Median price at August 2008: £170,324

General increase since Sept 2007: 4%

Projected increase to Sept 2009: 0%

Five-year increase: 74% (£97,826)

Ten-year increase: 169% (£63,235)

The complete Glasgow West price guide

The GSPC’s Mark Hordern courted the opprobrium of industry peers last year when he made a blanket forecast of nil growth across the west of Scotland. But he is taking no pleasure from his accuracy. “I got the right answer,” he says, “but the manner in which it transpired couldn’t have been predicted by anyone.”

The credit crunch caught everyone unawares. A low number of transactions, believed to be 50% down on last year, and loss-averse selling tactics have framed activity in all Glasgow’s markets this year. “If sellers aren’t getting their desired price, they won’t sell and there is a log jam in our markets as a result,” says Hordern. “Prices are holding but it is hard to know if this year’s returns are a reflection of buyers forced to sell through specific circumstances or the usual mix of forced sales and sellers looking to trade up.”

There has been a lot of fluctuation in the west end over the past year, and the market is split between familiarly high returns and quick sales in the best streets of Dowanhill, Hyndland, Jordanhill and Hillhead, and underwhelming returns — including 5% price falls — in the district’s peripheral locations.

Reflecting this two-tier market perhaps, prime property specialist Corum is again taking issue with Hordern’s predictions, forecasting instead steady single-figure capital growth this year and slightly reduced growth beyond. If you live in a solid, west end property, you could add 5% to the current and future values contained in the GSPC returns.

Hordern is not unreceptive to Corum’s claims, saying that continued high employment, an interest-rate fall and relaxed lending criteria could all foster mini-boom conditions. A return to more dynamic lending is the key to the market moving on, he says.

Corum’s John Davidson confirms that the firm has been offered competitive mortgage packages for clients by three leading banks. “There is money out there for mortgages,” he says, “but the message isn’t getting through to consumers, who are suffering a crisis of confidence as a result of media reports.”

The challenge for would-be west end buyers is to take a view on current prices and decide whether to gamble on the market having bottomed out. Hordern believes the window of opportunity for buyers could be closed just as quickly as it opened. “The Bank of England forecast that inflation could fall from 5% back to 2.5% over the next 12 months,” he says. “That, with improved lending conditions and the relaxation of interest rates, could see prices recover and the market pick up again.”

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