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For anyone looking to buy or sell at the moment, the main question is - just what is happening in the market? In England and Wales, the government admits a house price slump is on the way, and earlier this month Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, said prices could fall by up to 20% in two years. Other reports have been either contradictory or baffling. So is Scotland's property market still buoyant or has the much trumpeted slowdown begun?
Evidence suggests that for some homeowners looking to move, things are anything but dormant.
Stephanie Smith and Edward Stewart, who are both artists, want to move from their stylish two-bedroom tenement apartment in Glasgow's east end to an equivalent in the west of the city. Last week, they bid for a converted townhouse flat in upmarket Dowanhill, and are keeping their fingers crossed.
Anywhere else, a repossessed flat would be a millstone around selling agents' necks, but in Dowanhill it is expected to fetch more than £250,000 - and could be worth £300,000 once it has been overhauled.
Glasgow is experiencing price growth of a modest 4% overall. However, the city is more a series of self-sustaining micro-markets. For Glaswegians, market confidence is a reflection of localised demand.
Mark Hordern of the Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre, says: “The market has been busier in the first three months of this year than many of us expected or feared. There are more properties coming on to the market than at the same time last year, and the level of inquiries from buyers remains high. Almost all our members have reported intense activity.”
In Edinburgh, seller confidence appears high, even though prices are rising more slowly. According to David Marshall of the Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre, over the past six months the market has cooled, with annual inflation in the first two months of this year standing at just 3% in the capital, against 10% to 15% in 2006 and last year. Nonetheless, both selling times and premiums achieved on “offers-over” properties are in line with past levels. The proportion of properties selling at fixed price has also increased by about 5%.
Marshall says: “Demand in the city continues to be highest for smaller properties, as first-time buyers look for a way on to the property ladder. It is projected that growth of about 3% will continue in the next 12 months.
“Further afield, the ESPC anticipates higher growth in affordable areas in east-central Scotland, such as Dunfermline and Kirkcaldy, where annual inflation continued to exceed 15% towards the end of last year.”
The gains in commuter towns are in line with HBOS's latest findings. As Aberdeen and Dundee continue to boom, so have their satellites, with Montrose as the best performing town in Scotland last year. Average house prices rose by 39% to £172,156. Peterhead followed closely, with a 33% rise, to £156,875.
According to Martin Ellis, HBOS's chief economist, Inverurie is the most expensive place to buy a house in Scotland. It experienced a 29% house price increase last year, rising to an average of £231,623. Cumnock is the most affordable town, at £111,269.
It is a patchwork of winners and losers. Aberdeenshire has seen price growth of 21% since last year - three times the annual growth in North Lanarkshire. Stirlingshire, East Renfrewshire and Dumfries and Galloway, have all enjoyed 20% gains in the past year, while East Ayrshire has grown by 6%. Greenock has boomed by 29%, yet comparable Airdrie grew by a mere 3%.
So is there any overall Scottish house price picture? Yes, says Ellis. “The Scottish housing market performs the best in the UK. Scottish house-price inflation is 13.1%, well above the UK figure of 5.2%. Scottish houses are still the most affordable in the UK. At £144,897, the average price in Scotland is 26% less than the UK average of £197,071.”
The bank predicts lower price growth - of only 4% - this year. This would be the lowest rise in eight years.
Ellis says: “Many Scottish borrowers who took fixed rate mortgages in 2005 and 2006 at low rates will move on to higher rates as their term expires. Higher food and energy prices will take up more of homeowners' income, and these are likely to slow house price growth in Scotland.”
At the very top of the market, Savills report that things continue apace. There were 283 £1m-plus sales in Scotland last year - an increase of almost 75% on 2006, and 52% of sales at £1m and above in 2007 were in Edinburgh.
Hordern believes that, for the rest of us, the uncertain availability of mortgage finance is the one blot on the landscape. He says: “The credit crunch has had a limited impact so
far. But if creditworthy buyers can't
get a mortgage, that will impact on
the market.”
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