To find a town dominated by elderly people, it used to be necessary to head
for Bournemouth, Bognor Regis or one of the other towns on what was cruelly
known as the Costa Geriatrica of southern England. Not any more. The British
population is greying at such a rate that some of the unlikeliest places are
rapidly acquiring the age profile of retirement resorts.
Figures compiled for The Sunday Times by Knight Frank estate agency show that
some of the country’s most rapidly ageing districts are to be found in
semi-rural areas fringing large cities, especially in the West Midlands.
You would struggle to find a bowling green in south Staffordshire, a
straggling district that stretches from Cannock Chase to the outskirts of
Stourbridge. Yet over the next 10 years the percentage of over-60s in the
area’s population is predicted to grow from 27% to 33% — making it the third
fastest ageing area in Britain, behind Berwick-upon-Tweed (up from 32% to
39%) and West Somerset, currently the oldest area in the country — where 36%
of the population is over 60, rising to a predicted 42% by 2017. Other areas
greying rapidly include Tamworth, Staffordshire; Bridgnorth, Shropshire;
Redditch, Worcestershire and Suffolk Coastal.
It is not that retired people are abandoning the joys of the English seaside;
West Somerset includes Minehead, as well as the lightly populated hills of
Exmoor; while East Lindsey, the fourth fastest ageing part of the country,
has Skegness as its main town. Rather, says Liam Bailey, head of residential
research for Knight Frank, many parts of the country are ageing simply
because their residents are staying put and growing old — and preventing
younger people moving into their homes.
“South Staffordshire, for example, is an area where the population is
declining,” says Bailey. “Younger people are moving away while older people
are staying on. It is a passive ageing population. There are other
districts, such as Alnwick in Northumberland, where the population is
growing older because people are moving in — the population there is set to
grow from 31,000 to 36,000 over the next 10 years. But in resorts along the
south coast, such as Eastbourne, where you might expect an ageing
population, the trend has reversed. They are busy places and are attracting
the young.”
Britain’s youngest districts, by contrast, are mostly in London — not only
because the capital attracts school and university leavers from across the
country, but also because it is a focus for immigration. Yet such areas are
not getting younger at anything like the same rate as the oldest districts
are getter older.
Those who stand to lose out from the demographic trend in Britain’s most
greying districts are not just the owners of trendy bars and designer shops
but young couples bringing up families in cramped accommodation who would
like to buy a larger home. Having made fortunes on their houses and enjoying
far greater wealth than their parents did in retirement, elderly people are
disinclined to downsize to flats — leading to a critical shortage of family
homes for younger buyers with children.
Experian, the information and data collection group, has identified a
socioeconomic type it calls “Golden Empty Nesters”, who typify the
“bed-blockers” of the housing market. Accounting for 585,000 people, or 1.3%
of the population, this group continues to occupy large family houses, even
thought their children have long since left, and have no inclination to
downsize. The towns where they are most commonly found are Guildford, Hemel
Hempstead, Harrogate, Redhill and St Albans.
The “log-jam” in the property market is demonstrated in figures compiled by
Experian that show 11.2% of the over65s are living in detached houses —
slightly more than the 10.5% of 26-35-year-olds who do likewise, and not a
great deal less than the 17.7% of 36-45-year-olds who have the run of a
detached house. Bungalows are still popular with the over65s — 24.4% of whom
live in one — but there seems considerably more reluctance by older buyers
to live in a flat. Only 15% of them do so — compared with 16.7% of
26-35-year-olds and 21.5% of 36-45-year-olds.
Separate research by Professor David King of Anglia Ruskin University, based
on the 2001 census, suggests that even among the over75s, 12% are lording it
in properties with eight or more rooms. The problem, he recently warned the
government, is that policymakers have tended to work on the assumption that
elderly people will downsize as their children leave home, and they become
widowed — and consequently have underestimated the number of family houses
that will be needed.
According to Vivien Aldred, of the Retirement Housing Group, which represents
developers of homes for the over55s, it is not just a case of elderly people
shunning dedicated retirement housing: they don’t have enough to choose
from. “Historically, retirement homes in Britain have been provided only for
the poor. There are a lot of crummy local authority sheltered bungalows, but
not enough accommodation attractive enough to tempt wealthier retired people
out of their family homes. What then happens is that an old lady stays in a
four-bedroom house and gets lonely and depressed. She worries about it being
broken into and lets the house decay around her.”
The private sector has built just 80,000 dedicated retirement housing units in
Britain; fewer than 3,000 are being added each year — half the number that
the Retirement Housing Group claims are needed.
“Some local authorities are opposed to retirement developments because they
see it as ghettoisation,” Aldred says. “Another problem is the government’s
targets for building on brownfield land. The ideal site for retirement
housing is in village and town centres, close to shops and the doctor’s
surgery.
“But with 75% of homes having to be built on brownfield land, everyone is
after these sites. Retirement housing tends to lose out because it needs
more unsaleable space for laundries and residents’ lounges, and because,
unlike young buyers, retired people are reluctant to buy off-plan.”
There is one way to attract retired buyers to dedicated retirement housing:
make the properties bigger. One developer that has prospered in recent years
is English Courtyard, which builds upmarket developments specifically for
the over55s. To call this “downsizing” would be stretching the term,
however: two-thirds of the company’s output is in the form of two-storey
houses, measuring an average of 1,000sq ft — a large enough footprint, as
Carol Geddes, public relations manager of English Courtyard, acknowledges,
in which to build a modern four-bedroom house.
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