotland