Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
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The Bank of England is now actively discussing whether to cut interest rates, official minutes from its Monetary Policy Committee show.
Experts said that the mood of the rate-setting MPC was shifting towards a cut after the Bank’s official minutes revealed yesterday that the issue was debated at its October meeting and one member voted in favour of a cut.
Most analysts believe that the Bank will wait until early next year before taking action. But the minutes suggest that the Bank has given itself room to slash rates as soon as next month if the turmoil in the financial markets returns.
The MPC has given out mixed messages in recent weeks over how quickly it should take action after the credit crisis in the summer that led to a run on Northern Rock.
While the committee does not want to be seen to bail out struggling banks by lowering rates, the crisis is expected to deliver a blow to the economy’s growth over the coming months as the financial sector struggles to cope with a tougher climate.
Mervyn King, the Bank’s Governor, has tried to dampen speculation that a rate cut could come as soon as next month, saying that he remained on the alert for a series of persistent risks over inflation.
Official figures on wages released yesterday supported that view. The data from the Office for National Statistics showed that earnings growth, including bonuses, rose to an annual pace of 3.7 per cent in August from 3.5 per cent the previous month. A Reuters poll yesterday showed that only one in four City economists expected rates to be cut before next year.
But the minutes suggested that several Bank officials would like to move swiftly, noting that “a precautionary reduction in Bank Rate could forestall a sharper slowdown in output growth” caused by worsening credit conditions and the risk of a slowdown in Europe and the US.
Some members of the MPC argued that if they did cut rates and the crisis eased they could raise them later. Others said that the economy was in “a position of strength”, which gave the MPC time to wait and see how markets reacted. Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said: “While most members believe that the downside risks to the economy have increased, they apparently see little urgency to act.”
The figures from the ONS suggested that the labour market continued to tighten last month. The number claiming jobseeker’s allowance fell by 12,800 in September, bringing the number of claimants to 835,800, the lowest since March 2005.
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Even if BoE lower the interest rate, it might not filter through to consumers that quickly. Banks tend to benefit from it instantly as their borrowing costs would be lower.
Mortgage rates will still remain high, especillay most products are +0.5 to +1% at least. So a 0.25 pts down would not help at all. Most people also have fixed mortgage rates, so for BoE to revise downward will not instantly help consumers.
Remember the main motivation of revising downward is not due to mortgage trouble within the UK but more from the international financial crisis that might spread from the USA. It looks unavoidable for now, and if the interest rates do ever go down, it cannot be view as good news for home owners but rather it is bad news for the country as a whole. Business will be hit by the crisis as we all can see job losses are spreading in some parts of the UK. And very likely we would see this trend going into 2008.
Jimmy Yang, Cardiff, UK
The public cannot be trusted to make their own choices in obtaining credit! Spending has been out of control for far too long. The rates should have risen a long time ago along with increased regulation.
If rates are reduced without improved regulation then we will be in a far worse position in 2 years time!
The government is going to have to make big decisions and quickly.
Simon Ward, Bournemouth,
These people who are talking about raising interest rates even more - are they mad or just completely heartless? (Mike, Bournemouth)
I want rates to rise so that the market crashes and I am able to afford a house- something that millions of young professionals like myself have been unable to do due to people lying about their income on self- certificate mortgages and being offered cheap deals to purchase buy to let properties. Personally, I think it's 'heartless' to allow a situation to continue that has put house prices at 9 times average income, is swallowing up the greatest percentage of income on housing for 17 years and locks hard working people out of ever owning their own home. Bring it on I say!
Dan, Oxford, England
Backwardation in £ futures suggest 1st Qtr '08 reduction but not until then. Maybe the BofE will wait until preliminary figures for retail sales emerge for Christmas and if there is blood on the carpet, act. The BofE consistently overstates the risk of inflation and if fear of stoking further house price inflation were not an issue UK rates should be comparable to EU.
Michael, Lincoln, UK
These people who are talking about raising interest rates even more - are they mad or just completely heartless? What do they want to happen to the normal people who have a normal job and mortgage? its so expensive to live at the moment and they want to make it even worse. Yeah, its alright if you're old live mortgage free and have savings or if you're loaded but what about the tens/hundred of thousands of people who are young, don't have savings (because its not possible to save any money) but have bought a house on a hefty mortgage and the rate increases make it harder and harder to live. To have anymore rate rises would be absolutely crippling, they have to come down so people can actually start to live without constantly worrying about money.
Mike, Bournemouth,
The BoE is quite right to try to keep inflation down, especially while the government is busy printing money as fast as it can. High inflation is a disaster for any society and is definitively not the way to get out of a housing crisis coupled with excessive debt. A bit more honesty about the true rate of inflation, though it would hand the public sector unions a nice negotiating present, would be ideal. Anyone shopping on a daily basis can see that the rate is not 1.8% and and the ONS is doing itself no favours by choosing baskets that result in politically-skewed low outcomes.
Colin, Shrewsbury,
The BOE must keep inflation low. If it were to lower the rate to further ease the money supply, inflation will take off, the pound will devalue and anyone with sense will move their UK holdings to foreign securities and assets. This will further weaken the pound and cause a 'Black Wedneday' type situation.
Nowithstanding 9/11 attacks and the internet bubble, there can be no excuse for our leaders to have allowed this spending binge to carry on for so long. Simply put, the Labour Government has lead us to a record balance of payments deficit, record public debt, record private debt and is now 'between a rock and a hard place'. Gordon Brown must realise that it is 'check mate' and ought to resign and allow urgent action to put our economy back on a more sustainable course. I would not be surprised to see a reintroduction of exhange controls and tighter regulated consumer credit.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
Look at the oil price, inflation in China etc.
Inflation is probably set to rise, a cut now will merely keep the bubble going longer and make a bigger bang in two years time!
Rate cuts were made without regard to the housing market, so it should not influence rate rises.
Chris, Portsmouth,
I I I I ... Don't believe it!
And that won't be inflationary will it?
Does Prime Minister (Crash) Gordon Brown Unelect really want to have to go back to the IMF in 18 months time?
Oh dear oh dear oh dear....
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
They cant lower the rates, the reason being, it would be a total disaster for sterling and a return to the irresponsible lending and if you think that the inflation rate is really 1.8%, you are seriously living in a bubble. They need to jack the rates up in my opinion to stem it.
Laurance Allen, Bodrum, Turkey
if the BOE were to cut interest rates every time there was the tiniest worbble in the financial markets, they would soon become a discredited force as an inflation-fighting central bank. The role of the central bank is to maintain sound money, first and foremost. OK, so Northern Rock slipped up because of the nature of their business model (excessive reliance on capital markets for funding), but the contagion does not appear to have spread to other banks or even other sectors of the economy. The bank is quite right to hold rates; as of right now, the case for any kind of rate cut is absolutely not made.
gavin walsh, london,
The problem was caused by lowering interest rates in the first place! There was, and remains, too much credit in the system. You can't avoid inflation by injecting even more money into it. As to the people that paid too much for their homes - let them suffer.
Chris, London,
Yes, print more money! That's the solution! Avoid a crash at all costs by sending signals to people that risks don't matter and savings are pointless! Spend spend spend, and rack up the debts - after all, sterling will be worth half as much in five years as it is now, so buy ten grand's worth of stuff now, secure in the knowledge that the debt will be socialised and savers will pick up half the tab. Who needs savers anyway? All they do is put into society far more than they take out.
And stuff all foreign holders of sterling as well. Caveat emptor! Hee hee! (Pulls lever of fifty pound note printing press.)
Dave, Vancouver, Canada
The Bank of England did not give the small rate increases time to adjust the economy. It takes longer than a month for the effect to be felt,the bank should have acted far more cautiously, and seen the outcome of their rises,it seems a bit stupid and very negative ,the results you see now. One can not have a society where it says okay, businesses that have borrowed too much or are not big enough to absorb £10,000,000 reduction in profits will be allowed to go bust, or sorry chaps but your mortgage is too big you will loose your house.Nor can a society that does not really tackle the vastly overexpensive property problem,We could build incredibly cheap timber houses that would last a lifetime,and not have to have all our time spent on working to pay a mortgage.It does not seem that anyone really wants to get to grips with the problem, because no one has.
michael, truro, UK
I would think it prudent to cut rates ASAP rather than wait for further damage to occur. Surely prevention is better than cure? Maybe if the BofE had been more proactive a few months ago the 'crunch' may have just been a 'squeeze'.
Steve, Glos, UK
The problem in the first place was caused by rising interest rates as the B of E was too busy trying to keep inflation down. In a democratic society they should have been trying to help the public first and foremost, not the corporations. What on earth are they waiting for now? The US, for all it's faults, quickly took action to reduce rates a little - to ease the plight of borrowers as much as anything. We need the return of confidence to the financial system, and any talk of falls in any market, which is pure speculation anyway, should not be mentioned (even by the IMF) as it can only alarm the public and become self-perpetuating. Far better they report on opportunities for profit if they want to say anything useful.
france scicluna, Bromley, Kent