From the very beginning, the premise and the promise of Barack Obama’s
campaign was that it would transcend race. And last autumn the Obama team
also knew this was the only way it could win.
The Clinton brand among black voters was so strong, so unbreakable, so
resilient a force that even the first credible black candidate for the
presidency remained stuck 20-30% behind Hillary Clinton among
African-American voters. She was, after all, the wife of the “first black
president”, as the author Toni Morrison called Bill.
She had almost all the black political establishment behind her. Her husband,
from his days in Arkansas during the civil rights movement, had forged a
deep, durable bond with black America. And Obama’s only hope as a young
insurgent was in winning a surprise victory in Iowa or New Hampshire, where
black votes were close to nonexistent.
A biracial man reared by one white mother and two white grandparents knew that
his ability to touch and inspire white voters was his greatest strength.
Especially among younger voters, it was critical. And this appeal wasn’t
geared only to white audiences. I will not forget a rally over a year ago,
filled with predominantly black donors and activists, when Obama recounted
how a supporter greeted him at the anniversary of Martin Luther King’s march
on Selma.
“That was a great celebration of African-American history,” the supporter
said, to which Obama immediately responded: “No, no, no, no, no. That was
not a great celebration of African-American history. That was a celebration
of American history.” The postracial appeal wasn’t just about necessity. It
was also Obama’s core conviction about his own political message.
And after the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, where Obama scored
extensive white support, the Clintons realised this as well. Flummoxed by
this young, charismatic pretender to their dynastic throne, they made a fateful
decision: not to compete aggressively for black votes, but to push Obama
into the “black candidate” box and leverage white ethnic and Hispanic
support instead. And as the Clintons’ losses mounted, the hints became
harder and harder to miss.
Before Super Tuesday, Clinton campaign operatives aired rumours that Obama had
been a drug dealer – hint, hint – in his younger days. When Obama scored a
landslide in South Carolina, Bill Clinton reminded the media that Jesse
Jackson had won the state as well. He called Obama a “kid”, perilously close
to calling him a “boy”, prompting the former Clinton operative Donna Brazile
to say: “I tell you, as an African-American, I find his words and his tone
to be very depressing.” The black civil rights icon John Lewis switched from
Clinton to Obama. When Clinton told white rural voters that Obama didn’t
care about “people like you”, it stung.
In the last months, the Clintons pushed the story about Jeremiah Wright
(Obama’s fiery pastor) hard, but the media did all the heavy lifting. The
Clintons shrewdly focused their efforts on older, white Democrats in Ohio,
Pennsylvania and Indiana (the kind who had once voted for Ronald Reagan) and
refused to shoot down categorically rumours that Obama was a closet Muslim,
and stopped even addressing predominantly black audiences in North Carolina.
Last Thursday, Senator Clinton – dazed from a brutal setback in last Tuesday’s
primaries – went even further. She told USA Today to consult an Associated
Press story “that found how Senator Obama’s support among working,
hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites
in both states who had not completed college were supporting me”.
Yes: a candidate was explicitly arguing that she was the candidate of white
Americans. No Republican would be so crude, certainly not John McCain. And
that became her primary rationale for carrying on. After North Carolina, the
short-term electoral costs have evaporated: West Virginia has a black
population of just 3.3%, Kentucky has 7.5%, Oregon has 1.9%, Montana and
South Dakota both have less than 1%. There are no black superdelegates
willing to switch from Obama to Clinton at this point.
And so a strategy that was essentially telling superdelegates that a black man
could not win the general election became Hillary’s last resort. In this,
the Clintons were egged on by the less principled members of the Republican
right.
Black Americans – skilled at judging when they are being dissed – got the
message. In last Tuesday’s North Carolina primary, Clinton got only 7% of
the black vote – a lower percentage than Nixon or Reagan had won in general
elections. If someone had told me last year that a Clinton would get less
than 10% of the black vote in a Democratic primary, I would have asked what
they were smoking. But in a few months, the Clintons have turned a 30-point
lead among African-Americans into a deficit of more than 80 points. No
constituency has swung as much over the past few months. And the black
turnout last Tuesday was massive.
Obama, mercifully, did not take the bait. Despite the Wright fiasco, he tried
mightily not to be racially pigeonholed, as he has his entire life. His
victory speech last Tuesday night was full of references to his
predominantly white family from Kansas and his love of America.
It was a shrewdly adjusted message. And more interestingly, it seemed to be
working – slowly. In Ohio, he won 34% of the white vote; in Pennsylvania, he
won 37%; in Indiana, he won 40%. The more the Clintons attempted to polarise
the voting racially, the more successful Obama was in deflecting it. His
rebuke of Wright probably helped. But also the profound media attention.
The more working-class white voters actually saw and heard of him, the more
their fears of the unknown seemed to subside. He won only 27% of white
voters without college degrees in Ohio; he won 29% in Pennsylvania and 34%
of them in Indiana. And when you look at age, the effect is even more
striking. In North Carolina, a southern state, Obama won 57% of white voters
under 30 and 45% of white voters under 40.
In the Clintons’ morphing into a crude version of racially angry Reagan
Democrats, you can see an almost Shakespearian tragedy. Bill Clinton has a
long and admirable record in civil rights; and was on the right side of the
struggle in the South in his youth. He has an effortless rapport with black
Americans, and they were his core final constituency of support in the
darkest days of impeachment.
But like any southerner, Clinton also knew how to navigate racial resentment.
In 1992, he interrupted the primary campaign to return to Arkansas to sign
the death warrant of a mentally retarded black man. He made a point of
attacking the radical black hip hop artist Sister Souljah in his first
campaign. He signed off on welfare reform. His genius was in holding
together a coalition that included enough Reagan Democrats to win, while
never losing wide and deep black support.
But he never ran against a black candidate and neither did his wife. They are
used to loving and supporting minorities – as long as the minorities know
their place and see the Clintons as the instrument of their salvation. Obama
broke that dependency and that relationship. And that was why the Clintons
had to do all they could to destroy and belittle and besmirch him.
But in that venture the Clintons are destroying themselves and their legacy
and their capacity to bridge the very gaps they now must widen to stay in
the race. It is a Clinton tragedy – and one that most Americans seem slowly,
cautiously but palpably determined not to make their own.
Andrew,you know them so well. I lived in Arkansas a long time, during the time he was Governor and ran for and won the Presidency.We had a friend who worked in the Clinton White House. I could tell you so many stories!! The Clintons are NOT nice people.They will throw any friend under the bus!
Sherry Cloud, Nashville, United States
Obama should win. By the time he finishes his first term, oil will be at $400 a barrel and he will be lucky to win a mayoral election, let alone get re-elected. Let him win I say.
Nathan, Surrey,
Lets be frank Sullivan - their legacy wasn't much to begin with. Lets hope they do the decent thing and disappear into obscurity, taking the Blairs (and their collective egos) with them - doubtful given how power hungry they are.
Arthur, London,
Finally, someone that's telling it like it is.
THANK YOU, Andrew Sullivan, thank you!
I would never have believed any of what you wrote here before until we in the Black American community saw it up close and personal. We loved the Clintons and they felt like family. But sadly no more.
Stella, Illinois, USA
Next time Andrew you fancy taking time out to indulge in some good old fashioned Hillary bashing (it has become 'virtually normal!') remember this that it is not Obama that is winning, it's misogyny! As a coloured man I can tell you It's not racism to point out the obvious elphant in the room!
Ad, London ,
While I think Obama is quite shallow as a candidate and dishonest in his self-portrayal on the campaign trail, I will not shed a single tear to see the back of Hillary Clinton. Let's hope that the shadow of the "House of Clinton", as your paper termed it, never darkens US political life again.
Ben, Ottawa, Canada
I can see some nasty Republican tactics in some the posts I have read. They call themselves Democrats who no way will vote for Obama because he is inexperienced and has a far left voting record!!! These people are really sly operatives for the Republican right and not interested in truth or decency.
Leslie, Penang, Malaysia
I support Obama because I see hope for a different type of America if he is elected President. Not to mention, the prospect of the United States regaining some of its international prestige and trust which has suffered under this Bush Administration. As a people, we have to do better.
N. Jones, Greensboro, NC, USA
Why is it that all the pundits insist on disenfranchising voters, when the primary is actually not over! Clinton could actually win the primary. Just look at the predictions for W. Virginia and Kentucky, she is ahead by some estimates as much as 60%. She would win against McCain, Obama might not.
Michael Daniels, Doylestown, PA, USA
dan, and what exactly more has obama done for blacks than the clintons in the united states to make them prefer him by 90% now?
jeff, concord, RI
The most appalling thing the Clinton's have done in recent weeks, is to run in West Virginia and Kentucky. To prove what?
To prove what we already know, that Dixie States have hundreds of years to go before they would vote for a smart young black Yankee.
They have set the US back 40 years
adrian, annapolis,
Obama has the support of America haters from George Soros to the president of Iran. All the adolescent idealist gushing about another of Sullivan's "insightful" propaganda hate tracts can look forward to the total betrayal of their country by a left-wing extremist if Obama is elected.
MikeS, London,
This is an intuitive and inciteful article. As an African American, I find that the author has correctly articulated the position of most the the African Americans I know.
Cassandra T. Savoy, East Orange, USA
When will someone write the obvious: Obama is not an African-American. He is half white and half black.
In the US you cannot find anyone who is 100% anything. Why do Americans still have problems with this ? They are all mixed and that is their strength.
Bondy, Paris,
I am an African American woman who, after Iowa and New Hampshire, switched her support from Clinton to Obama. It was not as if I was angry at Senator Clinton - it was just that the Black man shpwed himself to be a better and viable candidate for President, I'm angry with her, now.
R. LYNETTE COPELAND, BUFFALO, NY, USA
I have read a part of Obama's book The Audacity of Hope; and intend to finish it this week; last candidate I know of who wrote a decent book was Kennedy, and his Profiles of Courage.
However, have been distracted by a friend obtaining Carl Bernstein's A WOMAN IN CHARGE. Absolutely frightening!
Mary Meagher, Oxford, United Kingdom
I'm a hard-working, white American who would walk 500 miles to vote for Obama before I'd even consider voting for Clinton. She has had an incredible number of chances in the primary to show that she has class or even an iota of scruples, and every single time she has failed. Great article-thank you.
Adan, Brooklyn, USA
This was well written. The Clintons have managed to lose much of their 'magic' with this senior white woman in this campaign process. I now believe this country would truly suffer with a Clinton in our White House (or the Vice Pres house)
Mary from TN, Maryville, usa/TN
Brilliant article. The Clinton legacy has been remembered like many things that went terribly wrong by remembering only the good parts. America is so ready for a new direction, none of this two families running the nation and Obama can break us away from this dynastic duo. No coronations!
Obama '08
Shelby, New York City,
I just heard on NPR that Clinton is expected to do well in West Virginia because the electorate in that state is dominated by older white people with little education.
How sad. I suspect Bill is going along with this only out of loyalty to Hillary, not because he likes the direction she is taking.
Ralph, Cherry Hill, NJ, USA
Andrew, this is absolutely one of the best pieces written. Thank you!
Karen, Indianapolis ,
That was really well - worded - my favorite was this...
They are used to loving and supporting minorities – as long as the minorities know their place and see the Clintons as the instrument of their salvation
Couldn't have said it better myself - thank you!
Ariana Morris, LA, USA
You have to hand it to Obama, he "markets" himself very well indeed.
Charisma Gains, Scotland, UK
Andrew: as an on again, off again fan i am impressed at your eloquent and thoughtful article. I will be emailing this to a number of my friends that continue to push the Hillary can win ticket. I have no problem with her staying in, I do have a problem with her destruction of Democratic tenets.
lynchie, Kittanning, Pa., us
Well said!
rws, Milwaukee, USA
Instead if using Andrew Young and Geraldine Ferraro, she said it herself.
Laura, Bassett, USA
Thank you. It was a pleasure to read an insightful article on this subject. Though I have been an Obama supporter from the very start of this race, I had always admired and respected both Clintons. Their behavior in this primary, however, has disgusted and disappointed me.
Jess, Berlin, USA
Brilliant article. This man Obama is a type of man that only comes once in a generation. Just watch, He is going to be the best president America has ever seen.
A.E Alade, Manchester, United Kingdom
Sometimes, it takes a Brit to understand America! Thank you.
JJ, Columbus, US
What an insightful articulate article!!! I'll have to read more of your work. Thank-you!
Gary Ray Betz, Dunwoody, USA
Great article, thanks. I'm favorably inclined to Obama, though I would like to know more of what "change" he intends to implement. (Clinton has offered ideas. I merely happen to think they are rubbish.) With the rest, I think we'll be hearing more from Obama in the future (perhaps in '12 or '16?).
Dan, Small Town, New England (US)
Very well said, Kudos on you speaking the truth on this matter.As a black man I was always bewildered as to why black people were so in love with the Clintons. It is also so great to see Toni Morrison eat her words !! Thanks for the great article. Peace
Majesty, Brooklyn, NY
Obama has also re-invented himself, but one can only hope that unlike the Clintons, he does not revert to type. "Revd" Wright will haunt Obama in the months and weeks to come- a twenty year friendship ditched in a day.
Chris Gillibrand, Brussels, Belgium
Win or lose the Presidency this year, Barack Obama is the future leader of a better America. And, as with many other Americans, because of conduct, he will be my leader into the distant future. Even if John McCain wins, I and countless others will be paying more attention to Obama than to McCain.
digbydolben, Albuquerque, USA
wow,
Now thats what i call journalism. :)
nicholas kamau, raleigh, u.s.a
BRAVO. You hit the nail on the head, Sullivan. Keep up the great work. You've been an important voice in this election. Don't ever stand down. The next President of the United States, Barack Obama, will be grateful, and so will I. Thanks
Christie, Ellicott City, USA
As a US Citizen living in the UK since Jan 2005, I really do hope that Barack wins. The US does not need 4 more years of Bush courtesy of a McCain presidency.
The comments about Barack's inexperience. Personally, that's what attracts me the most. He hasn't been around long enough to be jaded.
Robert, Croydon,
Great piece. Distilled everything perfectly.
Christiaan, London,
Andrew, I found your observation very enlighting and a case very well put out. Thnaks. Rodez, France
Nicolas Revel, Rodez, France
I'm a registered Democrat who will vote for Obama. He represents me, he represents the majority of Americans and his core following represents basic democratic values.
John Tower, saint petersburg, usa
Wow. This article has a lot of insight and thoroughly though out. This may be the real reason that the Hillary Clinton's campaign just whithered.
Anthony, Funabashi, Japan
He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Anyone being loyal for 20 years to this crackpot pastor does not belong in government, let alone be president. What if McCain's mentor was a great dragon of the clan and McCain made excuses for him? But blacks get passes just like children get passes.
Enough said.
Klaus Beyer, Chicago, IL, USA/IL
So Hillary has the support of white lover class hard working Americans. So Barrack has the support of the black lower class hard working Americans. He can say it, she can't. Only in the UK can you read junk like this.
John, Columbia, SC, USA
Andew, I am an African who has lived in the UK since the early 1960's and has cautiously been followiing the political going-ons in the present Democratic debate in the USA. Brilliant, you have said it all I could not have imagined it any other way.
John Asare-Bediako Addai, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, United Kingdom
What is wrong with mentioning white voters when the blacks do mention the importance of race (often in a reverse way) and vote 90% plus for the black candidate? Try to play the reverse (replace white by black) and see where you get. This is not racism it is reality.
Simon Theobald, London,
Excellent analysis, passionate stuff!
Henry Scott Stokes, Tokyo
henry scott stokes, Tokyo, Japan
Um..."No Republican would be so crude..." C'mon!
"A 2 year senator with little legislative accomplishments, a far-left voting record, and no economic or foreign policy experience will not get my vote." That's two years more experience than the current president.
Gene Touchet, Palm Springs, California, U.S.A.
Mr. Sullivan is making a mountain out of molehill, and, in the process, playing the race card himself. When Hillary Clinton made reference to white voters she was clearly speaking about a demographic segment in which she has support. No more offensive than if Obama had made same about black voters
BrandonFox, Worcester, USA
I wish we weren't subjected to all these demographic statistics from exit polls. It completely glues the debate to race and infects people's language - good point in the article about Hillary parrotting the statistic about whites.
Johnny, London,
Your article refers to the Clinton brand, wife of, her husband, the Clintons (nine times), the Clintons’ losses, and a Clinton tragedy. Bill Clinton's name is mentioned more than Hilary's and most of the anecdotes are about him. Even responces by readers mention the Clintons. Who is the candidate?
M.Khan, Peterborough, UK
Tom (Dayton), you just dont get it, do you? Obama's core following is intelligent educated people who can see through the biases to the true core of a candidate's character. I only hope there are enough Americans like this for him to win in Nov, but with responses like yours I fear for the worst
Stuart, England,
As a Brit with no axe to grind, it does seem to me that the best of both Clintons is in the past. Obama, on the other hand, win or lose (and I think Mcain will beat him) is a man we will hear much from in the future. Good luck Black America; It didn't go right this time.
Eric Skeltons, Cardiff, Wales
Obama has rekindled in many Americans hearts the idealism that we learned as children about what America should be---to strive for a "more perfect union" as stated in our Declaration of Independence back in 1776. As Americans, we need to look to our past ideals to dictate our future in the world.
Greg D., Cincinnati, U.S.A.
Mrs. Clinton did not lose votes because she and President Clinton gave up on black voters or "played the race card." Black voters decided on their own to support a black man who they reasoned had a good chance to become President of the United States. (Jesse Jackson held out no such hope.)
Robert Dare, Clinton, Missouri, USA
I do find it interesting that the love of power can and will destroy the most capable of people. The Clinton's first mistake was to over look the genius of this up-and-coming young man. Then they decided to become republicans and trash his reputation. This was a great article. Thank you.
James, Pembroke, usa
It would be a great day not only for America but for the world were Barack Obama to take the White House. Alas I don't think America is ready and we will see John McCain at the helm. I hope I am wrong!
Olivia Thompson, Cape Town, South Africa
Obama has dictated the terms of the contest from the beginning. He has the ability to set the ground rules, and get others to fight on his terms. Surely that is what is needed?
Tiresias, Johannesburg, South Africa
It is shameful that voters who do not believe Obama is qualified to be president are being called racist. A 2 year senator with little legislative accomplishments, a far-left voting record, and no economic or foreign policy experience will not get my vote. I would vote for a qualified black man.
Karen, NY,
An excellent column, Mr. Sullivan, as usual.
It's worth mentioning that Sen. Obama grew up in Hawaii, where almost everyone is of mixed race--it's a point of pride to be part white, part Asian, part black--his face is truly the face of the American future.
Aloha! Obama '08!
Lynda Durrant, Kula, Hawaii, U.S.A.
Excellent, well-argued and objective analysis.
Beng Low, Chiangmai, Thailand
A tragedy it has been, especially for those of us who saw the Clintons as historic figures, and then watching them choose division over ethics, integrity. Fortunately it has forced us to get to know Obama and that is refreshing.
Shannon, Seattle, USA
I hope for , Obama's sake, he loses to McCain in 2008 by a narrow margin and wins the presidential race in 2012. A loss to McCain in 2008 will make him palatable to the whites Mrs Clinton was referring to who will not vote for him. he will also be 50 and better equipped to be president.
Ted Baines, New York, USA
A well presented state of affairs in the United States. It was hard to watch Hillary Clinton's gimmick on SNL and wonder if this was going to be the next joker representing America !!! The Texas debate clearly showed the cunning way Clinton has with words compared to Obama, who remained a gentleman.
Sonal Scott, London, UK
I'm so gratified that my fellow Americans are finally seeing the Clintons as I have seen them since the 1990's. They are leaving their mark in the form of a coarsened culture and political polarization. Your second-to-last paragraph states it beautifully!
Mrs. P, Raleigh, USA
Ahh, sweet justice watching Democrats "see the light" as regards the Clinton's. It's a task history usually takes up long after everyone is dead.
Not a word above hadn't been predicted ten, twenty years ago by countless individuals who knew the Clinton's well.
Clinton tragedy? No. Karma.
patrick neid, san francisco,
Polls consistently show that the majority of Americans will vote for an African American candidate for President. Colin Powell would likely win in a walk were he to choose to run. This election is really about where the candidates fall on the political spectrum - left to right.
Martin, Miami, USA
Superb analysis. A sad time for the Clintons, but a time of great opportunity for America. Obama is the right leader at the right time.
Angelo Costanzo, Shippensburg, PA, U.S.A.
Obama mentions his white mother and white grandparents at every opportunity. Were he above race he wouldn't. He's a standout candidate because of his mixed race background - he's the first, that's his USP. The rest is less interesting, biring even. Against McCain it will be about age.
Tom Moncrieff, London, England
Very well argued. Obama has navigated past Hillary's negative tactics. Bill Clinton has been a large problem for her campaign. Remind me of his great achievements in office. America may still be racially divided but it's heart is now in the right place, and Obama has a fresh progressive approach.
paul freeman, London, England
I'm a registered democrat who will under no circumstances vote for Obama. He doesn't represent me, he doesn't represent the majority of Americans and his core following fails to represent basic democratic values.
Tom. , Dayton, OH. USA,
Brilliant and insightful! You have captured the core issue: blacks and other marginalised communites are 'tolerated' as long as they are loving, supportive, know their place and accept others as their instruments of salvation. Obama has challenged this unstated premise, P Chatterjee,Delhi
Patralekha Chatterjee, Delhi, India
ANDREW, I must say, your title in the article was eye-catching, arresting and caught my attention in a way that few headlines do. Well done.
frank , new york, usa
Your article is a great analysis and well-written. You've captured the essence of two power-hungry gluttons destroying themselves and seriously damaging the main hope we have to recover from the Bush disaster.
Michael Minard, Boulder, CO, U.S.A.
What a thoughtful and wonderfully-written column! What are our chances of persuading you to write more often?
John Reid, Wellington, New Zealand
Perhaps the huge black vote for Obama will backfire on him if he does become the candidate.
Many white voters, while not racist, are slightly disturbed about this 90 percent plus block vote..
DW, London,
Mr. Sullivan, I must commend you on your fine, honest work and support for Barack Obama. It was your cover story in the Atlantic Magazine months back that made me a believer. Keep up the great work in making Barack Obama the first bi-racial president.
Jimmie Griffin, Waterbury, USA
I don't believe for one minute that this is some sort of Clinton tragedy. Rather I believe that for the very first time we are seeing and hearing from the TRUE Bill and Hillary Clinton. We don't need these type people in the White House or in the U.S. Senate!
Richard, Knoxville, USA
I am glad you wrote this. It certainly refutes the conventional wisdom that the Clintons are looking for a gracious way to exit from the campaign. They are still hoping that the New York/Washington D.C. media will destroy Obama's campaign. He needs an economic message for white working class voters.
Bill Rush, Chicago, United States
Another quite excellent analysis. The significance of younger voters not voting for Mrs Clinton was lost on her campaign and the recent USA Today interview was beyond comprehension. Mrs Clinton represents the past however, after Bush jnr it is clear that Americans are very much looking to the future
Donovan Wright, Reading, Berkshire,
yes i agree elle, bronx, usa. I think the problem lies in the fact people keep using the terms black voters and white voters. Media keeps us divided through simple use of language. why are all black voters grouped together in a category as if to say they are all alike and different from white voters
Jamie, Townsville, Australia
Interesting to note that you call a UK paper "our media" yet you reside in the US.
Media is what you make of it. Every source has its bias.
Greg, Ottawa, Canada
Obama has all the proper qualities and norm to be the next president for USA. Nicely written article. All the best, Obama.
Mun, Champaign, USA
Politics is a full contact sport. The issue of race is buried deep into the American psyche and cannot be avoided in this first race in which a minority candidate is heading a national ticket. If, as I suspect, the issue is surmounted in November, it is unlikely to be as large an issue next time.
oldasiahand, Guildford, UK
insightful and right on
ashish k, san francisco, usa
Like most in the media, you're taking snippets from speeches and turning it against the Clintons in order to justify your candidate's appeal. Exit polls use the language "White, working-class, non-college educated" and that is why Hillary references it as well. Our media is the real tragedy!
Elle, Bronx, USA
bravo! bravo!
Tony, Los Angeles, USA