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Confirmation, however, that many areas are slipping comes in research into house price movements in 375 local authority districts since 1995. Durham, Harlow in Essex, Warrington and Swindon are among those that have lost status over the decade, according to new research from Savills. In 1995, the average house price in Swindon gave it 195th place in the local authority league. It now occupies the 245th slot. The prices have still appreciated in these underachieving areas — the average in Swindon has risen by 162 per cent, for example — but not as much as elsewhere.
Yolande Barnes, of Savills, explains that many of the causes of downward mobility in the North and the Midlands lie in the decline in heavy industry and subsequently in light manufacturing businesses. But she highlights another nationwide phenomenon that could become even more marked in future: the flight to quality. Once, you could expect that prices in a less attractive area would receive a boost if an adjoining district became sought-after. But, with values predicted generally to rise more slowly in future, this will happen less: buyers will opt for the nice-looking area. Swindon has already suffered the penalty of not being as pretty as some of its neighbours.
However, Savills’ league of 20 fastest-risers shows that looks are not everything. Newham in East London, an authority that takes in Bow and Stratford, is not scenic. But the regeneration efforts and the Jubilee Line extension to Stratford have propelled Newham from 314th place in 1995 to 140th today. Prices have risen by 320 per cent, albeit from a low base.
Nearby hipness also helps: East London boasts groovy bars and boutique-infested neighbourhoods such as Spitalfields and Shoreditch. This is one reason why Hackney, another East London authority, also appears on the fastest- risers’ list, having leapt from No 124 to No 58. But nor is urban cool everything. Seaside areas dominate Savills’ top 20 risers, with Penwith in Cornwall moving from 253rd place in 1995 to 127. There has been a 253 per cent average price rise in this authority, thanks largely to the demand for second homes from buyers in Kensington and Chelsea, where gentrification happened long before 1995, or even 1964.
IT'S A FAMILY AFFAIR
Since first-time buyers are crucial to the health of the housing market, we should all be interested in the ways in which the young achieve this goal. The findings of a YouGov survey for Bradford & Bingley indicate that harmonious family relationships are key, since increasingly home ownership can be secured only via the bank of mum and dad.
Almost half of the 1,500 people questioned said that their parents were donating money for the deposit. A greater degree of self-sacrifice is often involved: mothers and fathers are delaying retirement or remortgaging their homes. This trend may be an indication of the strength of family ties, but it still gives grounds for concern, because it suggests that parents are short of the cash not only to launch their offspring into home ownership, but also to fund their own retirement.
As the number of people who can rely on a final salary company pension decreases, there will be more sixtysomethings with insufficient savings for old age who cannot afford to subsidise their children. Some commentators believe that this could constrain house prices.
John Prescott’s policies aimed at helping the young on to the housing ladder seem not to have inspired those surveyed. Just 5 per cent were interested in the shared equity scheme, under which buyers will be able to borrow 25 per cent of a home’s purchase price from the Government via a lender.
Maybe the first-time buyers questioned had read of the apparent reluctance of lenders to sign up to the scheme, under which an entirely inadequate £1 billion will be available. Bradford & Bingley is not signed up, for example. First-time buyers might prefer Daddy Prescott to raise the £125,000 starting level for stamp duty to a more realistic level. But that does not seem to be within his gift.
IF THE HUT FITS . . .
It's cramped, pastel-coloured and you cannot sleep there at night, although it is OK to nap at any other time. This might not sound like the description for one of the most lusted- after residences in the land. But because a beach hut is by the sea, we can forgive its shortcomings. Read more about our fascination for waterside homes in our special.
anne.ashworth@thetimes.co.uk
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