Median price at August 2008: £152,168

General increase since Sept 2007: 6%

Projected increase to Sept 2009: 0%-2%

Five-year increase: 82% (£83,464)

Ten-year increase: 151% (£60,613)

The complete Dumfriesshire, Kirkcudbrightshire and Wigtownshire price guide

Last year, we asked whether Stranraer could be the next town to do a Kilmarnock and be co-opted into Scotland’s west coast commuter belt. After the past year that window is all but gone for now and Dumfriesshire has returned to the less frenetic local market profile that was the norm prior to the boom of the past three years.

Alastair Hainey of surveyor DM Hall says that the Northern Rock debacle has framed everything that has happened nationally and locally this year. “There has been no downturn in prices but we’ve seen a marked downturn in volumes — so much so that an unreliable number of completions makes it tough to get a picture of the market and even more difficult for surveyors trying to provide accurate valuations.”

First-time buyers have been greatly affected by the lending squeeze in what is a generally low-paid local economy where almost all rely on mortgage finance. “A local first-time buyer will typically need to find £10,000 and expenses to get on the ladder now there are no 100% mortgages available. In the mid-market, houses are basically making asking price and not much more.”

However, the picture for top-end rural and large town properties seems far rosier, with returns in line with last year’s predictions. Hainey says: “I’ve valued six houses in the £400,000- £750,000 bracket recently and all sold well in the past month.”

With no first-time buyers and no first-time sellers to speak of, the mid-market has stagnated. On the plus side, Dumfriesshire remains a fairly sheltered micro market more or less immune to wild fluctuations through both good and bad times. “I am not as downbeat as some of my colleagues,” says Hainey. “We are doing okay and being in a micro market is no bad thing in a slump.” He believes that mid-range homes in the £100,000-£300,000 bracket are the best buys available because sellers will listen to offers. There are few investors around in this remote part of the country but, again, that could mean opportunities for the intrepid few.

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