It’s a material world, and she is a material girl. Last week, Madonna expanded
her property empire – buying the house next door to her eight-bedroom family
home in Marylebone – reportedly spending £6m to do so. It is the sixth
property that the singer has bought in the choicest residential areas of the
capital. She apparently beat off competition from Jennifer Saunders, the
writer and comedian, and the photographer Mario Testino in a housing market
that seems to know no bounds.
The same week, however, a little lower down the housing – and social – scale,
there were a few tentative signs that the froth is coming off the top of the
market, and that the champagne bubbles that have been fizzing since January,
with soaring house prices, are starting to go flat.
The latest index from Rightmove, the property website, revealed that asking
prices in more than half the boroughs in London fell in June, and that for
the first time since December 2006, average property prices in the capital
are no longer outperforming the rest of the country.
“The gap between house prices in London and the rest of the UK is getting
narrower,” says Miles Shipside, Rightmove’s commercial director. “Seventeen
out of 32 boroughs saw falls. We expect to see this drop continue over the
next few months.” Research from Smartnewhomes.com, a marketing website that
monitors asking prices for new properties, has also recorded falls in the
capital. The average price of a new home in the capital is now £385,686,
down 3% during the past year and 3.7% in May.
“The market may well be close to its peak in London,” says Liam Bailey, head
of residential research at the nationwide property agency Knight Frank. “A
slight shift in demand and supply is beginning to emerge. It indicates a
move away from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. Since March, however, there
has been a noticeable slowdown, with the number of new applicants
registering for properties down by 30% compared to recent months.”
Yet only last month, economists were saying that the boom in house prices in
London, fuelled by foreign buyers and bankrolled by bumper City bonuses, was
rippling down to neighbouring boroughs, pushing up middle-market prices and
forcing out first-time buyers.
So, what is really going on? Are these latest statistics really the first
evidence of the long-predicted slowdown? “Sort of,” says Simon Jobson,
manager of Winkworth’s Chiswick office, in Hounslow, a borough that,
according to the Rightmove data, has seen asking prices fall by 2.4%. “The
market has toughened up a bit,” he explains. “Whereas earlier in the year we
had 30 buyers chasing one property, we now have only five or six. There is a
certain realignment taking place, especially in the mid-market, from
£650,000 to £850,000.
“Buyers are no longer willing to pay silly money, so a neighbouring council
estate, a railway line or a noisy road is making a difference again. Buyers
are not losing confidence yet, just becoming fussier.”
To Peter Mackie, head of the London desk for Property Vision, a high-end
buying agent, this is a welcome sign of sanity returning to the marketplace.
“This year has seen an excellent market for secondary-quality property,” he
says. “If you had a house that wasn’t quite up to the mark, people rushed to
buy and paid top whack. Now buyers are focusing on quality, and that is the
sign of a fragmented market.”
It is a switch from what has been a seller’s market – and, in the most
expensive streets of prime central London, values have increased by 33.3% in
the past year, according to Knight Frank – to, if not quite a buyer’s
market, then one where sellers can no longer be quite so bullish.
Max Ziff, chief executive of Humberts, says that any small price drops being
seen are a reflection of the increase in supply of low- to mid-priced
properties on the market in May. “This was due to two factors,” he says. “A
degree of anxiety regarding potential interest-rate rises, but more
particularly, the anticipated introduction of home information packs.”
As the scales tip ever so slightly in favour of the well-informed buyer, even
the economists and estate agents who have been sounding warnings lately
admit that the capital will see double-digit price growth by the end of the
year. Perhaps the changing mood just means that, for the first time this
year, estate agents are being forced to work harder.
Doomers,
I am sure there will not be a crash...
listen to this audio clip:
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0703/houses_av.html
It's from the Republic of Ireland, but the situation is certaily different there from down here. They have the Euro, we don't. We have more immigrants, more students and more divorcees.
Michele, Richmond, UK
The housing market as whole is not inflated, only a few pockets of the country has vastly over priced housing. The London market is totally different from the rest of the UK. The MPC needs to take a view over the entire economy and not base their decision on the London market. Even in London there are areas where affordable housing is available. People needs to stop chasing the limited stock in central London. I do not believe it is a first time buyer's right to live in Chelsea or whereever the new property hotspot is. Vast areas in east London and South east London have decent transport links and where you can still pick up a 2 bed flat for less than 250,000...so what's the problem?
Mary, London,
One thing many people seem to be forgetting is that at least some of the people paying exhorbitant prices for property in London are fairly good with figures and have some understanding of economic fundamentals. Clearlly, the fundamentals are no longer there. Rental yields show that while many people are willing to bet on capital appreciation, very few potential tennants are willing to finance the ridiculous mortgages behind these bets. In fact what many BTL investors are doing is subsidising tennants to live in some of the most exclusive streets in the capital. How long will this last? Your guess is a good as mine, but investing in London property at the moment is no more than a bet, and as with all bets you should always make sure that you can afford to lose what you put in it.
Jo, London, UK
I cannot argue with Joe. Of course he is right. If there are more buyers than properties prices can only go up. Uh... but if there are more buyers than properties, does it mean that:
a) some people is forced to live on the streets? or...
b) there are multiple buyers forced to share each property
...I do not understand... can anyone help me?
And if government introduces a simpler planning system in Chelsea, does it mean there will be no supply shortage anymore and my £800k studio is going to lose value? Uh...!? I do not want this. Should we sign a petition to stop all planning? Uh...
Michele, Richmond,
Michele if you honestly believe prices can only go up then one day you are going to get a big shock. In the last 10 years people have only seen the good side to the housing market with prices going up and up. I think there could be a real problem in the UK economy when prices eventually start to slow...... and it will happen. 10-15% growth in house prices is not maintainable when salary growth is only 4-5%, so the slow down might not be this year or even any time in the next 5 years but it will happen eventually.
robin, london,
All Doomers,
Get real! Buy now until you can! Every day you read that more and more expensive champagne and wine bottles are uncorked in London, and record breaking prices paid for artworks at Christies'. The river of money flooding our city will never stop, how can it? The media have proven that London is a City-state where the normal economic rules do not apply. When I bought my last investment one-bedroom in Chelsea for £800k I asked all the estate agents and they told me that 80 buyers chase every property. Now, even if the demand were to fall by 40 times, there will still be 2 buyers chasing a single property. So, how can prices fall? you tell me...
Michele, Richmond, UK
The London market will of course slow down. This is due to more property coming to market, will people trying to cash in on the prices achieved by those next door. The small issue is that there are now less buyers are they have been buying like crazy for the last 18months. As the stock increases the market will do nothing for a month or so while vendors gradually get to grips that can no longer get the higher price as there is more choice. Prices soften (press will call in a crash) more buyers will come into the market and off we go again. The city has a had a good run of it so far this year and with M&A still going well bonuses should be pretty good. Indications start in Q4 and Q1 of 2008 will be the start to a bumper year in London Property. Economics 101 - if there are more buyers for a commodity than the commodity itself. Prices will rise. Until the government introduce a simple and equal planning system the lack of supply will continue and so will the growth in house prices.
Joe, London,
Michele of Richmond et al,
Check out history - it has happened before and will happen again. It typically happens when people think that "there's nothing that can go wrong on the horizon", because the horizon is close and the catastrophe waiting to happen is just behind it. It's not just a question of what a 100 year old yellow brick is worth - in the real world, it's a question of what the value of the money behind the asking price is worth; sterling, like all the world's major currencies is vastly overpriced.
Inflated property values are caused by inflated currency, which the Treasury has been printing like Parker Brothers prints Monopoly money ever since our new PM sold off Britain's gold supplies. It's not your house that's overpriced - it's the money you bought it with that's the problem. If you're going to survive what's coming, I hope that you have a lot of that funny money to see you through - but please don't urge anyone else to get themselves into your situation.
Tim, LONDON,
House prices have been rising, but the main factor pushing it all up is the factor that people are still willing to pay the price for such a house. Property investors have only been investing because they believe there is some sort of return available. With talk of mortgages getting ever larger and the sums involved in buying a small shoebox in central London getting ever higher, there has to be a point where the prices just don't make sense. This kind of closely mirrors the .com bubble years ago - assets bought for their potential value rather than their real value. Hopefully people will realise soon enough that it is not houses that pay the bills but cash
Random, It-costs-too-much, Over Here
That is not possible. It is just a blip. Everybody knows that we live on an island that is very overcrowded. An MPC member told us that housing demand will outstrip supply for the next 20 years. We have migrants, then families are splitting up and we have more students than ever. But even if that changed, house prices cannot go down, because noone will sell a house for less than he/she has bought it for. That would be crazy! Look back at the history of the past 13.5 years. Price have always risen, how can they fall in absence of high unemployment and with low interest rates and with nothing that can go wrong on the horizon. I think people should get real and buy until they can, because then it is too late, and if it is too late then you cannot buy then what you do? you have to rent! But if you do not rent, why are BTLers buying? Uh... I do not understand but what do I care if prices can only go up.
Michele, Richmond, UK
To answer Steves -Salisbury-remark.A hike in interest rates is detrimental to householders,workers,British Industry ,everybody in fact apart from you it seems.I think that your conspiracy minded envy of everybody and everything is im sorry to say is indicative of a mental malaise that affects far too many people in this wonderful and free country of ours.
stuart williamson, LONDON, UK
The cracks have started showing. The supply of greater fools have run out and there is soon going to be a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth. However let's face it: It was good while it lasted.
anthony, london, uk
steve of salisbury, i do believe that you have hit the nail squarely on its head
fox, london, england
Tony Blair will be remembered because house prices rose by over 300% during his reign. To bring house prices down we need to do 3 things. First increase the number of housing units built each year. Second, abolish tax relief on buy-to-let mortgages (tax relief for owner-occupiers, was abolished in the late 1990s). In 1999 592,000 mortgages were given to first-time buyers, and 44,400 mortgages to buy-to-let landlords. In 2006, mortgages to first time buyers had fallen to 410,800, those to buy-to-let landlords had risen to an over 330,300. Third, when owner -occupied properties are sold they should bd subject to capital gains tax (as happens in Europe). As this is politically risk taper relief should be given to existing owner-occupier to protect their existing capital gains.
John Fernandez, London, UK
Tony Blair will be remembered because house prices rose by over 300% during his reign. To bring house prices down we need to do 3 things. First increase the number of housing units built each year. Second, abolish tax relief on buy-to-let mortgages. Tax relief for owner-occupiers, was abolished in the late 1990s. In 1999 592,000 mortgages were given to first-time buyers, and 44,400 mortgages to buy-to-let landlords. In 2006, mortgages to first time buyers had fallen to 410,800, those to buy-to-let landlords had risen to an over 330,300. Third, when owner -occupied properties are sold they should bd subject to capital gains tax (as happens in Europe). As this is politically risk taper relief should be given to existing owner-occupier to protect their existing capital gains.
John Fernandez, London, UK
Steve, Agree. This is getting boring. Every time the MPC meeting gets closer the Vested Interests publish bleeting articles a week or so before to try and stall the inevitable decision that must be takem - raise the base rate. Without this the market will continue to climb out of reach, as it is completely driven by the amount of credit that can be borrowed by speculators (inc Buy-to-let) rather than the value that can be earned out of the property (rental yeild) or the need to homes (pity the average punter who will never ever be able to move house or buy).
Nicholas Lambert, Poole, UK
The real estate is the most popular business in China for the latest 10years. the price increased quickly,especially from 2000. 85% of the people can't support the housing price. for a common one, he must accumulate his income for nearly 20 years to buy a house,at the same time,without the other consumptions. Though the government executed some polices to calm down the real estate market. it didn;t work at all. Paining~~~ it;s a real big problem for us.
Harrison, Shanghai, people's republic of china
Judging by the tone of the piece it must be nearly time for the Bank of England's MPC meeting. Time once again to tweak the spin on the data so as not to alarm the committee and attempt to influence them (again) not to raise interest rates, eh mates. Trouble is your game is getting very old now and even the BoE are beginning to see through the deception.
Steve, Salisbury, UK
it's a big problem for chinese to buy a house.
Harrison, Shanghai, people's republic of china
Froth? What froth, dear? The housing market is overvalued due to distortions that none dare to say. The question should be: will we see a correction in out lifetime? If not, WHY not?
Fabio C, London, UK