The first base-rate cut of the year has served yet again to highlight the widening gap between the housing market's two tribes: the lightly crunched, for whom home is where the heart and a degree of wealth still are, and the painfully squeezed, for whom home is a heartache.

The lightly crunched have been owner-occupiers for a decade or more and so are sitting, relatively comfortably, on a cushion of equity, despite the downturn. Their mortgage repayments will now fall farther as their circumstances entitle them to the best loan offers. Some may even have paid off their mortgages.

Many of the lightly crunched, unhappy with low savings returns, will be pouncing on auction and other buy-to-let bargains this year. They will also be committing cash to their homes, introducing bright colour - which is “so now”. But, although they know that beigy minimalism is “so over”, they will opt for accessories such as £50 throws from Next rather than the multi-hued makeover. The lore of the lightly crunched holds that, when the market recovers, neutral will still rock for most buyers.

For the painfully squeezed, owner-occupiers of more recent standing, fabric choice is immaterial just now as they may be dealing with the consequences of negative equity, which excludes them from the best loan offers even if they have never missed a repayment. Among the most painfully squeezed, according to Yolande Barnes, Savills' residential research director, are those who bought new-build flats in the past five years.

The absence of first-time buyers has contributed to the collapse in values for this type of home. But lenders are still refusing to provide affordable finance to this group, although the result of such a strategy would appear to be the destruction of their business. As the list of major themes for 2009 reveals, the attitude of lenders will determine the direction of the market. Last year ended with calls for government guarantees for mortgage lending, without which the loan drought is unlikely to end. Ministers should hesitate no longer.

House price surveys: Historically low transaction levels could make regional statistics less reliable. But the monthly national surveys will still provide a guide to trends. So, no excuse then to avoid their dispiriting contents. This is a summary of the latest numbers: prices declined by an average of 16 per cent in 2008 and are forecast to record farther falls, of 6-12per cent, before stabilising in 2010. A return to 2007 price levels is forecast to arrive soonest (2012-13) in those locations such as Scotland, where prices have subsided rather than slumped.

Valuations: The story behind house-price surveys will be increasingly controversial. For example, Halifax and Nationwide base their numbers not on deals but on mortgage approvals, which gives an up-to-date view of how valuers are assessing the worth of properties. But valuers now stand accused of sabotaging deals by setting values below the prices that buyers have agreed to pay. As a result, lenders are cutting the amount that they will advance, forcing buyers to withdraw if they cannot find the extra cash. Valuers are said to be motivated by a dread of future litigation from lenders seeking to recoup losses arising from over-optimistic valuations.

Bargain hunting: Prices have fallen. Sellers are being flexible. But until lenders change their stance, these discounts will be enjoyed only by those with cash or equity - or by rich foreigners. London is full of Italians bundled up against the chill in expensive parkas and enjoying the euro's purchasing power which, combined with the market's fall, has made Chelsea houses 40 per cent cheaper.

HomeBuy Direct: Ministers are hoping that this scheme could work wonders: their faith may be misplaced. Under HomeBuy Direct, households with incomes under £60,000 can apply for cheap loans of up to a third of the price of a new-build property. The cheap loans will come from developers and the Home and Communities Agency, a new quango that aims to be as caring as bankers are mean. But these same bankers are said to be chary about getting involved because many participants in other shared-ownership schemes are struggling with their mortgage repayments. As we told you, it's all down to the lenders.

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