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From The Sunday Times

April 13, 2008

How to avoid the worst of the property market slowdown

The forecast is getting gloomier, but there are ways for canny buyers and sellers to avoid the worst of it

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Helen Davies

The news from the property market is getting worse. The latest data last week from the Halifax revealed prices fell by 2.5% in March – the largest monthly decline since September 1992 – while the International Monetary Fund believes the market could be down by as much as 10% in the coming year, as the credit squeeze turns to a credit crunch and soon, perhaps, a full-blown credit crisis. So who is going to be hardest hit, and what can you do about it?

The first-time buyer

On the face of it, a fall in house prices should be good news. You would be happy if the price of a car or a pint went down, so why are bricks and mortar any different? A couple of reasons: first, prices are so high relative to earnings that it would take huge falls to restore the ratio to the level of even five years ago. Second, there is the problem of finding a bank or building society to fund your purchase – a real challenge for first-time buyers, many of whom have little or no deposit. Last week Abbey became the last mainstream lender to stop offering 100% loans.

“First-time buyers are getting a double whammy,” says Richard Donnell, a director at housing analyst Hometrack. “They can’t afford to buy and rents are rising too – last year, they were equivalent to 70% of the cost of buying, now it’s 80%. Let’s hope landlords don’t sell up and leave the market in droves, as it will send rents even higher.”

Strategy: keep saving your money for that all-important deposit, get your name on affordable-housing waiting lists, or find someone else to buy with.

The couple trading up from a two-bedroom flat to a three-bed terrace in the suburbs

A fall in prices is potentially good news for anyone who wants to trade up, since it means the extra money you have to pay gets smaller. Prices of different properties fall at different rates, of course, but, for example, if you are selling a £350,000 flat and prices have fallen 10%, you will receive £35,000 less. This will be more than offset, however, by the £50,000 you get off the £500,000 house you want to buy.

“Take a hit on the sale of your flat in the knowledge you will be asking for a hit in your favour when negotiating for the house,” says Phil Spencer, presenter of Channel 4’s Location, Location, Location and director of Garrington Home Finders. “You can be greedy or cheeky, but not both.”

Strategy: research your local market, work out how big a hit you are prepared to take and be as flexible as you can to get the best deal on the next rung up. When the market bounces back, so too will the price of your next home.

The couple with small children living in London (or any other city) wanting to sell up and move to the country

You bought your house more than five years ago, have built up substantial equity, and family houses have always sold well, haven’t they? Property in London is holding up better than in the provinces, so, in theory, you should be able to sell for a fair price and haggle over a discount in the country. Yet, as The Sunday Times reported last month, there is a shortage of prime country properties on the market, which means you could be outbid for the house you want and waste a lot of time traipsing around the remaining less-than-perfect, overpriced properties.

Strategy: make sure you research the market in the place where you want to move. If it’s going to be difficult to find what you are looking for, try to negotiate a delayed completion date with the people buying your property. Otherwise, be ready to rent while you hunt for your new home.

The buy-to-let investor

If you have built up a portfolio of terraced housesor other period stock over several years, you are probably sitting on substantial equity. Plus, rents are rising. However, if you are among those who were persuaded to buy new-build flats, you could be in trouble. The capital gains you counted on have not materialised, and the rent probably doesn’t cover the mortgage – if you can rent out your flat at all.

“Anyone who went along to a hotel on a Saturday afternoon and put down a deposit on an off-plan flat in a northern city is in trouble,” says Steve Hilton, a spokesman for the National Landlords Association. “But the career landlord, who keeps his properties an average 15 years, will just sit tight and even begin to invest more as rents rise and prices slip.”

Strategy: increase your rent, if you can, and get your finances in place so you can take advantage of repossessions – even if it may be too early to buy just yet. Be wary of any northern city-centre flats, however much they are reduced.

The elderly couple wanting to downsize

After seeing the value of your main asset rise over the past decade, you are watching, powerless, as it drifts back down, cutting away at your pension. It’s bad for you and bad for the kids, whom you were going to help buy their first home.

Strategy: you could sit it out and wait until the market picks up. Or sell now, downsize to a smaller, cheaper-to-run house and help the children get on the ladder while it’s still a buyers’ market. “There are still plenty of buyers out there,” says Simon Backhouse, head of the Canterbury office of Strutt & Parker. “Good family houses are always popular and many are still fetching a premium.”

Lizzie, Bournemouth, Dorset
Fall back in love?

Perhaps rents arent rising in your local area, they are in mine, its still slightly cheaper to buy a house than rent one.

I'm not sure why rents shouldnt rise in line with petrol and food, I've certainly never seen rents that were a percentage of your disposable income.

People are being evicted, people are selling up and renting, that puts pressure on rents.
The article makes quite a concious effort to differentiate flats and houses, the first time I've seen a main stream paper do so.
If you want, or dont mind, living in a 2 bed newly built flat, you can pay whatever rent you want really, if you want a 4 bed semi detached, there arent many, and prices are high

Dominic, Manchester, UK

One essential category overlooked: the divorcing couple who have to sell up, but need to realise maximum equity for separate places next (I know, appalling timing). Strategy advice please...

Lizzie, Bournemouth, Dorset

I downsized 2 years ago and rented for a while before buying a property. Looking at the rents in my area at the present time there has been at least a 15% reduction and there are far more properties available.
Renting is no longer money down the drain but buying at present might well be!

john, milton keynes,

John Hicks, petrol and food prices are higher than a year ago. Is that good news too?

JM, Tynemouth, UK

Don't the media love bad news! House prices are falling at the fastest rate for years! Look at the figures, prices are still higher to day than this time last year, and that must be good news but do we ever hear it? The media are trying to talk down prices so that they can have even more bad news to report.

John Hicks, Penzance, Cornwall

I suppose if you say something often enough it becomes true. All the vested interests are saying over and over again 'rents are rising'. I've been renting a big 4 bed detached for 5 years and am still paying the same rent. A similar property up the road from me is available for rent now - the fourth time since I have lived here - and it is now up for Â£50 a month less than it was last time.

How rents can be rising against a backdrop of massive cost of living increases like energy, petrol and food is a mystery to me. But, to all those whose livelihoods depend on an ever-inflating property market, apparently the rental market can defy the economic background and rents are, apparently, going up.

They are, not to put too fine a point on it, LYING.

Hilary, Southall,