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Why is the housing market like a bag of Maltesers? Are landlords ready to do the RUMBA? This column will try to answer these questions.
But first the big question: will the part-nationalisation of HBOS (owner of the Halifax), Lloyds TSB and RBS, bring forth an abundance of competitive mortgages, so encouraging recovery? Although this is the key aim of the injection of £37billion into these banks, Alistair Darling seemed hazy on the point, calling for a return to the - toxically imprudent - lending of 2007 and then thinking better of this crass remark.
Fortunately, mortgage specialists understood the situation better than the Chancellor. Most felt that there would not be an immediate benefit for borrowers but that there would soon be a better flow of deals from the state-owned banks who, together with the two previous rescues, Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock, will control 45 per cent of the mortgage business. Their eagerness to lend will stimulate the competitive instincts of their private sector rivals.
But, even if loans become more plentiful, there is no guarantee that house prices will stabilise, unless another half a point is sliced off the Bank of England base rate. This is the view of David Miles, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, who told MPs that prices could slide by another 5-10 per cent. But he added that a rate cut could turn that estimate “into a much smaller number, or not much at all”.
Knight Frank and Savills, the estate agencies, argue that prices have farther to fall. But Knight Frank thinks recovery could arrive a year earlier than expected, in 2010, if the £37 billion government bounty is spread about.
Key to the direction of prices is the number of homes that are repossessed. These have been forecast to rise with higher unemployment, but the state-owned banks may be reluctant to get involved with the human and other costs of repossessions. As one observer put it: “The Government does not want to throw people out of their homes, only to give itself the responsibility of re-housing them. Margaret Beckett, the new Housing Minister, should reveal her strategy on this as soon as possible. She has declared that “no one in Government is going to be Pollyanna-ish” in the face of the woes afflicting the market. This suggests, at least, that she recognises the scale of these problems. But she should be aware that the bailout has raised expectations.
The use of taxpayers' money to rescue banks increases the amount that every homeowner has staked on the future of the property market. These 18 million people - the homeowning democracy with a newly militant tinge - will want to see effective policies put in place. These should take into account the similarity between a bag of Maltesers and the housing market. Like a Malteser, the market is made up of lots tiny bits, micro-markets each with their own predicament that requires a specific solution.
Strictly business
What has buy-to-let investment to do with Strictly Come Dancing? Well, there's a need for fancy footwork when renegotiating mortgages and a glamorous presentation to cope with the extra competition in the lettings game. Sellers unable to find a buyer are increasingly letting their properties. This trend could soon spread elsewhere.
For the moment, in a new version of the North-South divide, sellers in the North are more pragmatic about pricing than their southern counterparts. But forecasts suggesting that the recovery may come earlier than previously thought may tempt northerners to turn into temporary landlords while they wait for prices to stage a comeback. Wherever you live, the only way to combat the new rivalry in the fight for tenants is with a good scrub-up and a dash of paint, rather in the way that the Strictly make-up and wardrobe squad turn scruffy rugby players into buff lotharios.
Properties available at bargain prices at auctions may be tempting some newcomers into buy-to-let. Knight Frank suggests that these amateurs and professionals learn to RUMBA (Research & Understand the Market Before Acquisition) unless they wish to walk into disaster. The Which? Guide to Renting and Letting (£10.99, www.which.co.uk) will take them through the steps.
The right homes?
Bricks and Mortar first raised the question 'Are we building the wrong homes?' in June 2006. We were proved right in our contention that a glut of apartments in northern city centres posed a threat to the whole housing market and did not meet the needs of families.
This week's picture is of the Accordia scheme, a high-density development in Cambridge that won the RIBA Stirling Prize this week because it was designed with families in mind rather than speculators. The slowdown in the market should cause us to pause and consider the building mistakes of the recent past and determine how they will not be repeated.
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