The year in figures

The housing market in Wales remained strong for the first half of 2007 before settling into a quiet period from June. The Welsh market as a whole mimicked the rest of the UK, while smaller areas fell outside the market's main trajectory.

The Halifax says that Greater London prices are 1.9 times higher than those in Wales, compared with 2.7 times in 2002. The average house price in Wales is £165,472, 17 per cent below the UK average of £198,898.

House prices rose by 9.5 per cent in the year to September, according to the Halifax. However, when the price falls of a very poor fourth quarter are taken into account, this figure drops to an estimate of only 1 per cent growth, year on year, to January 2008.

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• A guide to the housing market forecasts

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• All set for slowdown

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The London property market

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• Is the property boom finally over?

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• How the mortgage market has changed

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• Property prices grow at slowest rate in five months

• Buying a house 'will cost 10 times your income'

• How the mortgage market has changed

• First proof of decline in housing market

• Buy-to-let brigade could be the joker in pack

No one is suffering as much as first-time buyers

Lenders are getting more picky, yet property prices are refusing to fall far enough, fast enough

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• First proof of decline in housing market

• Fresh signs of cooling housing market

• House prices slow despite London surge

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• Mortgage slowdown triggers house price fears

• Buy-to-let tax shock

• Fall in mortgages raises fears of slowdown

• Signs emerge that UK housing is off the boil

• Interest rates put brake on house prices

End of house price boom is in sight

Societies saw an 8% drop in mortgage approvals last month compared with a year ago, the first such fall since 2005

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• Nationwide says slowdown may limit price rise

• House prices keep on rising

• Your guide to surviving the rate hike

• The return of negative equity?

Housing costs taking their toll

The question that always accompanies fresh data showing a fast-growing housing market is: are we headed for a crash?

BACKGROUND

• The Welsh wobble

• Downsize to west Wales

• Focus on... Aberystwyth

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• Anglesey angle

• Valleys and cliffs beckon the brave

• Holiday lets: railway carriages

• Focus on . . . Cardiff

• Wales’s hottest spot

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says that house prices in October fell at their fastest rate since September 2005. The number of buyer inquiries has dropped steadily since August and the number of properties coming to the market has also fallen during the latter part of the year.

The expert view: what's hot.....

Peter Reilly, Savills, Cardiff: “Rural property in South Wales has seen a burst of interest from lifestyle buyers — looking for second homes and country retreats — so the rural market has been performing quite well. The South Wales marketplace has expanded this year to bring in greater numbers of buyers from outside Wales.”

Lauren Watson, Knight Frank, Cardiff: “It has become more of a buyer's market. Purchasers are now aware of the incentives on offer and are negotiating harder to get good deals. Asking prices have been slightly higher, but have then been negotiated down to a level similar to that of this time last year.”

David Jones, Jones and Redfearn, Rhyl: “Welsh house prices have levelled out, but not decreased. Vendors have been rather more keen to agree a deal, so prices have been tempered by this.”

... and what's not

Lauren Watson, Knight Frank: “Developers have been delaying new building launches until early next year. Many sellers are waiting to see what happens with interest rates.”

David Jones, Jones and Redfearn: “The upper end has been a little quiet more recently, particularly in North Wales, where fewer wealthy buyers are coming across from the major conurbations in the North West.”

Forecast for 2008

RICS says that, if the recent trend in house prices continues, growth could reach its lowest level since 2000.

Halifax predicts a house-price growth rate of 0 per cent for 2008.

What will be the new trends?

Peter Reilly, Savills: “The very high volume of sales in the first half of 2007 contributed to the reduction of transactions in the second half of the year, culminating in a correction in prices and the number of sales in the final quarter which will carry on into 2008.”

Lauren Watson, Knight Frank: “New-build projects and individual sales that have been held back will probably launch around April or May, bringing a new wave of confidence to the market at that time.”

David Jones, Jones and Redfearn: “Next year there will be more properties coming onto the market, hopefully not because of repossessions but because people who can't get a decent fixed-rate mortgage will have to sell, so there will be greater supply. There will also be a bit of an increase in demand again, but it won't go mad as it did in 2006.”

Health Check
Cymric House, an Edwardian conversion in Cardiff Bay, featured in Focus On Cardiff in April. Twenty-nine of the 50 flats sold before the start of the year, and 17 more have sold since. Three penthouses and a single one-bed flat remain for sale (Knight Frank 02920 440142).

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