Median price at August 2008: £198,336

General increase since Sept 2007: 6%

Projected increase to Sept 2009: 6%

Five-year increase: 95% (£101,830)

Ten-year increase: 156% (£77,626)

The complete Aberdeen price guide

In boom times, Scotland’s housing markets outwith the central belt can seem like poor relations as they bump along, fuelled by a local demand index-linked to local wages. In a downturn, though, the converse is true and our remote microclimates tend to escape the worst excesses of any fall in values, as a result of reined-in expectations as much as anything else. But Aberdeen has always been a microclimate — and then some.

Indeed, the northeast’s fortunes are inextricably linked to the rest of us suffering high fuel and food bills. The high price of oil, grain and agricultural land has seen Aberdeen and its environs all but sidestep the credit crunch.

In August, one London newspaper christened Aberdeen “Britain’s new capital of bling”, suggesting that the city was awash with disposable cash and enjoyed a burgeoning property market on the back of a 35% rise in consumers’ gas bills. The same article claimed that in “the Bentley capital of the UK”, the unemployment rate is well below the Scottish average at just 0.8%; gross weekly earnings are, on average, £606 — a fifth higher than the rest of the UK. Recruitment centres, the article said, have more jobs than applicants and the AB15 postcode boasts more millionaires per capita than any other UK postal district outside London.

Re/Max’s Ryan Forbes is happy to go along with the positive spin. “We are definitely bucking the trend,” he says. “The oil market here is quite a significant part of this, but we are well placed with two universities as well, so people are still piling in to the buy-to-let sector.”

Some estimates suggest house prices soared by as much as 36% in the Granite City last year, but like Tony Dawson of James & George Collie, we are taking a more sober view. “There is no doubt Aberdeen always runs to its own rhythm as a result of its oil industry,” he concedes. “It is also true that there are obvious signs of confidence in the redevelopment of the city centre, in the shops, bars and restaurants. But having read some of the hype, I only wish it were true.

“There is no doubt, though, that our market is still moving forward — indeed, the only thing slowing the market is the availability of mortgage finance.”

Two years ago we reported a 24% increase in house prices in the city and a seeming change in local tastes with a rise in demand for the city’s traditional granite flats, a sector that had underperformed for the previous 10-15 years. In 2008 most housing categories have seen rises slacken to something roughly akin to local wage inflation.

HBOS claims that Aberdeen has seen price increases of 95% in the past five years and 156% in the past decade, so the city’s boom is certainly not a flash in the pan. And there is more good news, according to Dawson: “I’d certainly be happy with a similarly positive slant on next year’s forecast but there is now a bit of realism in the market that gives both buyers and sellers a chance.

“Any improvement in the availability of mortgages would see an upsurge in the number of transactions but even with the status quo, I’d be hopeful of good single figure growth.”

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