Median price at August 2008: £142,997

General increase since Sept 2007: 2%

Projected increase to Sept 2009: 0%-2%

Five-year increase: 80% (£79,442)

Ten-year increase: 151% (£50,380)

The complete Renfrewshire price guide

Generally speaking, Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire are similar markets.

Both are mainstream locations funded by mortgages rather than private wealth, both are driven by locals trading up and both are popular with Glasgow commuters.

This year, though, there is a marked divergence in mood. As the Lanarkshire lot blame everyone from the government, lenders and first-time buyer affordability for the stagnation of their market, Renfrewshire is buzzing (at least in relative terms).

Lorraine Hamilton of Century 21 in Paisley is particularly upbeat. “There is currently no predication for a fall in house prices in Scotland,” she says, “despite current market conditions. Sales volumes are down, however prices remain stable and in some areas have risen slightly. For 2009, estimates are very cautious at a 3% rise in average house price.”

Douglas Nicol of Rettie and Co also takes issue with our 0% growth forecast for Renfrewshire in 2009 saying: "While some areas and properties will hold their values, the overall trend has been a return to 2007 values rather than prices holding up as the figures below suggest. Supply and location are still important and there will be exceptions to any rule with the right properties still selling for prices which reflect an increase on last year.”

HBOS estimates that prices in Paisley, Greenock and Renfrew are up 6%, 8% and 10% respectively this year, although Johnstone, a town once top for growth on the back of historically low values, has bottomed out with growth of 1% this year according to the lender.

Greenock’s rise in prices, if taken at face value, will be greeted with some clamour in Inverclyde. J&E Shepherd’s Steven McLean said last year that a consistently improving market over the past few years was exhibiting signs of slowing slightly on the back of interest rate rises.

Rather like Stranraer, which faces similar post-industrial problems, Inverclyde's regeneration will not be considered fully effective until towns such as Greenock are seen as part of Greater Glasgow first and Renfrewshire second. McLean said that, along with the waterside redevelopment and upgrading programmes, Inverclyde council has a massive marketing job on its hands. Any lull in the local market or adverse economic conditions could put the kibosh on Inverclyde’s ambitious plans and see the area once again become a local market for local people.

Renfrewshire is now at a crossroads. There is no sense that the family-orientated hot spots such as Houston and Bridge of Weir have much to fear, even if sales volumes have slowed. However, the fate of key first-time buyer towns such as Paisley, Johnstone, Elderslie and Foxbar will be inextricably bound up with lending and interest rates in the coming months. How they fare will depend on the quality of the solutions proferred for getting more new buyers onto the property ladder, which will kick-start deals further up the chain.

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