ESTATE agents are a bit glum, for which they are blaming home information packs (Hips), Northern Rock and the media. Some of respondents to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) September poll of its members’ views muttered darkly about “a long winter ahead”.

It is perhaps a good thing that they were speaking before this week’s forecast from Capital Economics, which raises the possibility of price falls for 2008 and 2009, albeit of just 3 per cent. This decline will take the shape of a “shallow, protracted adjustment”. More such language and people will start to view the Tate Modern’s latest major exhibit – a 548ft fissure running the length of the gallery floor – as depicting the cracks starting to show in the property market.

But Capital has been badly wrong in the past and its views go against those of the majority of commentators, who expect a soft landing, rather than a crash. RICS contends that a major correction remains unlikely while employment conditions are buoyant. Meanwhile the supply of properties continues to remain scarce in many areas, helping to support prices. It is also important to remember the strength of the market over the past 12 months. Primelocation, the website, is seeing confidence slacken in London, but still notes that prices are 23 per cent higher than a year ago. Anyone expecting that such a pace of growth could be sustained have only themselves to blame if they are miserable now.

FIRST-TIME WHO?

BACKGROUND

• Opening bids - Is it Christmas already? Tell Santa to break out a rate cut without further delay?

• Which economists will win the contest to be the gloomiest over the future for prices?

• Which camp are you in - storm clouds or showers? Even the experts are split

• Opening bids - a year in property

BACKGROUND

• Opening bids: Why the Government must do something about Britain’s empty properties

• Will there be a rate cut before Christmas? Kate Barker knows - but she’s not telling

• Downturn and downtown in 2008: how investors in UK city-centre flats may feel the chill first

• Opening bids

Sub-prime slime is oozing out everywhere from the US -where will it spread next?

BACKGROUND

• Comment: The housing shortage

• Ripple effect from Belgravia to the suburbs

• Comment: the property market slowdown

• Tax perks for a few are adding to the property have-nots’ sense of injustice, but don’t expect reform any time soon

• This was not a timely retreat. What does the government now mean to do to save the planet?

The silencing of our Mr Spocks

Our public administration has specialised in low-level, chronic inefficiency with a counterpoint of big talk

BACKGROUND

• Average prices in the South are 1.59 times higher than the North

• The City’s ardour for status homes remains unabated

• The dawn of a more eco-conscious Britain may be delayed

• It's bonus time, let the stampede begin

• Prices and politics either side of the border

Hips will make us greener, or so the Government says

• Hips have already won hearts and minds and will make us all greener, or so the Government says

BACKGROUND

• Mortgage competition makes millions immune to base-rate moves

• Hidden costs of a place in the sun

• Primark Principle revises gloomy views

• Going green is not cheap

Who loves homeowners most? The Government has now made its bid to snatch this coveted role from the Tories. But, strangely, the Autumn Budget inheritance tax and capital gains tax breaks – for buy-to-let investors and second-home owners – were focused on middle youth and old age. Twentysomethings were the forgotten people.

There was no stamp duty sweetener for first-time buyers, although half of young workers cannot afford their own home in London or the South West. The situation is not much better elsewhere. Alistair Darling is, perhaps, postponing a stamp duty cut until nearer an election. As early as 2008, however, a new capital gains tax rate of 18 per cent (down from 24 per cent) will benefit a better-off person selling a second home or a buy-to-let flat. As Jane Feeney of Mayer Brown International, the solicitors, explains, the length of time a property has been owned will be irrelevant: the same rate applies whether you have owned the home for just one year or 20, a radical reform of the previous rules. There is some speculation as to whether Mr Darling actually planned to be quite so kind to amateur landlords and the second-home owning classes. But, whatever his intentions, the rising number of frustrated first-time buyers could mean that there is no headlong rush to benefit from his generosity.

Demand for rental properties is surging and a new kind of tenant is emerging: the family enjoying the freedom associated with renting before they once more embrace the duties of the owner-occupier. But many may find themselves in the tenant role for longer than they had expected. As we said last week, the Tories’ inheritance tax proposals were predicted to spark a new staying-put trend, with fewer older couples selling larger properties for tax-planning purposes. As a result, the number of homes for sale would fall. The Government’s plans seem set to provoke the same social change.

HIPS ARE CREAKING

The calamity-strewn launch of home information packs (Hips) may have obscured their original purpose, which was to speed up transactions and promote environmental awareness. But those who recall these aims are remarking on the gap between aspiration and reality. Hips for leasehold properties are running to as long as 64-pages, for example. This verbosity is bad news for trees, as few people will read a dossier of this size in e-mail form; they press the print button instead. Robert Bartlett, chief executive of Chesterton, the estate agent, reports that delays in preparing the energy performance certificate, the key element of the Hip, are often holding up the exchange of contract stage of a deal. So much for the promise of superfast sales.

The Hip was supposed to save money for the buyer, as it would include all searches. But Mr Bartlett says many buyers’ solicitors will not accept searches carried out by Hip providers. Buyers are being forced to pay solicitors to redo the searches, a development which we reported in August. This is at the insistence of mortgage lenders, who feel it may be easier to sue a legal firm for negligence than a Hip business that may be – how can we put this nicely? – here today and gone tomorrow.

BLAIR’S BENEFIT

He may not be happy that the capital gains tax changes mean that Labour will be known as the party of the second-home owner, but Tony Blair may nevertheless be grateful for them as he considers the purchase of Winslow Hall in Buckinghamshire. This £3 million pile was one of the top ten country houses selected by our architecture correspondent, Marcus Binney. To see the rest go to timesonline.co.uk/marcus binney. anne.ashworth@thetimes.co.uk

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