David Smith
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Has Vince Cable, whose grim demeanour is perfect for out times, come up with an answer to housebuilders' woes? He has suggested that registered landlords, mainly housing associations, should be allowed to buy up properties builders cannot sell to provide homes for those on waiting lists.
The government has set aside £200m for this. Cable says anumber 100 times that, £20 billion, would be more appropriate. Unlike the mortgage lenders, the state still finds it easy to borrow in the markets. There is spare money - though nothing like £20 billion - in the housing budget. It looks like a neat way to kill two birds with one stone.
One problem may be the mismatch between the surplus properties on the builders' books and social-housing needs. Executive homes and city-centre flats designed for chic urban living were never meant for growing families. And the prices the social-housing sector might be prepared to pay to take surplus property off the builders' hands might, in any case, be well below the minimum acceptable, even for a cash-strapped developer. At the margin, however, the scheme might help.
Another issue is highlighted by the Liberal Democrat shadow chancellor's suggestion. What is the right level for owner-occupation in Britain? It rose from 67% to 70% when Tony Blair was in office, and the government had an "aspiration" to 80% home-ownership. That has been quietly forgotten, amid evidence that it is back below 70%. It will slip further as the squeeze on first-time buyers persists.
So, there is a place for an increased role for social housing, and a role for the private landlord, too. The evidence on whether private-sector rents are rising in response to tenant demand or being squeezed by an incrase in the supply of rented properties is mixed, but it looks likely that demand for rented accommodation will be stronger than for house purchase for a while yet.
Talking of conflicting evidence, the government's own measure of house prices is holding up surprisingly well. The Department of Communities and Local Government says house prices, not seasonally adjusted, slipped by 0.3% to an average of £218,151 in May and were up by 3.7% on a year earlier, down from 4.9% in April. London house-price inflation edge up, from 7.5% to 7.8%~. Many will say this sruvey is unrealistically upbeat. The truth probably lies between this and the gloomier measures.
home.economics@sunday-times.co.uk
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