Martin Weale
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House prices have risen rapidly for more than ten years and it is natural to wonder, as prices falter in the US, if this can last.
Buy-to-let is probably the weakest link in the market. Some bulk landlords rely on the rising equity in a portfolio of properties to build up a credit pyramid allowing them to buy more properties. Most property speculators probably think of housing as much safer than shares. They reassure themselves, like all speculators, with the thought that although prices are very high, they will continue to rise.
Perhaps they will, but multiple buy-to-let holdings create potential for instability. If people with property portfolios feel that prices are not rising fast enough to cover their costs, they are likely to think of selling, perhaps on a scale large enough to set off a bear market in housing. They do not have the inertia of owner-occupiers who enjoy the benefit of living in a house whatever its price is doing.
What does this mean for house-owners? Not that there will be a crash but that anyone with a large mortgage, especially for buy-to-let, is taking a big risk. At least they are supporting the Government's policy of promoting risk-taking.
Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Re Alex B's comments. I am a mortgage broker & portfolio landlord. Firstly I agree with all of Fiona's comments but would add that Alex's view that there is a bank of first time buyers poised to enter the market with large accumulated deposits is simply nonsense. Its my job to speak to prospective buyers every day and its simply untrue. The ratio between earnings and house prices in most of the UK makes purchasing immpossible for a huge part of the market. The average age of the FTB has risen to 32, when I joined the industry in 1985 it was around 21.
The point is the lanlord is as Fiona says in it for the long term with many never wanting to sell at all but simply relying on the increasing income as their pension. The landlords concern tends not to at what rate their asset might grow but can they maintain the yield, ie can they let it and for the right amount. This is currently not difficult. Most of these can cannot buy in the forseeable even if house prices fell by say 20%!
Keith, Norwich, UK
The previous poster remarks that 'Landlords have the added security of a supply of tenants to pay the mortgage when things get tough'.
We must remember that many tennents are staying out of this insane market by choice, steadily accumulating a large deposit ready to buy when the market turns. The housing market will be a very different animal during the crash part of the cycle.
Alex B, Hitchin, UK
I cannot agree that there is a widespread problem in buy-to-let with 'credit pyramids'. Lenders will only let a landlord borrow against a property to finance another if there is sufficient equity there. In general 15% must remain in all propeties thus limiting the gearing of the entire portfolio to 85%. This is low compared with further advances available to homeowners. You seem to inply that it is landlords who are borrowing to the hilt when in fact it may well be homeowners. Landlords have the added security of a supply of tenants to pay the mortgage when things get tough.
Finally, in practice, it is more dificult than you suggest for landlords to sell off their properties. There are higher transaction costs for landlords in selling, namely capital gains tax as well as the usual estate agents fees and legal costs. Additionally, most buy-to-let mortgages tie you in so that a fee of up to 5% would be payable to the lender. For all these reasons Iandlords have to be in it long term
Fiona Rankin, Richmond, Surrey