Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter, and Gary Duncan
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The first monthly fall in house prices this year was reported yesterday, fuelling fears that a looming downturn in the property market will hit the economy hard next year.
In the latest sign that the housing market is now rapidly losing steam, Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, said its regular survey showed that average national house prices fell by 0.6 per cent in September, marking their first monthly fall since December.
The gloomy news for homeowners squeezed by higher interest rates comes as Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, today concedes for the first time that the economy’s prospects will be dealt a blow by the global credit squeeze, forcing him to downgrade his forecasts for growth next year.
In a Financial Times interview today, the Chancellor insists that the UK economy remains in a “very strong position”.
But he admits that the impact of the squeeze in lending markets that triggered the Northern Rock debacle last month would “undoubtedly” have a wider effect on Britain’s growth next year.
“It would be prudent to assume it will have some effect on us here,” Mr Darling says.
His comments suggested that in his Pre-Budget Report, which is now expected as soon as Monday, he will be forced to markedly scale back the Treasury’s present forecast for economic growth of between 2.5 to 3 per cent next year, to perhaps as little as 2 per cent.
Mr Darling’s admission emphasises his limited room for manoeuvre at the Treasury since weaker growth will inevitably push the Government’s finances deeper into the red at a time when it is already borrowing heavily.
The Treasury’s strained financial position means that next week the Chancellor is already set to unveil Labour’s toughest budget plans this decade, with growth in spending on key public services set to slow sharply in the coming three years.
Yesterday’s latest confirmation that the housing market, which has been a key engine for the economy in recent years, is now faltering, will add to the Treasury’s worries over the outlook and further raise the high stakes over Gordon Brown’s decision over whether to call an immediate election.
The Halifax figures yesterday did show that, for now, annual house price inflation remains in double digits at 10.7 per cent, thanks to past, steep gains in property values.
But a growing number of City economists expect the annual rate of increase in prices to tumble into low single figures by next year as the market’s boom fizzles out.
A Reuters poll of economists yesterday showed an average prediction for house prices to rise by just 2.2 per cent over next year as a whole. The poll pointed to a one-in-three chance of a year-long drop in house prices in 2008.
The City also doubts how quickly the Bank of England may ride to the rescue of either homeowners or the Chancellor with cuts in interest rates. Yesterday, the Bank held base rates, as expected, at 5.75 per cent.
While a minority of economists believe the Bank will cut borrowing costs next year, most still think its nagging worries over inflation will see it stay its hand into 2008.
The housing market is slowing under pressure from the five interest rate increases pushed through by the Bank since August last year, and as homebuyers coming to the end of cheap, fixed-rate deals face more expensive repayments.
In his interview today, Mr Darling says that there are “quite clearly lessons to be learnt at several levels” from the Northern Rock affair.
He says that he is “prepared to look at the boundaries” between the three key institutions that had to cope with the crisis — the Treasury, Bank and the Financial Services Authority.
He also dismisses claims by the Bank of England that it could have avoided the run on Northern Rock if it had been allowed to pursue a secret rescue.
In a fresh hint that he might steal the clothes of the Conservatives, after they proposed this week targeting rich foreign residents living largely tax-free in the UK — the so-called “non-doms” — Mr Darling adds: “This is something which needs to be looked at.”
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Simon Jones, London. I fail to see the logic of your argument, but anyway if we do move back to a long term rental rather than owner-occupier housing market we will also see the government reinstating a core post war element of that - long term security of tenure for tenants and rent control. The Conservative governments in the 1980s only got rid of this in favour of the assured shortholds we see today because their vision was one of mass ownership, with a small rental sector being there merely as a stop gap for those moving area to work etc. I wonder how many buy-to-let landlords will view their 'investments' as attractive when they can't evict their tenant - even if they want to sell - and have the rent they can charge determined by some state bureaucrat. Whatever the state of the wider housing market, once the law relating to tenants rights is changed in this way the market value of these BTL properties will plunge, many probably becoming totally unsaleable.
George, East Sussex, UK
Hurrah! At last there is enough sentiment in the housing market to make buyers think twice before they rush into costly purchases. Too long has heart won over head, fuelled by the never ending coverage of a 'get-rich-quick' market portrayed in the media. Well, here's the reality. Many buyers have over-paid for housing relative to other 'life' expenses. Now the reality of that mistake is sinking in. Buyers have themselves to blame and deserve little sympathy. I am one of them. Now that I am trying to move again, all I can do is view the housing market with a greater degree of scrutiny than ever before and hope that sellers realize that the one-way ticket to 'property wealth' is over for the moment.
Stuart, Guildford, UK
Prices in the South East may be dipping, but in Aberdeenshire prices have risen 35% in the last 12 months, mostly due to the spiralling oil prices.
It will be interesting to see the next set of figures on how much Scotland's oil is bolstering the UK economy bearing in mind oil prices have more than doubled since last year.
New surveys off the West coast of Scotland have revealed large swathes of new reserves ready for recovery, far from "UK" reserves dwindling, they will actually increase during the coming years.
So all voters who "baulked" and couldn't face voting for SNP think again, we have the chance to become one of Europe's richest countries, let's not throw the chance away again.
Have a quick look at Norway's economy if you have any doubts
David Davidson, Aberdeen, Black Gold State
I suspect that the best bit of luck BTL investors might now have is an imminent election - Brown will try to prop up the housing market until after the vote and then it's all down hill from there. The smartest BTLrs will have got out already, some may just manage to escape in this pre-election period. The rest can look forward to financial ruin, bankruptcy and possibly eviction from their home residence. Won't that be a fun irony - buying a house at auction - the repossessed home of a BTL investor - at a knock down post-crash price. And the ex-BTL investor? S/he will have the challenge of finding a home to rent, having a credit history which is full of county court judgments, bankruptcy etc. Better start reserving your place on that bus shelter bench now!
Clive, Sussex, UK
This is just a temporary blip. House prices are going to continue rising strongly for decades. Why? Because the number of new houses being built is the lowest for 40 years, and the government aren't going to do anything to disturb that statistic, since they know that if they do, they'll be out. As British workers' buying power steadily falls towards parity with that of workers in India and China, the City has a major opportunity to advance larger loans to them; 100 year mortgages will become common, and a much higher proportion of the population will be forced to rent. Mass home ownership is a historical anomaly in England that only occurred during the first few post-war decades, however the trend of the last 27 years shows a more historically normal state of affairs being restored. British workers have low expectations and can be relied upon to meekly accept this restoration of their natural station in life. So much has already been achieved since 1979, after all.
Simon Jones, London,
The strong UK economy that Labour crow about every day is built on house price inflation and mortgage debt. There has actually been very little real creation of wealth and all the consumer spending has been fueled by banks lax lending standards allowing people to use house equity as a cash machine. People are living in a state of giddy disillusion. As evidenced by recent data, personal debt has rocketed but people feel better off. This is a recipe for disaster and leads to the creation of a nation of debt slaves.
Ed, London,
"The housing market is slowing under pressure from the five interest rate increases pushed through by the Bank since August last year"
Maybe - or maybe you just can't go on having double digit growth in property prices when wages are only increasing in single figures. Sooner or later that disparity must hit a brick wall.
The increase in interest rates and the repricing of credit generally in a short period means that rather than just running out of steam, the housing market will reverse sharply.
MarkS, Leeds,
The economic growth and what a brilliant chancellor Brown was, that we are always hearing from the Labour sycophants is beginning to look just a bit ridiculous as the economy begins to unwind. Anyone could have had the same growth figures that Labour brag about having started from a very firm footing established by a Tory chancellor. That amazing economic start that Brown had was soon squandered and the largest debt in our history replaced that firm footing and the so called growth was little more than a mountain of debt. The coming months will see the last of all the Labour crowing and the start of the spin and lies to try to explain how the economic genius of Brown was little more than a myth.
Also I still cannot understand how Brown has seemingly escaped his considerable responsibility in the Northern Rock debacle
D Case, Newquay,
It is now being admitted that the housing market has fallen. Almost certainly it is has crashed.
The question now is, how far? Houses are about 2-3 times overvalued by historical affordability criteria. But low interest rates might be here to stay, and there is a lot of pent up demand for housing. On the other hand, highly leveraged buy to letters will have to sell into a falling market if a recession hits, and they will, rightly, get no help to keep their properties from the state. Then immigration will be limited soon, and more housing will be built.
I am reckoning on a fall to about half current values. Not enough, sadly, to make it easy for young people to buy homes, but far enough to keep price : income ratios within some semblance of historical levels.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Now that none of us normal mortals can no longer afford to live in London or elswhere for that matter the doom and gloomers seem to think that we care that prices are about to fall. Yippee, did the buy to letters care about me. Hope they go through the floor.
Frederick, London, UK
We have been warned over a number of yearsby the World Bank and other external financial institutions that the U.K.s heavy reliance on the property market and the service industry could lead us to considerable vulnerability in the event of downturns in the economy brought about by higher interest rates and unsustainable repayments negotiated by reckless mortgage brokers.It may well be the time to hold that election since in six months time a whole new set of financial implications may see this"boom"period collapse.
RICHARD, SEATON, U.K.