Anne Ashworth
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In this week's shock headline, Halifax's January survey showed that prices rose by an average of 1.9 per cent, after ten successive months of decline.
The bank was swift to disabuse homebuyers of any notion that this signalled the start of an earlier than expected recovery. Yet the numbers still aroused curiosity about the true state of the market, as they suggested activity rather than the stasis generally portrayed in headlines. This is the case, but the business being done is distinctly different from the boom's frenzied dealings. Buying and selling in the late Noughties is developing its own rules. Almost all agents report more viewings, for example, but often at evenings and at weekends. Anne Currell, of Currell & Co, a North London estate agency, believes that people do not think it wise to be absent from the office on a pretext.
This prudence extends to other aspects of their lives - these are the types who did their homework at school and have continued this practice, making a thorough study of market conditions before they make a (Saturday morning) appointment to view anything.
Chesterton, Savills and others report that most prospective purchasers have accumulated decent deposits and know how much they can borrow. They are keen on a bargain. But, according to Savills, some vendors remain adamant that their property has not lost value - which indicates that gloomy headlines have less effect than we suppose. This delusion is resulting in a widening gap between asking prices and selling prices, Savills says, and also in protracted negotiations. But then this new breed of buyer is prepared to wait.
In fact, some have already been waiting for a while, snug and smug in rented accommodation. They may not be convinced that the market is at its lowest point, but they themselves are at an important juncture. As a result of interest rate cuts, their outgoings are likely to be lower if they buy rather than continue to rent. Another motivation is the infinitesimal interest being paid on the capital they banked from the sale of their former home.
Peter Rollings, of Marsh & Parsons, says that tenants not yet minded to become owner-occupiers again are demanding six-month break clauses in leases. They wish to seize the opportunities forecast to emerge in the early summer. Mrs Currell is among those who feel that more family homes will become available at this time, as unemployment takes its toll.
Fears of further jumps in the jobless count is, as Halifax emphasises, one reason why recovery has not yet arrived. Do not watch for headlines such as “Market Has New Spring In Step”. But would-be buyers are emerging and playing the game by the new safety-first rules. If such attitudes became the norm in housebuying, then this would serve as a a protection against future boom and bust. It is too early, though, to pronounce that the unreasoning passion that can grip the British in a rising housing market has gone from the national psyche.
The lost generations
The interests of twentysomething first-time buyers and seventy-plus savers are not usually seen as interconnected, although both merit preferential treatment. But the reduction in the base rate to 1 per cent has aligned the two groups. Banks and building societies argue that they need to offer decent returns to savers so they can attract sufficient funds to lend to those who want to climb on the housing ladder.
The close-to-zero savings rates likely to result from the base rate cut seem set, however, to drive more savers into the arms of National Savings&Investments, the Treasury-sponsored institution whose returns may not be munificient but which does offer a 100percent guarantee for every penny in its care, a powerful ploy in these nervous times.
As a result, lower interest rates will not mean cheaper borrowing for those who deserve it most - which is first-time buyers who now stand less chance than ever of snatching some of the bargain flats becoming available.
The billions in bailout cash handed by the Treasury to the banks ought to enable them to cater rather better for Generation Y and the older generation. But banks get shirty at any suggestion that they might use taxpayer cash to benefit customers who are not already comfortably off. For the moment, as we explain on page 4, it seems the only first-time buyers who dare even apply for loans are those who are the recipients of another form of intergenerational subsidy: advances from the Bank of Mum and Dad.
Get the drift?
A few ever-inventive - or desperate - developers have been using the snow as an opportunity to promote the advantages of living in city centres, close to the office, which means that you can walk to work if buses and trains are not running. But even before the transport problems caused by this week's weather, estate agents were receiving requests for second homes - in city centres. These cash buyers, it seems, cannot afford to be delayed or reluctant to work late.
But just in case a difficult commute has made you want to get away from it all, a Lake District property offers rural isolation and the chance for a total modernisation project. Vaugh Steel, a farmhouse with a barn and a lean-to but no electricity, is reached by a grassed-over single track road. The views are wonderful, however, particularly when it snows. It is for auction at a Savills sale on February 16 with a guide price of £245,000.
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