Anne Ashworth
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Yesterday's sizeable and surprising cut in the bank base rate comes at an interesting point in the housing market. Whether it becomes a turning point, however, is dependent on various other factors, including whether our semi-nationalised banks do the decent thing or “do a Millwall” (as in the chant favoured by this club's supporters: “No one likes us, we don't care”).
The co-operation of the banks is crucial for housing market recovery. Robert Bartlett, the head of the estate agent Chesterton, thinks a six-month stamp duty holiday for all buyers would also help. If Alistair Darling needs persuading of the advantages of such a tax break before the Pre-Budget Report, he should examine a subtle change in mood in the market, discernible in the past few weeks. There are signs of a readiness to reconsider the merits of property, which the Chancellor should encourage.
The latest survey by the Halifax indicates that prices are still declining. But it also shows the resulting improvement in affordability, as measured in the price-to-earnings ratio - down from its July 2007 peak of 5.84 per cent to 4.92 per cent. Suddenly some first-time buyers can contemplate home ownership - and they are venturing into estate agency branches and auction rooms. If they have a deposit of 10 per cent, many couples need only secure a mortgage of three-and-half times their earnings to climb on to the ladder (not a phrase that we have heard much lately). But the availability of such a loan is far from certain. In theory, the one and a half percentage point base-rate decrease should allow banks to trim mortgage rates while bolstering their balance sheets - their main fixation just now.
However, not all base-rate tracker loans (which should follow the base rate) are getting cheaper. Some deals for new customers have been made less attractive: an open declaration that the banks want to limit the numbers who benefit from the base rate's downward trajectory. There is no justification for this policy, which was unacceptable before yesterday's base-rate move and untenable today.
Are valuers the real villains?
Valuers should take their place alongside bankers in the demonology of blame for house price falls - or so say some estate agents and buyers. They claim that valuers acting for mortgage lenders are routinely ruling that properties are worth much less than buyers have agreed to pay. As a result, lenders are dropping the amount that they will advance, forcing buyers to find extra cash or withdraw from the deal.
Critics of the valuers claim that these decisions are based on fear of future legal action from lenders - which professional indemnity insurance may not cover. After the Nineties' crash, valuers were hit with lawsuits over estimates made during the boom. Faced with these affronts to their integrity, valuers point out that some sellers are still overestimating how much their houses are worth and that some buyers may still be paying too much, even if they have negotiated reductions. Barry Hall, of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, says: “People must accept that we have a falling market and that a property must be assessed as if the transaction was to be completed on the day that the valuation is being carried out, not some time earlier.”
Valuers: villains or realists? This row will continue. Unfortunately, the bickering is unlikely to yield any guidance for prospective purchasers who want to know whether they are getting a bargain or being duped. The slump in transactions means that there is much less up-to-date selling price data than previously.
Auctions supply some hints. But Gary Murphy, of the auctioneers Allsop, notes that its busy sale this week was attended by investors, first-time buyers, parents and owner-occupiers, “all there to buy at what they perceive to be attainable and sensible market levels”. Lot 531, a repossessed two-bed newish-build flat in Manchester's hip Northern Quarter, fetched £75,000. In 2006 this flat sold for £195,950. This is not a typical decrease - we all know that there is an oversupply of city-centre flats in the would-be “iconic and edgy” category. But it is a reminder that the value of any property is the price that someone is prepared to pay for it.
Sensitive by nature
Banstead Court in Acton, West London, below, was a winner in yesterday's Building for Life awards, cited as an example of good housing on a blighted site. But this isn't the reason we are showing the winter-garden space in this eco-conscious housing association scheme. When Bricks&Mortar visited Banstead Court, we saw it had improved the lives of residents, who had found neighbourliness and content.
anne.ashworth@thetimes.co.uk
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If homes are affordably, why were people struggling to pay their mortgages with interest rates at 6%? There should be no problems or panic if houses were affordably, unfortunately, this is not the case. Also there shouldn't be any large banking writedowns if their mortgage books were in good shape
Chuck, London,
You don't need to be an economist to work out that with house prices at over 5-times average earnings and banks returning to their old lending multiples of 3-3.5, prices could easily fall by a further 40%. FTBers - don't let Anne, the Chancellor or anyone tempt you into this collapsing market.
Frank Hegarty, Farnborough, UK
At LettingFocus.com we say the measure of "current afforadbilty" is what % of peoples incomes is accounted for by mortgage interest NOT the ratio of earnings to house prices. This is c17% and slowly nearing long term equilibirum. At current interest rates expect a 5% fall in prices from Nov 08.
David Lawrenson, London,
Why do some writers on property pages fail to see that the so far modest drop in property prices is just the start. Vendors atre naturally reluctant to sell for much less than the peak prices of 2006 until forced to by their failure to sell.
Keith, WELSHPOOL, UK