Anne Ashworth
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The credit crunch has curtailed the activities of even the most passionate buy-to-let investors. This statement - like other summaries of the current state of the housing market - is true, but only up to a point. A few powerful individuals in the £120 billion buy-to-let industry, with a stash of spare cash and no need to borrow, have never been busier. One man's no-go zone is another's adventure playground.
Deposit accounts are offering 6 per cent plus. But, for buy-to-let's affluent awkward squad, such returns do not provide quite the thrill of a whole apartment block reduced in price by 20per cent. There are risk-takers stalking the streets with £30 million or so that they wish to spend on anything from such flats to Edwardian villas.
Such is the competition between them for repossessions that Heenal Lakhani, an investor who featured in Bricks and Mortar in February, can no longer lay claim to his title of the Repo Man: he now finds himself regularly outbid.
The new acquisitiveness of these prime movers is in marked contrast to the nervy mood of the small-time participants in the buy-to-let sector, the owners of one or two flats. Even if they wanted to buy another property, they would not get the funds, as more banks have tightened their rules on lending to amateur landlords.
This group may not be minded, or able, to add to their portfolios, but they remain committed to the cause for the same reason that the big beasts are keen to accumulate apartments. The scarcity of mortgages means that more people need to rent. This statement about the state of the housing market is a fair summary of the current situation - although, again, not the whole truth.
But rising rents and strong tenant demand are breeding complacency among some landlords. A member of the Bricks and Mortar team is looking for a place to rent. Much of what she sees would better be described as squalid rather shabby chic.
The owners of such low-grade apartments will be vulnerable when the buy-to-let power players start to market their newly spruced-up apartments. Moreover, it would be wrong to assume that first-time buyers will, inevitably, hear the word “no” if they ask for a loan. Halifax says that its current account customers can get two-year 6.14-6.44 per cent fixed rate 97 per cent mortgages. These competitive deals may be sufficient to make some twentysomethings in steady employment say goodbye to rental flats.
A NEW DOOR OPENS FOR BORIS
Heal's, Habitat, Next and the other furnishing stores on Tottenham Road Court in London provide the wherewithal for this season's domestic makeovers - colour is back, since you asked. However, those who are unable to tolerate the sight of another swatch can take a trip around the corner to Store Street to view the plans for a new look - on a vastly superior scale.
Des Res, an exhibition at the New London Architecture gallery (until June 14), examines every aspect of current and future housing schemes in London, from the controversial Lots Road scheme in Chelsea, designed by Terry amp;#33;Farrell to Noho Square, a Candy brothers development in Bloomsbury, equally contentious for its bid to re-name a neighbourhood.
A trip around Des Res is made all the more interesting by picturing the impact that Boris Johnson, London's new mayor, pictured, could have on such issues as the density of development and its type. His manifesto pledges to provide more affordable homes, but he wants a amp;#33;decent number to be family-sized rather than edgy loft apartments. There will also be renovation of the amp;#33;capital's 84,205 empty homes, less building on back gardens, more preservation of historic views and more protection of the green belt.
The new mayor's considerable charm and intelligence will be necessary to reconcile the sometimes conflicting aims of these aspirations. If there are to be larger homes, this means that fewer can be built on each site, making the targets trickier to achieve.
Meanwhile, as Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank says, much of the brownfield land yet to be developed needs costly “remediation” - the removal of pollutants. Cash-strapped housebuilders may not be prepared to contemplate the expense of this work. They may also be hindered by the requirement to preserve vistas. As a result, Boris Johnson may be seeing a lot less of his own family home in Islington (actually, it's Holloway).
KEY INITIATIVES
Not to be outdone by Boris Johnson, Gordon Brown this week re-stated some of his own housing policies, in particular, the help available through the two Open Market HomeBuy schemes: OwnHome, a partnership between the Places for People housing association and the Co-operative Bank and MyChoiceHomeBuy, provided by eight other housing association. Details are available from the Housing Corporation's website (housingcorp.gov.uk).
Whenever we give this information, we hear from upset readers who are not key workers and thus almost certainly ineligible for such schemes. Mr Brown is obviously unaware of the impassioned views on the lack of fairness of these schemes; Mr Johnson should bear them in mind as he formulates his housing strategy.
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Buy to let is only dead for the 'arm chair' investor who did no research on the VALUE of their new build flats which they bought at inflated prices. Where do you think those who are being repossesed are going to live? Local councils aren't going to be able to house them, so landlords will.
John , Manchester, UK
I love it, the house is on fire but not burning.....isn't that right Anne?
dan, nz, nz
An irresponsible article, hinting that things aren't so bad, at a time when 'insiders' such as myself know they are as bad as they possily can be.
Why buy now, for BTL, as a home or investment when the same place will be 30% less in two years time.
There's no property shortage just speculation
becky, oxford,
Buy to let is not dead. Buy the right property, in the right area , at the right price (min 10% behind RICS valuation), with a rent that covers mortgage and leaves £100+ per month spare - and you can rest easy until the market picks up again WHICH IT ALWAYS DOES. Even if it takes 5 years.
Colin , Alnwick, UK
Please, please can I plead for an end to the use of 'yield', in buy to let decisions. Susan Emmett yesterday argued for a more professional approach to investment appraisal.
Two areas should be analyzed in every deal; cash flow and forecast capital growth.
Jim Marley, Newcastle, Tyne and Wear
The sums do not add up.
They wouldn't be buying at 20pc below value but at 20pc below price. I think the price has further to fall.
In the meantime, a 20pc reduction only improves the yield from dire to bad.
Mary, Birmingham, England
There are parts of the world outside London .. for example rents are falling in Northampton, buy to let is dead and estate agents are closing.
Simon B, Northampton, UK
Nice try ladies...
Consensus view is rapidly moving towards a US style 20% plus crash in nominal values (see Citibank and Dresdner's recent analysis). Since yields remain below base rate in much of the country even at 20% off the sums don't add up for that apartment block.
Ian, London,
What's with the perpetual optimism? I can't see why a professional investor with any sense would buy a property that would be worth 30% less in 3 years.
The Halifax data already shows a 6% house price drop in only 8 months. A fall to 30% in 3 years is not inconceivable.
Lenny, Coventry,
Is this a joke ?- house prices are crashing faster than a falling brick.
"such returns do not provide quite the thrill of a whole apartment block reduced in price by 20per cent" Not so thrilling if you are stupid enough to own one! RIP BTL!
James, London, UK