Anne Ashworth
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This week both Gordon and Mervyn 'fessed up. The Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of England admitted to themselves - and to us - that we are entering a recession.
This candour has inspired some frank talking among ordinary people who are coping with the consequences of both men's past policies and now want assurances that steps are being taken to limit the impact of recession on the housing market.
Even the most pessimistic observers are now arguing that, despite the recession, house prices could reach their trough by autumn 2009, the earliest date yet forecast. But the decline could be longer-lasting and more painful, unless certain issues are addressed quickly. For example, some home loans have yet to become cheaper, despite the 0.5per cent cut ordered by Mr King earlier this month and Mr Brown's £37 billion bailout of the banks. More than three quarters of all banks and building societies have failed to pass on all of the benefit of the decrease to customers.
The slump in housing transactions, shown in new figures from Revenue & Customs, has led to calls for further reductions in the base rate; some predict it could be as low as 2 per cent by next year. But Abbey, HBOS and others will exploit the small print of loan agreements not to drop the rates on their tracker mortgages below 3per cent, although these deals are expected to track the base rate - down as well as up.
However, there are some signs that the normally restrained Mr King may be making his new, blunter views known to recalcitrant bankers. The price of some fixed-rate mortgage deals is coming down.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's declaration that these same bankers must use repossession only as “a last resort” suggests that he may have some inkling of what is expected of him now. As this column said last week, it would be unacceptable and impractical for part-state-owned banks such as HBOS to instigate a mass wave of repossessions, thus inflicting immeasurable damage on the housing market and the lives of families.
But, as Vincent Cable, the Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor, has remarked, there are, as yet, no guidelines as to how housing associations will become involved to ensure that those facing repossession stay in their homes. If “tell-it-like-it-is” is the new thing, then it should extend to such details.
Material Girl's remixed portfolio
In August 2005, the average price of a home was £166,141 and going up. But the home most in the spotlight was a Georgian mansion in Wiltshire, acquired four years earlier in a £9million deal. Ashcombe, Madonna's country seat, was starring with its owner in the August issue of Vogue, which seamlessly blended couture with property porn. The feature showed the Material Girl transformed into a Mitford Girl, feeding her chickens on Ashcombe's well-tended lawns.
The news of Madonna's divorce has concentrated attention on Ashcombe and the houses and apartments in London and Manhattan owned by the singer and Guy Ritchie, her husband. There's also a pub, the Punchbowl, in Mayfair.
Unlike the marriage, this portfolio has prospered, highlighting principles that every homebuyer should remember. Who would have thought that focusing on the riches of the Ritchies was not merely displacement activity in these tough times but also a guide to the wise selection of property?
Impeccable Ashcombe, pictured, could now be worth £20million, illustrating the importance of buying quality. Homes on main roads or afflicted with aircraft noise have suffered above-average declines in the current rout.
Mark McAndrew, of the estate agent Strutt & Parker, says: “An über-trophy estate such as Ashcombe will maintain its value. The top end of the market is still flying - we have been instructed to sell three estates over £20 million this year. One has sold already and the other two are sold subject to contract. We look forward to hearing from Guy or Madonna if they are interested in selling.”
The Ritchies moved into Marylebone in 2001 - before it became fashionable. They now own two adjoining houses in the neighourhood, each with its own mews.
The performance of these homes underlines the gains that can be made from spotting a location that has promise but offers more than mere proximity to smarter quarters near by. In the case of Marylebone, one of these extras is Marylebone High Street, with its mix of hip and useful shops.
Robert Bailey, a property search agent, comments: “Madonna saw Marylebone's potential. The first house which she bought for around £5 million is probably worth around in excess of £10 million.” But he adds: “The one next door which she bought last year for £5.75 million may not be worth as much, as it has been turned into a gym.” And therein lies another lesson: never make alterations to any property that suit you but may not suit a future owner.
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