Anne Ashworth, Property Editor
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THE Bank of England is grimly determined that rates will continue to rise until the housing market subsides. The relationship between the central bank and homebuyers is starting to resemble that between Supernanny and her recalcitrant charges, with the ever-present threat of the Naughty Chair.
The latest data suggests that the tough-love treatment is beginning to work. Halifax figures for the second quarter of the year may show that prices are still surging in London, East Anglia and Northern Ireland. But the Halifax also points out that the pace of growth is slackening in the South West, the Midlands and Wales – a trend that Capital Economics sees as significant. This is the first time that prices have fallen on a quarterly basis in at least three regions since the second quarter of 2005.
Capital’s own research offers another snippet: fewer people are viewing new developments. Are housebuilders anxious? Not really, because they are yet to start offering more incentives to buyers. Anyone with an infinite appetite for more such statistics – and I know there are many of you out there – will be keen for more. Hometrack’s June survey indicates, for example, that values are climbing in just 28 per cent of locations in England and Wales, against 44 per cent in April.
Richard Donnell, of Hometrack, also discerns a less ebullient mood in London, although it is unlikely that the capital’s grandest areas can now ever be cowed by more expensive borrowing. In those neighbourhoods, most buyers have no need of mortgages and can shrug their shoulders at the Bank of England’s methods of discipline. But, elsewhere, buyers must obey – or else.
There is, as I have set out, considerable evidence of a cooling in the market’s temperature. Over the next few months, more mortgage borrowers will see their repayments leap by as much as a third when their fixed-rate deals come to end – which should further dampen the mood. This is not the time for the Bank to overstep its authority.
THE MISSING FLOOD FACTS
Almost every report on the floods ends with the words “the clean-up looks set to take months”. But there should be immediate action on issues that have arisen as a result of the devastation caused to properties in Sheffield and other areas. First and foremost, people need better information on the chances that their home could be at risk. The Environment Agency’s online map gives useful guidance, but anyone thinking of becoming an owner-occupier in an apparently susceptible location needs to know more.
It is often claimed, for example, that the 160,000 homes to be built on the Thames Gateway – the 41-mile tract of often derelict land from Westferry in Tower Hamlets to the Isle of Sheppey, which takes in the Olympic zone – will all be in jeopardy, as the area is a flood plain. The truth about the is more complex and rather less alarming. Just 54 per cent of the area lies on the tidal flood plain. The average chance of flood is one in 2,000 – or that it should be flooded just once in 2,000 years; that is about the same level of risk as Central London.
All local authorities must now prepare strategic flood risk assessments – a task that will obviously take some time. But these have already been completed for the Thames Gateway, which means that homes should be built only in the least hazardous areas. Anyone considering the purchase of a home now may feel all at sea – the number of water metaphors in the language highlights our abiding anxiety about the problems that it can produce. But there are some rules that can be followed, as we explain on pages 6-7. For example, choose a home on the highest side of a road, so that any water falls down into the main drain.
A small stream may see charmingly bucolic, but Jonathan Harington, of Haringtons UK property finders, gives warning that it can turn into a torrent. He remarks, however, that mills – although they are often by a river – seem remarkably immune to flooding.
Mr Harington calls his property perimeter research process “due diligence” and wonders why so many people buy a house because of a rush of affection. But the Government and local authorities should help to provide the information that would provide more reasoned assessments.
THE PULL OF THE SEA
Have new concerns about the proximity of water to a property diminished the allure of a house by the sea? Quite the opposite. Prices in regenerated or already smart coastal towns are increasingly much higher than those inland in the same county: examples of this disparity, as we report on pages 14-15, include Llandudno, the new Welsh playground of the Cheshire rich, and Rock in Cornwall, popular with the Fulham set. But the resort most out of step with its surroundings is Sandbanks in Dorset. Mansions may cost £8 million, but it is still not glamorous or exciting enough for Wags or Sloaneys, which may be part of the attraction.
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