Lucy Denyer
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Two hours after opening time on Friday, the door of Chesterton estate agency in Putney, southwest London, swung open and, as the four members of staff looked up, a customer walked in. He was the first — and the last — visitor to cross the threshold that morning, apart from the postman.
If anyone had expected the decision by the Bank of England to slash interest rates by an unprecedented 1.5% the previous day would bring buyers flooding back to the property market, they would have been disappointed. "It's always quieter at this time of year, anyway," insisted Chris Firth, associate director of the Chesterton office, apparently undaunted that the rate cut — greeted with "jubilation" by staff — had yet to have an impact.
There are 17 estate agencies on this stretch of Upper Richmond Road, near the junction with Putney High Street — one of the highest densities anywhere in Britain — but, despite the bright sunshine, the passing trade remained just that: passing.
"We haven't got them queuing up at the door yet," said Alan Fuller, founder of the eponymous estate agency next door, who has been in the business for 40 years and describes the slump of the early 1990s as "a breeze" compared to current market conditions. "Until the interest-rate cut filters through into the real economy and has an effect on mortgage rates, I don't think it's going to make much of a material difference to the property market."
Emma Cole, a negotiator at Douglas & Gordon, opposite, agreed. "It will take some time to have an effect; the next week will be quite telling," she said, adding that the past few months have been "tough and depressing". Announcement or no, it is already too late for some agencies — one nearby has already been forced by the lack of business to close its doors. The window of Savills, a few doors along, reflected the mood: tucked away among the adverts for properties were reproductions of second world war posters, urging everyone to "Keep Calm and Carry On". The only person who seemed to be really cheerful was Nick Stormont, 30, the Chesterton client. A buyer for Charterhouse, a property-investment firm, he happily describes himself as a "vulture".
"The lenders still aren't lending, so it's only going to get worse," he said. "But it's great for us. Cash is king at the moment — and we have cash." Stormont, who has access to £300m of funds and claims to pay only about 20p in the pound for some properties he picks up, is excited about the potential bargains out there and disappeared to check some of them out. Stormont aside, however, it's not entirely surprising that the interest-rate cut has had little immediate effect on the market, despite signs at the end of last week that banks and building societies were finally beginning to crumble under pressure from the government and agree to pass on the full 1.5% cut.
In Cheltenham & Gloucester's Putney branch, the manager admitted they hadn't had a huge increase in calls — most people had been phoning just to check how much they would save on their current mortgage. Until people know that the saving will filter down, he said, nothing much will happen.
Liam Bailey, head of Knight Frank's research department, agrees. "Normally, you would expect a cut of that magnitude to have a significant impact in terms of demand — and, in 12 months' time, to feed through to price growth," he says. "At the moment, it's unlikely to be as quick or significant, primarily because the banks are still trying to recapitalise and reduce their exposure to lending, rather than increase it — look at how they haven't been fighting to deliver the best deals in the last few days." Much, says Bailey, will depend on Libor, the rate at which banks lend to each other. Although it, too, has been moving down, it remains well above the Bank rate.
Historically, at least, there is no disputing the link between base rates and house prices — as evidenced between 2001 and 2005, when the Bank kept rates very low, helping trigger a huge rise in prices. Add in the distinct possibility of another rate cut over the next few months, and the recovery of the housing market should start a little earlier than predicted — in the second half of next year, according to Bailey. "Over the next few months it's going to become quite a positive story," he says. Crucial, too, is the broader economy, and quite how bad the looming recession turns out to be. Capital Economics, one of the gloomier commentators, greeted Halifax's announcement of a 15% year-on-year fall in prices with predictions of further sharp falls to come. "The housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse," it says.
Back in Putney, the afternoon saw the start of a small flurry of activity. There were a couple of customers in Foxtons, and Chris Firth at Chesterton has just had a new inquiry from a buyer looking for a property around the £850,000 mark — he had been looking before, but desultorily, and is now back with a vengeance. "People are coming out of the woodwork a little bit," he said enthusiastically. Hope may be stirring — but as ever, when it comes to the property market, there is a downside. "We think our vendors are going to become a bit more bullish about what price they might expect," says Emma Cole at Douglas & Gordon. "It's taken a long time to persuade them to drop the price, but depending on what mortgage they're on, they might be able to afford to hold out now." Recovery, it seems, could be some time coming.
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The last commentator has got it in one. Sellers will be even less reluctant to drop their prices because of rate cuts,
Buyers will still not be willing to pay ludicrous prices in the face of a recession.
End game?
Stalemate.
No change then.
I expect Putney will have a lot fewer EAs next year.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
if no mortgages are not given, houses will not sell, no matter what the price is.
sa, leeds,