Anne Ashworth
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A group of homeowners are in rebellion over their tax burden and their fight has already won concessions. But they remain incensed - and some are beginning to vote with their feet, with Geneva and Zurich being favoured destinations, even though a branch of The Wolseley restaurant has yet to open in either city.
These locations gives a clue to the identity of these agitators: the “non-doms”, the wealthy foreigners living in London's most splendid houses who are fighting back against the curtailment of their tax breaks. On Tuesday, in a second U-turn, an alarmed Alistair Darling once more softened his non-dom reforms. Gains made before April 2008 on properties in offshore trusts will now not be taxed.
Further changes could follow - or even the postponement of the scheme - as reports emerge that non-doms are selling their Belgravia homes and taking their bank balances, brains and business acumen elsewhere. Seldom has a campaign against an unfair tax been so deftly waged.
First-time buyers, by contrast, are at the mercy of Mr Darling as they do not have the financial clout - or the lobbying skills - of the non-doms, who are people who know people.
The latest non-dom climbdown coincided with figures showing that last year only 40 per cent of first-time buyer mortgages were for properties below the £125,000 stamp duty threshold. This compares with nearly 50 per cent in 2006. Meanwhile, these new owner-occupiers are typically paying out a fifth of their income in mortgage payments.
These statistics put pressure on Mr Darling to make some concession in next month's Budget, so giving a helping hand to those who would like to take advantage of lower property prices to clamber on to the ladder. This would allow him to take the credit for reversing the record fall in the numbers of owner-occupiers, highlighted this week by the Halifax. More Britons are renting because they simply cannot afford to buy.
But the property market slowdown means that Mr Darling has financial problems of his own, as a result of the Exchequer's dependency on stamp duty and inheritance tax.
Stamp duty revenues could be less than expected - around £7.3 billion in the 2007-2008 tax year - thanks to lower house prices and the reduced number of transactions. The departure of non-doms will also cut tax revenues. As employers - and prolific spenders in The Wolseley and other West End restaurants and in the shops of Bond Street - they indirectly cause money to flow into the Exchequer.
Mr Darling could be left with no other options but to extol the existing stamp duty relief on zero-carbon homes. He can do so, secure in the knowledge that the Treasury has made it extremely difficult to qualify for this rebate. Conveniently for Mr Darling only a handful of dwellings have, to date, met the eco-concious criteria. The inhabitants of Barnes, Bolton, Bromley, Bromsgrove would like to be greener and less heavily taxed but, just now Mr Darling is listening only to the Belgravia crowd.
OUR SURVEY SAID ...
Seldom have house price surveys been so closely scrutinised and never have they been so contentious. Who would have thought that the term “seasonally-adjusted” could ever have become associated with accusations of deceit?
Last week we commented on the anger of the online fraternities (who long for a house price collapse) over the latest Halifax and Nationwide surveys. These show prices either standing still or slipping - findings largely in tune with other surveys, such as the RICS research indicating that buyers are hesitant and that some sellers are yet to reconcile themselves to the new lower value of their homes.
This lack of realism leads to the sizeable falls being recorded by surveys based on asking prices, such as Rightmove, whose view of the current property scene is more gloomy than those based on agreed prices. This group includes the Halifax, Nationwide and the Land Registry whose figures are seen as close-to- definitive but - irritatingly - a bit out of date.
Homeowners are scanning all these numbers looking for the one that tells the truth. But the truth is that each provides a snapshot that makes up the whole picture: on page 16, we explain how that snapshot is composed. But, despite what the online house price doomsters may claim, no trick photography is involved.
POLL POSITION
The Government's plans for three million new homes for 2020 are based partly on the belief that the Eastern European workers will stay in Britain, permanently serving café lattés and cleaning floors. However, many Poles are planning to go home and spend their free time studying websites such as mandom.com for data on property in Cracow (pictured below) and other cities. A simple five-room house in Cracow costs about £150,000 - a figure that calls into question the Government's forecasts.
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