Lucia Adams
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House price growth has dropped to the lowest level in five months - further proof that the property market has passed its peak.
The cost of the average property increased by 0.3 per cent in May according to Halifax figures released today. This was the third month in a row in which house price rises slowed and is a significant slowdown from the average monthly rise of 1.3 per cent recorded in the first four months of the year.
The annual rate of house price inflation also dropped to 10.6 per cent from a peak of 11.1 per cent in March. Halifax said that the interest rate rises contributed to the market cooling.
Commenting, Martin Ellis, Halifax chief economist, said: "Higher interest rates, the negative trend in real earnings growth and rising food prices are likely to bite increasingly on householders' finances over the coming months, curbing housing demand. House price inflation is expected to moderate as a result."
Buyer numbers fell for the fifth consecutive month in April with the pace of decline increasing. Mortgage approvals fell to 107,000 - their lowest level for 12 months in the same period - and were 16 per cent below the peak of 128,000 in November 2006.
The stock of unsold property on estate agents' books rose in April for the first time in six months, indicating a loosening in market conditions.
The Halifax report said that solid economic conditions and high employment had supported housing demand and pushed house prices up. The UK economy continued to grow at above its long-term average pace with GDP 2.9 per cent higher on an annual basis in 2007 Q1. The number of people in employment has risen by 93,000 over the past year.
The average cost of a UK property has risen by almost £19,000 in the past 12 months to £196,893.
David Stubbs, senior economist at the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), said that the Halifax figures showed that a slowdown in the housing market was "well and truly underway". He said: "With mortgage rates continuing to rise, first time buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to afford the massive mortgages they now require to get on the ladder.
"Although the housing market will continue to slow in coming months, good economic conditions and a lack of homes for sale will continue to support prices and prevent the crash that some commentators continue to predict.
However, if interest rates were to rise to 6 per cent before the end of the year, a sharper slowdown and a difficult 2008 would be on the cards."
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What exactly is a crash? When David Stubbs and others talk about good economic conditions preventing a crash this assumes that markets which are not rising will be no more than flat. History time and again has shown that this is not true. The housing market will eventually find its natural level. If the 20% or so rise in the last 18 months is not based upon sound economic fundamentals which justify THESE prices then the market will fall back. Once it begins to fall no one can predict accurately where it will stop, because this will depend upon how many BTL investors and others hold their nerve and how many don't. It doesn't matter how strong the economy, any seriously overvalued asset will eventually fall back. When will the Times stop giving so many column inches to overly simplistic economic statements from professionals who have a vested interest in keeping the housing market inflated. If we're going to have economic analysis, let's have it at a more sophisticated level.
C. Wright, Brighton, UK