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IN 1989, the year that Savills published a checklist ranking London suburbs, a
typographical error meant that Chelsea was left off. A flurry of phone calls
and letters ensued, from residents appalled that SW3 could be overshadowed
by mere Hampstead and Regent’s Park.
Almost 20 years later, researchers at Britain’s biggest estate agent have
again entered the fray. A new list released in The Timestoday ranks
the finest London suburbs – and reveals those locations where residents may
claim, without blushing, to own a prime piece of real estate.
After a 14-year boom, today’s list is considerably longer. A lust for
buy-to-let investment and an influx of new British and international
residents have forced househunters to look farther afield, but cachet has
been kind enough to follow them. Yolande Barnes, Savills’ director of
research, says: “London has got wealthier, and the prime market has expanded
to meet demand.”
The most prominent beneficiary is Notting Hill. Ms Barnes says: “When Notting
Hill was developed, the property was built for the gentry. By the 1950s it
was one of the most deprived parts of London, though the houses were as good
as those in neighbouring Kensington.” It has now, along with Holland Park
and Marylebone, joined Mayfair, Belgravia and Kensington in the super-prime
league.
In Islington, North London, the almost half of its residents who live in
social housing may be surprised to learn of the borough’s designation as
prime; but many will have noted the proliferation of boutiques and cafés
displacing the dusty antique stores and “caffs”. Dulwich, Canary Wharf,
Battersea Park, Primrose Hill and Blackheath have also emerged as the new
London prime. Savills monitored the frequency of high-value transactions –
those above £1 million – to construct its rankings, believing that market
value reflects desirability.
Ms Barnes says that the potential of a rundown area to become a status address
depends on the quality and arrangement of the properties. “The Notting Hill
example shows the all-importance of stock. Buyers look for houses that look
like those in nicer areas. Notting Hill had that in spades, with its garden
squares and stucco-fronted homes. If you look at the prime areas, they are
all urban villages. The important thing is that they have the potential to
have their own distinct character and identity.”
The current boom has rid the capital of the category of no-longer-prime areas;
in 1989 this included Bayswater, Maida Vale and Soho. Ms Barnes says: “We
are now more tolerant of 1930s’ purpose-built apartments – a large part of
Bayswater’s housing stock – while the trend for city living has played to
the strengths of Covent Garden, Soho and Bloomsbury. Westminster is still in
the second league because it lacks a sense of identity and is dominated by
other sorts of buildings.”
Yet, just as Londoners have the satisfaction – or not – of finding their
suburb on the best-address list, the definition has lost some of its gold
plating. Prime property has been resistant to the slowdown this year, but
worries in the City and political attention directed at nondomicile
residents’ tax advantages are now biting. Ms Barnes says that buyers must
beware the “high tidemark”. She says: “High-price areas do move. At the end
of a boom those recent risers, on the edge, are more likely to suffer.”
Even core prime areas “can be more volatile than the rest of the country. But
over the longer term they tend to show greater growth. Know your area: some
are at risk of investors deserting the area, some are at risk of lower City
bonuses and some at risk of the repatriation of funds by high net-worth
individuals.”
In 2008 the real question for homeowners will be, as Ms Barnes says: “What’s
dead-cert prime and what’s vulnerable prime?”
Is your suburb prime or off the radar? State your case at: timesonline.co.uk/property
BESTBETS?
Savills researchers nominate the areas with the potential to become part of
prime London:
Tooting is the new Notting Hill, the researchers say, because of its
vibrant, ethnically diverse feel and sudden rush of incomers. The BBC’s
presence in White City has so far failed to brighten up the area, but
plans for a lavish Westfield shopping centre may do the trick. Nearby East
Acton increasingly attracts buyers from all over the capital. A draw is
the variety of Victorian, Edwardian and 1930s homes. Tucked between
Streatham, Brixton and Dulwich, Tulse Hill is popular with
professionals. The stock of Georgian homes in enviably central Camberwell
have attracted City movers and shakers, and young families. Opinions are
divided on Stratford. Investors rushed in, but owner-occupiers have
been slow to follow, as they wait for shops and services to appear. Mill
Hill village has houses that sell for £3 million. But close by, more
suburban streets offer good value. Fortis Green rides high on
overspill from Muswell Hill. Finchley suffers from being on the wrong
side of the North Circular, but revived interest in interwar homes bodes
well. Kilburn has lost out to better-regarded Queen’s Park and West
Hampstead but buyers are reconsidering it. Many have discovered the leafy
enclave Brondesbury, which trades at a premium, but has a way to go,
Savills says. Demand has been building around Willesden Green,
farther out and cheaper, but Willesden proper offers more of the same stock
but cheaper. A major redevelopment bodes well for Cricklewood, a
forgotten pocket of value which has tailed even Willesden.
What does it cost to buy in these areas?
After a 14-year property boom, “almost everything that can be prime in London
is prime”, according to Yolande Barnes. But her team of researchers at
Savills have nominated the following as candidates for upward mobility.
Tooting is the new Notting Hill, Savills says, because of its vibrant,
ethnically diverse feel. Rowena Walton, of the local branch of Winkworth’s,
notes: “The old multicultural audience is moving further down the Tube line,
and we are attracting more young people, who want quick access to the city.”
Most of these buyers have been priced out of Clapham, Balham or increasingly
Tooting Bec, an area that has already graduated to the “nearly prime” list
and where properties sell at a £50,000 premium to the Tooting Broadway area.
A three-bedroom house in Tooting proper, now costs more than £500,000 and a
two-bedroom flat, with garden, more than £300,000 — but expect to pay even
more on sought-after Chasefield Road. At those prices, will buyers still
have cash to spend at the bars and boutiques replacing the traditional
Indian eateries on the run-down high street?
Tucked between Streatham, Brixton, Dulwich and West Norwood, Tulse Hill has is
attracting property pioneers but is yet to provide them with cultural
returns. James Brooks of Kinleigh Folkard and Hayward says: “It mainly
attracts young professionals getting on the ladder. Families do buy here,
but it lacks the draw of a reputable family school.” However, transport is
reasonable, with the South Circular cutting through the suburb, and there is
a mainline station into London Bridge. With Brockwell Park, and the popular
Lido, within easy reach, expect to pay up to £320,000 for a two-bedroom
garden flat or £500,000 for a three-bed house from among a stock of
Victorian, and occasional Edwardian, homes.
Camberwell, close to Elephant and Castle, with its Tube station and big plans
for regeneration, has become a hub for young professionals and families. The
draw is the stock of period properties, notably Georgian townhouses, which
sell for as much as £2 million. Those with shallower pockets can find a
four-bedroom Victorian terrace for £600,000 - or a two bed flat in a
conversion of one, for £280,000.
The arrival of the BBC is poised to transform the fortunes of Salford, in
Manchester, but the broadcaster’s presence in White City, has failed to
brighten up the very industrial area. Yet, it appears White City’s time has
come: it’s close to Notting Hill, geographically, at least, yet it is
possible to pick up a ex-council flat for as little as £250,000 or a
four-bedroom house for just £450,000. David Sharron, of Ravenscourt
Residential, warns: “It may be a bit like the Docklands, where it has taken
years for the new development to have a personality.” He recommends streets
off Uxbridge Road, such as Boscombe Road and Ormiston Grove, as those with
the most personality in the area.
Nearby Acton, having caught the attention of buyers, attracts them from all
over the capital, rather than just more expensive neighbouring locations.
Those on a budget will find the best value in East Acton. The area is close
to the A40, is commutably close to good schools in Hammersmith and Chiswick
and there is a variety of buses, Tubes and trains. Should Crossrail go
ahead, Acton mainline will offer even richer transport opportunities. A
major draw is the sheer variety of stock — from Victorian to Edwardian and
even 1930s homes, to modest cottages and double-fronted detached family
homes (It’s possible to buy a small three-bed home for just under £400,000,
or a two-bed flat for under £250,000). Overall, says Andrew Gilbert of
Winkworth: “It’s a bit shabby-chic.”
Nigel Ellis, of Prickett and Ellis, says: “What is Fortis Green but a road?
One end of it is in Muswell Hill and the other in East Finchley.” The area
is riding high on on overspill demand from Muswell Hill and even Islington,
as families look for greenery and more space. The oldest part of the area,
along Fortis Green Road, has properties from the early 1800s, but the area
is graced with an array of distinctive period properties which are no step
down (budget up to £800,000 for a three-bed house and £450,000 for a two-bed
flat in a conversion).
In very pretty Mill Hill village, surrounded by fields, houses have been known
to sell for £3 million. But those willing to buy in the Broadway area have
unearthed much more modest prices for Edwardian homes and postwar flats.
Expect to pay under £450,000 for a modest interwar home, or £250,000 for a
two-bedroom flat. The high street is on the mend, with boutiques opening up
to cheer the heart of prime property pioneers.
Finchley has failed to share in all the price increases enjoyed by
neighbouring areas such as Golders Green, Muswell Hill and East Finchley,
according to Howard Greenfield of the local branch of Winkworth. But buyers
are increasingly willing to cross the North Circular to snap up charming
Edwardian homes with original features for less than £500,000 or two-bedroom
apartments for under £300,000. Greenfield says: “It was not so long ago that
we could not sell a flat more more than £250,000 because of the stamp duty
threshold, but that has now changed.” Excellent local education —
particularly state junior schools — and excellent road access in and out of
London are major draws, and make up for the limited shopping opportunities
on the high street, where estate agents, solicitors and sandwich bars
abound.
The North West London suburb of Kilburn should have been on the receiving end
of overspill demand from pricey Maida Vale, but according to Matthew Wender
of Kinleigh Folkard and Hayward, has rather lost out to its neighbours
Queen’s Park and West Hampstead. The problem is in part because of “a very
long High Road, best known for pound and penny shops.” But coffee shops and
gastropubs are making an appearance on the ever-thriving thoroughfare, and
the sturdy Victorian homes and numerous Tube, train and bus links speak for
themselves. Buyers now need a budget of £350,000 for a two-bed flat or
£600,000 for a three-bed home. Wender says: “If you were to buy a property
in Glengall Road, it would be a good investment over the long term, whatever
the market.”
The more discerning buyers have already discovered, Brondesbury, a leafy
pocket of streets which abuts the uber-pricey Mapesbury Estate, where buyers
would be lucky to get change from £700,000 for a three-bed apartment in one
of the redbrick Edwardian or Victorian villas. In Brondesbury, which has its
own rail station, expect to pay about £750,000 for a modest Victorian
terrace, or £450,000 for a two-bed flat in a period conversion. Large,
three-storey, five-bed homes can be had for £1.2m. It’s the rarified air
that will cost you; as a Brondesbury buyer, you’ll still need to head down
to Kilburn High Road to get your shopping.
Further out, Willesden offers better value, but don’t exit Willesden Junction
station, looking for the suburb — you’ll find yourself in yet-to-gentrify
Harlesden instead. Kevin Smith of Haart, who grew up in the area, says:
“Willesden is different through out. There are good bits and no so good
bits, but all of it is safe.” The most sought-after street are around
Willesden Green Tube, where prices have already headed skyward. But in the
less sought-after streets, with generally smaller homesm, you can still find
a two-bedroom flat for up to £300,000 or a family home for under £500,000.
Cricklewood, says Stuart Boyd of Winkworth, has “tree-lined streets and
Victorian homes — everything that people are looking for.” A planned
redevelopment of the Brent Cross and Cricklewood areas could see the
building of a new station and 7,500 flats; the project is the subject of a
planning application but is said to have the support of the mayor Ken
Livingston, a Cricklewood local. Boyd quotes average local prices of
£350,000 for a flat or £600,000 for a house, for the better class of homes.
Opinions are divided on regenerating influence of millions of pounds of
Olympics investment in Stratford. Many investors have bought into this East
London area, and the rental market is thriving, but the owner-occupiers
necessary for permanent revitalisation are stil waiting on the arrival of
infrastructure, shops and services. But Richard Everitt, of Winkworth, says:
“For transport, you can’t beat it. The Tube, buses and overland are very
good — and so are the night buses. City Airport is close by, and Stansted
not too difficult to get to.” Expect to pay up to £300,000 for one of the
many new-build two-bedroom flats, or just £325,000 for a three-bedroom
house. In the appealing Stratford village a two-bedroom cottage that might
once have been home to a dockworker can be bought for £275,000. John
Saville, of Spicerhaart Land and New Homes, advocates looking further
afield: “If you are looking for period property, Plaistow is an interesting
option.”
WHAT’S THE BIGGER PICTURE?
CARLISLE “Media coverage regarding the state of the residential market
has knocked confidence. Casual buyers have run for cover.” Peter Hayward,
Hayward Tod Associates
SHEFFIELD “The local market remains quiet with fewer inquiries from
potential purchasers than for some time.” John Francis, Crapper &
Haigh
YORK “The number of inquiries is down, but potential purchasers are
serious.” Edward Waterson, Carter Jonas
WILMSLOW, CHESHIRE “Unlike many downturns in the market, the shortage
of sales is not accompanied by an increase in the number of houses on the
market.” John Halman, Gascoigne Halman
CHESTERFIELD, DERBYSHIRE “Underlying demand remains strong with
bargain-hunters ready to pounce on any opportunities.” Neil Hunt, Wilkins
Vardy
NORTHAMPTON “Prices have fallen back a little. However, top-quality
village and country properties still attract interest.” Quentin
Jackson-Stops, Jackson-Stops & Staff
WALSALL “It would appear that the Christmas slowdown has come at least
a month earlier than normal.” Andrew Perrin, Fraser Wood, Mayo and Pinson
CAMBRIDGE “The market conditions are now as depressing as I can
remember. The volume of instructions is well down and the few buyers
entering the market are overcautious.” John Pocock, Pocock & Shaw
BEACONSFIELD, BUCKINGHAMSHIRE “When it comes to well-located,
attractive homes in need of some improvement, there is no shortage of buyers
with ability to purchase.” John Frost, The Frost Partnership
CARDIFF “Plenty of viewings are taking place, but most viewers are
holding back.” Kelvin Francis, Kelvin Francis & Co
EDINBURGH “It has been an unexpectedly – and phenomenally – successful
month for the upper and middle ends of the residential market.” Anthony
Perriam, Rettie and Co
